@article{GaigallGerstenberg2023, author = {Gaigall, Daniel and Gerstenberg, Julian}, title = {Cram{\´e}r-von-Mises tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level}, series = {Journal of Nonparametric Statistics}, journal = {Journal of Nonparametric Statistics}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, issn = {1048-5252 (Print)}, doi = {10.1080/10485252.2023.2173958}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The Cram{\´e}r-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cram{\´e}r-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2023, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Allocating and forecasting changes in risk}, series = {Journal of risk}, volume = {25}, journal = {Journal of risk}, number = {3}, editor = {AitSahlia, Farid}, publisher = {Infopro Digital Risk}, address = {London}, issn = {1755-2842}, doi = {10.21314/JOR.2022.048}, pages = {1 -- 24}, year = {2023}, abstract = {We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio's components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio's components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2023, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects}, series = {Statistics : A Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics}, volume = {57}, journal = {Statistics : A Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {London}, isbn = {0323-3944}, issn = {1029-4910}, doi = {10.1080/02331888.2023.2193748}, pages = {14 Seiten}, year = {2023}, abstract = {We consider Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram{\´e}r-von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.}, language = {en} } @article{BaringhausGaigall2022, author = {Baringhaus, Ludwig and Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {A goodness-of-fit test for the compound Poisson exponential model}, series = {Journal of Multivariate Analysis}, volume = {195}, journal = {Journal of Multivariate Analysis}, number = {Article 105154}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0047-259X}, doi = {10.1016/j.jmva.2022.105154}, year = {2022}, abstract = {On the basis of bivariate data, assumed to be observations of independent copies of a random vector (S,N), we consider testing the hypothesis that the distribution of (S,N) belongs to the parametric class of distributions that arise with the compound Poisson exponential model. Typically, this model is used in stochastic hydrology, with N as the number of raindays, and S as total rainfall amount during a certain time period, or in actuarial science, with N as the number of losses, and S as total loss expenditure during a certain time period. The compound Poisson exponential model is characterized in the way that a specific transform associated with the distribution of (S,N) satisfies a certain differential equation. Mimicking the function part of this equation by substituting the empirical counterparts of the transform we obtain an expression the weighted integral of the square of which is used as test statistic. We deal with two variants of the latter, one of which being invariant under scale transformations of the S-part by fixed positive constants. Critical values are obtained by using a parametric bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic behavior of the tests is discussed. A simulation study demonstrates the performance of the tests in the finite sample case. The procedure is applied to rainfall data and to an actuarial dataset. A multivariate extension is also discussed.}, language = {en} } @article{DitzhausGaigall2022, author = {Ditzhaus, Marc and Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Testing marginal homogeneity in Hilbert spaces with applications to stock market returns}, series = {Test}, volume = {2022}, journal = {Test}, number = {31}, publisher = {Springer}, issn = {1863-8260}, doi = {10.1007/s11749-022-00802-5}, pages = {749 -- 770}, year = {2022}, abstract = {This paper considers a paired data framework and discusses the question of marginal homogeneity of bivariate high-dimensional or functional data. The related testing problem can be endowed into a more general setting for paired random variables taking values in a general Hilbert space. To address this problem, a Cram{\´e}r-von-Mises type test statistic is applied and a bootstrap procedure is suggested to obtain critical values and finally a consistent test. The desired properties of a bootstrap test can be derived that are asymptotic exactness under the null hypothesis and consistency under alternatives. Simulations show the quality of the test in the finite sample case. A possible application is the comparison of two possibly dependent stock market returns based on functional data. The approach is demonstrated based on historical data for different stock market indices.}, language = {en} } @article{GaigallGerstenbergTrinh2022, author = {Gaigall, Daniel and Gerstenberg, Julian and Trinh, Thi Thu Ha}, title = {Empirical process of concomitants for partly categorial data and applications in statistics}, series = {Bernoulli}, volume = {28}, journal = {Bernoulli}, number = {2}, publisher = {International Statistical Institute}, address = {Den Haag, NL}, issn = {1573-9759}, doi = {10.3150/21-BEJ1367}, pages = {803 -- 829}, year = {2022}, abstract = {On the basis of independent and identically distributed bivariate random vectors, where the components are categorial and continuous variables, respectively, the related concomitants, also called induced order statistic, are considered. The main theoretical result is a functional central limit theorem for the empirical process of the concomitants in a triangular array setting. A natural application is hypothesis testing. An independence test and a two-sample test are investigated in detail. The fairly general setting enables limit results under local alternatives and bootstrap samples. For the comparison with existing tests from the literature simulation studies are conducted. The empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2021, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Test for Changes in the Modeled Solvency Capital Requirement of an Internal Risk Model}, series = {ASTIN Bulletin}, volume = {51}, journal = {ASTIN Bulletin}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1783-1350}, doi = {10.1017/asb.2021.20}, pages = {813 -- 837}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In the context of the Solvency II directive, the operation of an internal risk model is a possible way for risk assessment and for the determination of the solvency capital requirement of an insurance company in the European Union. A Monte Carlo procedure is customary to generate a model output. To be compliant with the directive, validation of the internal risk model is conducted on the basis of the model output. For this purpose, we suggest a new test for checking whether there is a significant change in the modeled solvency capital requirement. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are investigated and a bootstrap approximation is justified. A simulation study investigates the performance of the test in the finite sample case and confirms the theoretical results. The internal risk model and the application of the test is illustrated in a simplified example. The method has more general usage for inference of a broad class of law-invariant and coherent risk measures on the basis of a paired sample.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2020, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Hoeffding-Blum-Kiefer-Rosenblatt independence test statistic on partly not identically distributed data}, series = {Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods}, volume = {51}, journal = {Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods}, number = {12}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {London}, issn = {1532-415X}, doi = {10.1080/03610926.2020.1805767}, pages = {4006 -- 4028}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The established Hoeffding-Blum-Kiefer-Rosenblatt independence test statistic is investigated for partly not identically distributed data. Surprisingly, it turns out that the statistic has the well-known distribution-free limiting null distribution of the classical criterion under standard regularity conditions. An application is testing goodness-of-fit for the regression function in a non parametric random effects meta-regression model, where the consistency is obtained as well. Simulations investigate size and power of the approach for small and moderate sample sizes. A real data example based on clinical trials illustrates how the test can be used in applications.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2020, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Testing marginal homogeneity of a continuous bivariate distribution with possibly incomplete paired data}, series = {Metrika}, volume = {2020}, journal = {Metrika}, number = {83}, publisher = {Springer}, issn = {1435-926X}, doi = {10.1007/s00184-019-00742-5}, pages = {437 -- 465}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We discuss the testing problem of homogeneity of the marginal distributions of a continuous bivariate distribution based on a paired sample with possibly missing components (missing completely at random). Applying the well-known two-sample Cr{\´a}mer-von-Mises distance to the remaining data, we determine the limiting null distribution of our test statistic in this situation. It is seen that a new resampling approach is appropriate for the approximation of the unknown null distribution. We prove that the resulting test asymptotically reaches the significance level and is consistent. Properties of the test under local alternatives are pointed out as well. Simulations investigate the quality of the approximation and the power of the new approach in the finite sample case. As an illustration we apply the test to real data sets.}, language = {en} } @article{Gaigall2020, author = {Gaigall, Daniel}, title = {Rothman-Woodroofe symmetry test statistic revisited}, series = {Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis}, volume = {2020}, journal = {Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis}, number = {142}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0167-9473}, doi = {10.1016/j.csda.2019.106837}, pages = {Artikel 106837}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Rothman-Woodroofe symmetry test statistic is revisited on the basis of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. The distribution-freeness if the underlying distributions are all symmetric and continuous is obtained. The results are applied for testing symmetry in a meta-analysis random effects model. The consistency of the procedure is discussed in this situation as well. A comparison with an alternative proposal from the literature is conducted via simulations. Real data are analyzed to demonstrate how the new approach works in practice.}, language = {en} }