TY - JOUR A1 - Gaigall, Daniel A1 - Gerstenberg, Julian T1 - Cramér-von-Mises tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level JF - Journal of Nonparametric Statistics N2 - The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples. KW - Cramér-von-Mises test KW - conditional excess distribution KW - confidence interval KW - goodness-of-fit test Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10485252.2023.2173958 SN - 1048-5252 (Print) SN - 1029-0311 (Online) PB - Taylor & Francis ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gaigall, Daniel ED - AitSahlia, Farid T1 - Allocating and forecasting changes in risk JF - Journal of risk N2 - We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study. KW - portfolio risk KW - allocation KW - forecast KW - covariance principle KW - conditional expectation principle Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2022.048 SN - 1755-2842 SN - 1465-1211 VL - 25 IS - 3 SP - 1 EP - 24 PB - Infopro Digital Risk CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects JF - Statistics : A Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics N2 - We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application. KW - central symmetry test KW - exchangeability test KW - independence test KW - random effects KW - not identically distributed Y1 - 2023 SN - 0323-3944 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02331888.2023.2193748 SN - 1029-4910 VL - 57 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baringhaus, Ludwig A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - A goodness-of-fit test for the compound Poisson exponential model JF - Journal of Multivariate Analysis N2 - On the basis of bivariate data, assumed to be observations of independent copies of a random vector (S,N), we consider testing the hypothesis that the distribution of (S,N) belongs to the parametric class of distributions that arise with the compound Poisson exponential model. Typically, this model is used in stochastic hydrology, with N as the number of raindays, and S as total rainfall amount during a certain time period, or in actuarial science, with N as the number of losses, and S as total loss expenditure during a certain time period. The compound Poisson exponential model is characterized in the way that a specific transform associated with the distribution of (S,N) satisfies a certain differential equation. Mimicking the function part of this equation by substituting the empirical counterparts of the transform we obtain an expression the weighted integral of the square of which is used as test statistic. We deal with two variants of the latter, one of which being invariant under scale transformations of the S-part by fixed positive constants. Critical values are obtained by using a parametric bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic behavior of the tests is discussed. A simulation study demonstrates the performance of the tests in the finite sample case. The procedure is applied to rainfall data and to an actuarial dataset. A multivariate extension is also discussed. KW - Bootstrapping KW - Collective risk model Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2022.105154 SN - 0047-259X SN - 1095-7243 VL - 195 IS - Article 105154 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - On Consistent Hypothesis Testing In General Hilbert Spaces N2 - Inference on the basis of high-dimensional and functional data are two topics which are discussed frequently in the current statistical literature. A possibility to include both topics in a single approach is working on a very general space for the underlying observations, such as a separable Hilbert space. We propose a general method for consistently hypothesis testing on the basis of random variables with values in separable Hilbert spaces. We avoid concerns with the curse of dimensionality due to a projection idea. We apply well-known test statistics from nonparametric inference to the projected data and integrate over all projections from a specific set and with respect to suitable probability measures. In contrast to classical methods, which are applicable for real-valued random variables or random vectors of dimensions lower than the sample size, the tests can be applied to random vectors of dimensions larger than the sample size or even to functional and high-dimensional data. In general, resampling procedures such as bootstrap or permutation are suitable to determine critical values. The idea can be extended to the case of incomplete observations. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm for implementing the method. Examples are given for testing goodness-of-fit in a one-sample situation in [1] or for testing marginal homogeneity on the basis of a paired sample in [2]. Here, the test statistics in use can be seen as generalizations of the well-known Cramérvon-Mises test statistics in the one-sample and two-samples case. The treatment of other testing problems is possible as well. By using the theory of U-statistics, for instance, asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are obtained as the sample size tends to infinity. Standard continuity assumptions ensure the asymptotic exactness of the tests under the null hypothesis and that the tests detect any alternative in the limit. Simulation studies demonstrate size and power of the tests in the finite sample case, confirm the theoretical findings, and are used for the comparison with concurring procedures. A possible application of the general approach is inference for stock market returns, also in high data frequencies. In the field of empirical finance, statistical inference of stock market prices usually takes place on the basis of related log-returns as data. In the classical models for stock prices, i.e., the exponential Lévy model, Black-Scholes model, and Merton model, properties such as independence and stationarity of the increments ensure an independent and identically structure of the data. Specific trends during certain periods of the stock price processes can cause complications in this regard. In fact, our approach can compensate those effects by the treatment of the log-returns as random vectors or even as functional data. Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.11159/icsta22.157 N1 - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Statistics: Theory and Applications (ICSTA’22) Prague, Czech Republic – July 28- 30 SP - Paper No. 157 PB - Avestia Publishing CY - Orléans, Kanada ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baringhaus, Ludwig A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - Efficiency comparison of the Wilcoxon tests in paired and independent survey samples JF - Metrika N2 - The efficiency concepts of Bahadur and Pitman are used to compare the Wilcoxon tests in paired and independent survey samples. A comparison through the length of corresponding confidence intervals is also done. Simple conditions characterizing the dominance of a procedure are derived. Statistical tests for checking these conditions are suggested and discussed. KW - Wilcoxon tests KW - Pitman efficiency KW - Bahadur efficiency KW - Length of confidence intervals KW - Kernel density estimator Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00184-018-0661-4 SN - 1435-926X VL - 2018 IS - 81 SP - 891 EP - 930 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baringhaus, Ludwig A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - On Hotelling’s T² test in a special paired sample case JF - Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods N2 - In a special paired sample case, Hotelling’s T² test based on the differences of the paired random vectors is the likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the paired random vectors have the same mean; with respect to a special group of affine linear transformations it is the uniformly most powerful invariant test for the general alternative of a difference in mean. We present an elementary straightforward proof of this result. The likelihood ratio test for testing the hypothesis that the covariance structure is of the assumed special form is derived and discussed. Applications to real data are given. KW - complete block symmetry KW - Hotelling’s T² test KW - likelihood ratio test KW - uniformly most powerful invariant test Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610926.2017.1408828 SN - 1532-415X VL - 48 IS - 2 SP - 257 EP - 267 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baringhaus, Ludwig A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - Hotelling’s T² tests in paired and independent survey samples: An efficiency comparison JF - Journal of Multivariate Analysis N2 - Hotelling’s T² tests in paired and independent survey samples are compared using the traditional asymptotic efficiency concepts of Hodges–Lehmann, Bahadur and Pitman, as well as through criteria based on the volumes of corresponding confidence regions. Conditions characterizing the superiority of a procedure are given in terms of population canonical correlation type coefficients. Statistical tests for checking these conditions are developed. Test statistics based on the eigenvalues of a symmetrized sample cross-covariance matrix are suggested, as well as test statistics based on sample canonical correlation type coefficients. Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2016.11.004 SN - 0047-259X VL - 2017 IS - 154 SP - 177 EP - 198 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baringhaus, Ludwig A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - On an independence test approach to the goodness-of-fit problem JF - Journal of Multivariate Analysis N2 - Let X₁,…,Xₙ be independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution F. Assuming that there are measurable functions f:R²→R and g:R²→R characterizing a family F of distributions on the Borel sets of R in the way that the random variables f(X₁,X₂),g(X₁,X₂) are independent, if and only if F∈F, we propose to treat the testing problem H:F∈F,K:F∉F by applying a consistent nonparametric independence test to the bivariate sample variables (f(Xᵢ,Xⱼ),g(Xᵢ,Xⱼ)),1⩽i,j⩽n,i≠j. A parametric bootstrap procedure needed to get critical values is shown to work. The consistency of the test is discussed. The power performance of the procedure is compared with that of the classical tests of Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises in the special cases where F is the family of gamma distributions or the family of inverse Gaussian distributions. KW - Goodness-of-fit test KW - Independence test KW - Parametric bootstrap KW - Vapnik–Čhervonenkis class KW - Gamma distribution Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2015.05.013 SN - 0047-259X VL - 2015 IS - 140 SP - 193 EP - 208 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Gaigall, Daniel T1 - Vergleich von statistischen Tests im verbundenen und unabhängigen Stichprobenfall N2 - Es werden Effizienzbegriffe zum Vergleich von statistischen Tests basierend auf verschiedenen statistischen Experimenten eingeführt. Dabei handelt es sich um die schon aus dem Vergleich von statistischen Tests in je demselben Modell bekannten asymptotischen relativen Effizienzen wie die Hodges-Lehmann-Effizienz, die Bahadur-Effizienz und die Pitman-Effizienz sowie um Kriterien basierend auf Volumina von Konfidenzbereichen. Effizienzaussagen werden unter anderem für Likelihood-Quotienten-Tests und Waldsche Tests im Rahmen eines allgemeinen multivariaten parametrischen Modells erhalten. Statistische Tests zur Prüfung von Hypothesen über die relative Wirksamkeit zweier Experimente werden vorgeschlagen. Auf der Grundlage der erhaltenen Ergebnisse erfolgt ein Vergleich der Wirksamkeit von korrespondierenden Verfahren bei verbundener Stichprobenerhebung und unabhängiger Stichprobenerhebung. Die Rolle der Kovarianzmatrix bei verbundener Stichprobenerhebung wird insbesondere unter der Annahme, dass die zugrunde liegenden Verteilungen durch k-parametrische Exponentialfamilien modellierbar sind, herausgearbeitet. Verbindungen zu Effizienzbegriffen bei Punkt- und Konfidenzbereichsschätzverfahren werden aufgezeigt. Ausführlichere Untersuchungen betreffen die korrespondierenden Hotellingschen T²-Tests im multivariaten Normalverteilungsfall, die klassischen Homogenitatstests bei k × k-Kontingenztafeln und die Wilcoxon Tests in nichtparametrischen Lagealternativmodellen KW - Vergleich von Experimenten KW - Hypothesentests KW - Effizienz KW - testing hypotheses KW - efficiency Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.15488/8678 N1 - Dissertation, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2016 PB - Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover CY - Hannover ER -