@article{HeierliPurvesFelberetal.2004, author = {Heierli, Joachim and Purves, Ross S. and Felber, Andreas and Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting}, series = {Annals of Glaciology}, volume = {38}, journal = {Annals of Glaciology}, number = {1}, isbn = {1727-5644}, pages = {84 -- 88}, year = {2004}, abstract = {This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.}, language = {en} } @misc{Kowalski2004, author = {Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Dynamics of Granular Material Avalanches and Numerical Approximations of Savage-Hutter Models}, year = {2004}, language = {de} } @inproceedings{Kowalski2006, author = {Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Numerical Debris Flow Simulation}, series = {Schweizer Numerik Kolloquium : Book of Abstracts 12. April 2006}, booktitle = {Schweizer Numerik Kolloquium : Book of Abstracts 12. April 2006}, pages = {1}, year = {2006}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KowalskiMcArdellBartelt2006, author = {Kowalski, Julia and McArdell, B. W. and Bartelt, Perry}, title = {A comparison of two approaches to modeling multiphase gravity currents}, series = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, volume = {8}, booktitle = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, year = {2006}, language = {en} } @article{McArdellBarteltKowalski2007, author = {McArdell, Brian W. and Bartelt, Perry and Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Field observations of basal forces and fluid pore pressure in a debris flow}, series = {Geophysical Research Letters (GRL)}, volume = {34}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters (GRL)}, number = {7}, isbn = {0094-8276}, year = {2007}, abstract = {Using results from an 8 m2 instrumented force plate we describe field measurements of normal and shear stresses, and fluid pore pressure for a debris flow. The flow depth increased from 0.1 to 1 m within the first 12 s of flow front arrival, remained relatively constant until 100 s, and then gradually decreased to 0.5 m by 600 s. Normal and shear stresses and pore fluid pressure varied in-phase with the flow depth. Calculated bulk densities are ρb = 2000-2250 kg m-3 for the bulk flow and ρf = 1600-1750 kg m-3 for the fluid phase. The ratio of effective normal stress to shear stress yields a Coulomb basal friction angle of ϕ = 26° at the flow front. We did not find a strong correlation between the degree of agitation in the flow, estimated using the signal from a geophone on the force plate, and an assumed dynamic pore fluid pressure. Our data support the idea that excess pore-fluid pressures are long lived in debris flows and therefore contribute to their unusual mobility.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KowalskiBarteltMcElwaine2007, author = {Kowalski, Julia and Bartelt, Perry and McElwaine, J.}, title = {Two-phase debris flow modeling}, series = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, booktitle = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, year = {2007}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{ChristenBarteltKowalskietal.2008, author = {Christen, Marc and Bartelt, Perry and Kowalski, Julia and Stoffel, Lukus}, title = {Calculation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain with the numerical simulation programm RAMMS}, series = {Proceedings ISSW 2008 ; International Snow Science Workshop. Whistler 2008}, booktitle = {Proceedings ISSW 2008 ; International Snow Science Workshop. Whistler 2008}, pages = {709 -- 716}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Numerical models have become an essential part of snow avalanche engineering. Recent advances in understanding the rheology of flowing snow and the mechanics of entrainment and deposition have made numerical models more reliable. Coupled with field observations and historical records, they are especially helpful in understanding avalanche flow in complex terrain. However, the application of numerical models poses several new challenges to avalanche engineers. A detailed understanding of the avalanche phenomena is required to specify initial conditions (release zone dimensions and snowcover entrainment rates) as well as the friction parameters, which are no longer based on empirical back-calculations, rather terrain roughness, vegetation and snow properties. In this paper we discuss these problems by presenting the computer model RAMMS, which was specially designed by the SLF as a practical tool for avalanche engineers. RAMMS solves the depth-averaged equations governing avalanche flow with first and second-order numerical solution schemes. A tremendous effort has been invested in the implementation of advanced input and output features. Simulation results are therefore clearly and easily visualized to simplify their interpretation. More importantly, RAMMS has been applied to a series of well-documented avalanches to gauge model performance. In this paper we present the governing differential equations, highlight some of the input and output features of RAMMS and then discuss the simulation of the Gatschiefer avalanche that occurred in April 2008, near Klosters/Monbiel, Switzerland.}, language = {en} } @article{Kowalski2008, author = {Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Mathematische Murgangmodellierung}, series = {Newsletter Naturgefahren}, volume = {2008}, journal = {Newsletter Naturgefahren}, number = {2}, organization = {Eidgen{\"o}ssisches Institut f{\"u}r Schnee-und Lawinenforschung SLF}, pages = {4 -- 5}, year = {2008}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Kowalski2008, author = {Kowalski, Julia}, title = {Two-phase Modeling of Debris Flows}, publisher = {Mensch und Buch}, address = {Berlin}, isbn = {978-3-86664-524-0}, pages = {148}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{KowalskiMcElwaine2008, author = {Kowalski, Julia and McElwaine, J.}, title = {Two-phase debris flow modeling}, series = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, booktitle = {Geophysical Research Abstracts}, year = {2008}, language = {en} }