TY  - CHAP
A1  - Schwager, Christian
A1  - Angele, Florian
A1  - Nouri, Bijan
A1  - Schwarzbözl, Peter
A1  - Teixeira Boura, Cristiano José
A1  - Herrmann, Ulf
T1  - Impact of DNI forecast quality on performance prediction for a commercial scale solar tower: Application of nowcasting DNI maps to dynamic solar tower simulation
T2  - SolarPACES conference proceedings
N2  - Concerning current efforts to improve operational efficiency and to lower overall costs of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with prediction-based algorithms, this study investigates the quality and uncertainty of nowcasting data regarding the implications for process predictions. DNI (direct normal irradiation) maps from an all-sky imager-based nowcasting system are applied to a dynamic prediction model coupled with ray tracing. The results underline the need for high-resolution DNI maps in order to predict net yield and receiver outlet temperature realistically. Furthermore, based on a statistical uncertainty analysis, a correlation is developed, which allows for predicting the uncertainty of the net power prediction based on the corresponding DNI forecast uncertainty. However, the study reveals significant prediction errors and the demand for further improvement in the accuracy at which local shadings are forecasted.
KW  - Process prediction
KW  - DNI forecasting
KW  - Nowcasting
KW  - Uncertainty analysis
KW  - Molten salt receiver system,
Y1  - 2024
U6  - http://dx.doi.org/10.52825/solarpaces.v1i.675
SN  - 2751-9899 (online)
N1  - 28th International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems, 27-30 September, Albuquerque, NM, USA
IS  - Vol. 1
PB  - TIB Open Publishing
CY  - Hannover
ER  -