TY - JOUR A1 - Christen, Marc A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Back calculation of the In den Arelen avalanche with RAMMS: Interpretation of model results JF - Annals of Glaciology N2 - Two- and three-dimensional avalanche dynamics models are being increasingly used in hazard-mitigation studies. These models can provide improved and more accurate results for hazard mapping than the simple one-dimensional models presently used in practice. However, two- and three-dimensional models generate an extensive amount of output data, making the interpretation of simulation results more difficult. To perform a simulation in three-dimensional terrain, numerical models require a digital elevation model, specification of avalanche release areas (spatial extent and volume), selection of solution methods, finding an adequate calculation resolution and, finally, the choice of friction parameters. In this paper, the importance and difficulty of correctly setting up and analysing the results of a numerical avalanche dynamics simulation is discussed. We apply the two-dimensional simulation program RAMMS to the 1968 extreme avalanche event In den Arelen. We show the effect of model input variations on simulation results and the dangers and complexities in their interpretation. KW - avalanche Y1 - 2010 SN - 1727-5644 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756410791386553 VL - 51 IS - 54 SP - 161 EP - 168 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fischer, Jan-Thomas A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - Pudasaini, Shiva P. A1 - Miller, S. A. T1 - Dynamic Avalanche Modeling in Natural Terrain JF - International Snow Science Workshop, Davos 2009, Proceedings ; Proc. ISSW 2009 N2 - The powerful avalanche simulation toolbox RAMMS (Rapid Mass Movements) is based on a depth-averaged hydrodynamic system of equations with a Voellmy-Salm friction relation. The two empirical friction parameters μ and � correspond to a dry Coulomb friction and a viscous resistance, respectively. Although μ and � lack a proper physical explanation, 60 years of acquired avalanche data in the Swiss Alps made a systematic calibration possible. RAMMS can therefore successfully model avalanche flow depth, velocities, impact pressure and run out distances. Pudasaini and Hutter (2003) have proposed extended, rigorously derived model equations that account for local curvature and twist. A coordinate transformation into a reference system, applied to the actual mountain topography of the natural avalanche path, is performed. The local curvature and the twist of the avalanche path induce an additional term in the overburden pressure. This leads to a modification of the Coulomb friction, the free-surface pressure gradient, the pressure induced by the channel, and the gravity components along and normal to the curved and twisted reference surface. This eventually guides the flow dynamics and deposits of avalanches. In the present study, we investigate the influence of curvature on avalanche flow in real mountain terrain. Simulations of real avalanche paths are performed and compared for the different models approaches. An algorithm to calculate curvature in real terrain is introduced in RAMMS. This leads to a curvature dependent friction relation in an extended version of the Voellmy-Salm model equations. Our analysis provides yet another step in interpreting the physical meaning and significance of the friction parameters used in the RAMMS computational environment. KW - snow KW - avalanche Y1 - 2009 SP - 448 EP - 452 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Christen, Marc A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - Stoffel, Lukus T1 - Calculation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain with the numerical simulation programm RAMMS T2 - Proceedings ISSW 2008 ; International Snow Science Workshop. Whistler 2008 N2 - Numerical models have become an essential part of snow avalanche engineering. Recent advances in understanding the rheology of flowing snow and the mechanics of entrainment and deposition have made numerical models more reliable. Coupled with field observations and historical records, they are especially helpful in understanding avalanche flow in complex terrain. However, the application of numerical models poses several new challenges to avalanche engineers. A detailed understanding of the avalanche phenomena is required to specify initial conditions (release zone dimensions and snowcover entrainment rates) as well as the friction parameters, which are no longer based on empirical back-calculations, rather terrain roughness, vegetation and snow properties. In this paper we discuss these problems by presenting the computer model RAMMS, which was specially designed by the SLF as a practical tool for avalanche engineers. RAMMS solves the depth-averaged equations governing avalanche flow with first and second-order numerical solution schemes. A tremendous effort has been invested in the implementation of advanced input and output features. Simulation results are therefore clearly and easily visualized to simplify their interpretation. More importantly, RAMMS has been applied to a series of well-documented avalanches to gauge model performance. In this paper we present the governing differential equations, highlight some of the input and output features of RAMMS and then discuss the simulation of the Gatschiefer avalanche that occurred in April 2008, near Klosters/Monbiel, Switzerland. KW - snow KW - avalanche Y1 - 2008 SP - 709 EP - 716 ER - TY - THES A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Two-phase Modeling of Debris Flows Y1 - 2008 SN - 978-3-86664-524-0 N1 - Diss., Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETH Zürich, Nr. 17827, 2008 PB - Mensch und Buch CY - Berlin ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - McElwaine, J. T1 - Two-phase debris flow modeling T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2008 N1 - A-01048 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - McArdell, Brian W. A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Field observations of basal forces and fluid pore pressure in a debris flow JF - Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) N2 - Using results from an 8 m2 instrumented force plate we describe field measurements of normal and shear stresses, and fluid pore pressure for a debris flow. The flow depth increased from 0.1 to 1 m within the first 12 s of flow front arrival, remained relatively constant until 100 s, and then gradually decreased to 0.5 m by 600 s. Normal and shear stresses and pore fluid pressure varied in-phase with the flow depth. Calculated bulk densities are ρb = 2000–2250 kg m−3 for the bulk flow and ρf = 1600–1750 kg m−3 for the fluid phase. The ratio of effective normal stress to shear stress yields a Coulomb basal friction angle of ϕ = 26° at the flow front. We did not find a strong correlation between the degree of agitation in the flow, estimated using the signal from a geophone on the force plate, and an assumed dynamic pore fluid pressure. Our data support the idea that excess pore-fluid pressures are long lived in debris flows and therefore contribute to their unusual mobility. KW - debris flow Y1 - 2007 SN - 0094-8276 VL - 34 IS - 7 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - McElwaine, J. T1 - Two-phase debris flow modeling T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2007 N1 - A-08119 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Numerical Debris Flow Simulation T2 - Schweizer Numerik Kolloquium : Book of Abstracts 12. April 2006 Y1 - 2006 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - McArdell, B. W. A1 - Bartelt, Perry T1 - A comparison of two approaches to modeling multiphase gravity currents T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2006 N1 - A-08738 VL - 8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Heierli, Joachim A1 - Purves, Ross S. A1 - Felber, Andreas A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting JF - Annals of Glaciology N2 - This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented. KW - avalanche Y1 - 2004 SN - 1727-5644 VL - 38 IS - 1 SP - 84 EP - 88 ER -