TY - CHAP A1 - Schulte, Maximilian A1 - Eggert, Mathias T1 - Predicting hourly bitcoin prices based on long short-term memory neural networks T2 - Proceedings of the International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik (WI) 2021 N2 - Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and is considered a high-risk asset class whose price changes are difficult to predict. Current research focusses on daily price movements with a limited number of predictors. The paper at hand aims at identifying measurable indicators for Bitcoin price movement s and the development of a suitable forecasting model for hourly changes. The paper provides three research contributions. First, a set of significant indicators for predicting the Bitcoin price is identified. Second, the results of a trained Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) neural network that predicts price changes on an hourly basis is presented and compared with other algorithms. Third, the results foster discussions of the applicability of neural nets for stock price predictions. In total, 47 input features for a period of over 10 months could be retrieved to train a neural net that predicts the Bitcoin price movements with an error rate of 3.52 %. Y1 - 2021 N1 - 16th International Conference on Wirtschaftsinformatik, March 2021, Essen, Germany ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Schmidt, Thomas A1 - Kasch, Susanne A1 - Eichler, Fabian A1 - Thurn, Laura T1 - Process strategies on laser-based melting of glass powder T2 - Lasers in Manufacturing Conference 2021 N2 - This paper presents the laser-based powder bed fusion (L-PBF) using various glass powders (borosilicate and quartz glass). Compared to metals, these require adapted process strategies. First, the glass powders were characterized with regard to their material properties and their processability in the powder bed. This was followed by investigations of the melting behavior of the glass powders with different laser wavelengths (10.6 µm, 1070 nm). In particular, the experimental setup of a CO2 laser was adapted for the processing of glass powder. An experimental setup with integrated coaxial temperature measurement/control and an inductively heatable build platform was created. This allowed the L-PBF process to be carried out at the transformation temperature of the glasses. Furthermore, the component’s material quality was analyzed on three-dimensional test specimen with regard to porosity, roughness, density and geometrical accuracy in order to evaluate the developed L-PBF parameters and to open up possible applications. KW - 3D-printing KW - glass KW - additive manufactureing KW - laser based powder fusion Y1 - 2021 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kroniger, Daniel A1 - Horikawa, Atsushi A1 - Funke, Harald A1 - Pfäffle, Franziska A1 - Kishimoto, Tsuyoshi A1 - Okada, Koichi T1 - Experimental and numerical investigation on the effect of pressure on micromix hydrogen combustion T2 - ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition // Volume 3A: Combustion, Fuels, and Emissions N2 - The micromix (MMX) combustion concept is a DLN gas turbine combustion technology designed for high hydrogen content fuels. Multiple non-premixed miniaturized flames based on jet in cross-flow (JICF) are inherently safe against flashback and ensure a stable operation in various operative conditions. The objective of this paper is to investigate the influence of pressure on the micromix flame with focus on the flame initiation point and the NOx emissions. A numerical model based on a steady RANS approach and the Complex Chemistry model with relevant reactions of the GRI 3.0 mechanism is used to predict the reactive flow and NOx emissions at various pressure conditions. Regarding the turbulence-chemical interaction, the Laminar Flame Concept (LFC) and the Eddy Dissipation Concept (EDC) are compared. The numerical results are validated against experimental results that have been acquired at a high pressure test facility for industrial can-type gas turbine combustors with regard to flame initiation and NOx emissions. The numerical approach is adequate to predict the flame initiation point and NOx emission trends. Interestingly, the flame shifts its initiation point during the pressure increase in upstream direction, whereby the flame attachment shifts from anchoring behind a downstream located bluff body towards anchoring directly at the hydrogen jet. The LFC predicts this change and the NOx emissions more accurately than the EDC. The resulting NOx correlation regarding the pressure is similar to a non-premixed type combustion configuration. KW - NOx emissions KW - hydrogen KW - combustor KW - gas turbine Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/GT2021-58926 N1 - ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. June 7–11, 2021. Virtual, Online. Paper No: GT2021-58926, V03AT04A025 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Handschuh, Nils A1 - Stollenwerk, Dominik A1 - Borchert, Jörg T1 - Operation of thermal storage power plants under high renewable grid penetration T2 - NEIS 2021: Conference on Sustainable Energy Supply and Energy Storage Systems N2 - The planned coal phase-out in Germany by 2038 will lead to the dismantling of power plants with a total capacity of approx. 30 GW. A possible further use of these assets is the conversion of the power plants to thermal storage power plants; the use of these power plants on the day-ahead market is considerably limited by their technical parameters. In this paper, the influence of the technical boundary conditions on the operating times of these storage facilities is presented. For this purpose, the storage power plants were described as an MILP problem and two price curves, one from 2015 with a relatively low renewable penetration (33 %) and one from 2020 with a high renewable energy penetration (51 %) are compared. The operating times were examined as a function of the technical parameters and the critical influencing factors were investigated. The thermal storage power plant operation duration and the energy shifted with the price curve of 2020 increases by more than 25 % compared to 2015. KW - storage optimisation KW - storage dispatch KW - thermal storage Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-3-8007-5651-3 N1 - NEIS 2021: Conference on Sustainable Energy Supply and Energy Storage Systems. 13-14 September 2021. Hamburg, Germany SP - 261 EP - 265 PB - VDE Verlag CY - Berlin ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Schoutetens, Frederic A1 - Dachwald, Bernd A1 - Heiligers, Jeannette T1 - Optimisation of photon-sail trajectories in the alpha-centauri system using evolutionary neurocontrol T2 - 8th ICATT (International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques) 23 - 25 June 2021, Virtual N2 - With the increased interest for interstellar exploration after the discovery of exoplanets and the proposal by Breakthrough Starshot, this paper investigates the optimisation of photon-sail trajectories in Alpha Centauri. The prime objective is to find the optimal steering strategy for a photonic sail to get captured around one of the stars after a minimum-time transfer from Earth. By extending the idea of the Breakthrough Starshot project with a deceleration phase upon arrival, the mission’s scientific yield will be increased. As a secondary objective, transfer trajectories between the stars and orbit-raising manoeuvres to explore the habitable zones of the stars are investigated. All trajectories are optimised for minimum time of flight using the trajectory optimisation software InTrance. Depending on the sail technology, interstellar travel times of 77.6-18,790 years can be achieved, which presents an average improvement of 30% with respect to previous work. Still, significant technological development is required to reach and be captured in the Alpha-Centauri system in less than a century. Therefore, a fly-through mission arguably remains the only option for a first exploratory mission to Alpha Centauri, but the enticing results obtained in this work provide perspective for future long-residence missions to our closest neighbouring star system. Y1 - 2021 N1 - 8th ICATT (International Conference on Astrodynamics Tools and Techniques) 23 - 25 June 2021, Virtual SP - 1 EP - 15 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kroniger, Daniel A1 - Horikawa, Atsushi A1 - Funke, Harald A1 - Pfäffle, Franziska T1 - Numerical investigation of micromix hydrogen flames at different combustor pressure levels T2 - Proceedings of the International Conference on Power Engineering 2021 N2 - This study investigates the influence of pressure on the temperature distribution of the micromix (MMX) hydrogen flame and the NOx emissions. A steady computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis is performed by simulating a reactive flow with a detailed chemical reaction model. The numerical analysis is validated based on experimental investigations. A quantitative correlation is parametrized based on the numerical results. We find, that the flame initiation point shifts with increasing pressure from anchoring behind a downstream located bluff body towards anchoring upstream at the hydrogen jet. The numerical NOx emissions trend regarding to a variation of pressure is in good agreement with the experimental results. The pressure has an impact on both, the residence time within the maximum temperature region and on the peak temperature itself. In conclusion, the numerical model proved to be adequate for future prototype design exploration studies targeting on improving the operating range. KW - Gas turbine combustion KW - Hydrogen KW - NOx emissions KW - Flame temperature KW - Flame residence time Y1 - 2021 N1 - Proceedings of the International Conference on Power Engineering 2021 (ICOPE-2021). October 17 - 21, 2021. Kobe, Japan (Online) ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Horikawa, Atsushi A1 - Okada, Kunio A1 - Yamaguchi, Masato A1 - Aoki, Shigeki A1 - Wirsum, Manfred A1 - Funke, Harald A1 - Kusterer, Karsten T1 - Combustor development and engine demonstration of micro-mix hydrogen combustion applied to M1A-17 gas turbine T2 - ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition // Volume 3B: Combustion, Fuels, and Emissions N2 - Kawasaki Heavy Industries, LTD. (KHI) has research and development projects for a future hydrogen society. These projects comprise the complete hydrogen cycle, including the production of hydrogen gas, the refinement and liquefaction for transportation and storage, and finally the utilization in a gas turbine for electricity and heat supply. Within the development of the hydrogen gas turbine, the key technology is stable and low NOx hydrogen combustion, namely the Dry Low NOx (DLN) hydrogen combustion. KHI, Aachen University of Applied Science, and B&B-AGEMA have investigated the possibility of low NOx micro-mix hydrogen combustion and its application to an industrial gas turbine combustor. From 2014 to 2018, KHI developed a DLN hydrogen combustor for a 2MW class industrial gas turbine with the micro-mix technology. Thereby, the ignition performance, the flame stability for equivalent rotational speed, and higher load conditions were investigated. NOx emission values were kept about half of the Air Pollution Control Law in Japan: 84ppm (O2-15%). Hereby, the elementary combustor development was completed. From May 2020, KHI started the engine demonstration operation by using an M1A-17 gas turbine with a co-generation system located in the hydrogen-fueled power generation plant in Kobe City, Japan. During the first engine demonstration tests, adjustments of engine starting and load control with fuel staging were investigated. On 21st May, the electrical power output reached 1,635 kW, which corresponds to 100% load (ambient temperature 20 °C), and thereby NOx emissions of 65 ppm (O2-15, 60 RH%) were verified. Here, for the first time, a DLN hydrogen-fueled gas turbine successfully generated power and heat. KW - industrial gas turbine KW - combustor development KW - engine demonstration KW - fuels KW - hydrogen Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/GT2021-59666 N1 - ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. June 7–11, 2021. Virtual, Online. Paper No: GT2021-59666, V03BT04A014 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Butenweg, Christoph A1 - Bursi, Oreste S. A1 - Nardin, Chiara A1 - Lanese, Igor A1 - Pavese, Alberto A1 - Marinković, Marko A1 - Paolacci, Fabrizio A1 - Quinci, Gianluca T1 - Experimental investigation on the seismic performance of a multi-component system for major-hazard industrial facilities T2 - Pressure Vessels & Piping Virtual Conference July 13-15, 2021 N2 - Past earthquakes demonstrated the high vulnerability of industrial facilities equipped with complex process technologies leading to serious damage of the process equipment and multiple and simultaneous release of hazardous substances in industrial facilities. Nevertheless, the design of industrial plants is inadequately described in recent codes and guidelines, as they do not consider the dynamic interaction between the structure and the installations and thus the effect of seismic response of the installations on the response of the structure and vice versa. The current code-based approach for the seismic design of industrial facilities is considered not enough for ensure proper safety conditions against exceptional event entailing loss of content and related consequences. Accordingly, SPIF project (Seismic Performance of Multi-Component Systems in Special Risk Industrial Facilities) was proposed within the framework of the European H2020 - SERA funding scheme (Seismology and Earthquake Engineering Research Infrastructure Alliance for Europe). The objective of the SPIF project is the investigation of the seismic behaviour of a representative industrial structure equipped with complex process technology by means of shaking table tests. The test structure is a three-story moment resisting steel frame with vertical and horizontal vessels and cabinets, arranged on the three levels and connected by pipes. The dynamic behaviour of the test structure and of its relative several installations is investigated. Furthermore, both process components and primary structure interactions are considered and analyzed. Several PGA-scaled artificial ground motions are applied to study the seismic response at different levels. After each test, dynamic identification measurements are carried out to characterize the system condition. The contribution presents the experimental setup of the investigated structure and installations, selected measurement data and describes the obtained damage. Furthermore, important findings for the definition of performance limits, the effectiveness of floor response spectra in industrial facilities will be presented and discussed. KW - industrial facilities KW - piping KW - installations KW - seismic loading KW - earthquakes Y1 - 2021 SN - 9780791885352 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/PVP2021-61696 PB - American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) CY - New York ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Balaskas, Georgios A1 - Hoffmeister, Benno A1 - Butenweg, Christoph A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Bauer, Anna ED - Papadrakakis, Manolis ED - Fragiadakis, Michalis T1 - Earthquake early warning and response system based on intelligent seismic and monitoring sensors embedded in a communication platform and coupled with BIM models T2 - 8th ECCOMAS Thematic Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering N2 - This paper describes the concept of an innovative, interdisciplinary, user-oriented earthquake warning and rapid response system coupled with a structural health monitoring system (SHM), capable to detect structural damages in real time. The novel system is based on interconnected decentralized seismic and structural health monitoring sensors. It is developed and will be exemplarily applied on critical infrastructures in Lower Rhine Region, in particular on a road bridge and within a chemical industrial facility. A communication network is responsible to exchange information between sensors and forward warnings and status reports about infrastructures’health condition to the concerned recipients (e.g., facility operators, local authorities). Safety measures such as emergency shutdowns are activated to mitigate structural damages and damage propagation. Local monitoring systems of the infrastructures are integrated in BIM models. The visualization of sensor data and the graphic representation of the detected damages provide spatial content to sensors data and serve as a useful and effective tool for the decision-making processes after an earthquake in the region under consideration. KW - early warning and response system KW - interconnected sensor systems KW - seismic structural damage detection via SHM KW - integration SHM in BIM Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-618-85072-5-8 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.7712/120121.8539.18855 SN - 2623-3347 N1 - COMPDYN 2021 28-30 June 2021, Streamed from Athens, Greece SP - 987 EP - 998 PB - National Technical University of Athens CY - Athen ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Milkova, Kristina A1 - Butenweg, Christoph A1 - Dumova-Jovanoska, Elena T1 - Region-sensitive comprehensive procedure for determination of seismic fragility curves T2 - 1st Croatian Conference on Earthquake Engineering 1CroCEE 22-24 March 2021 Zagreb, Croatia N2 - Seismic vulnerability estimation of existing structures is unquestionably interesting topic of high priority, particularly after earthquake events. Having in mind the vast number of old masonry buildings in North Macedonia serving as public institutions, it is evident that the structural assessment of these buildings is an issue of great importance. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology for the development of seismic fragility curves of existing masonry buildings is presented. A scenario – based method that incorporates the knowledge of the tectonic style of the considered region, the active fault characterization, the earth crust model and the historical seismicity (determined via the Neo Deterministic approach) is used for calculation of the necessary response spectra. The capacity of the investigated masonry buildings has been determined by using nonlinear static analysis. MINEA software (SDA Engineering) is used for verification of the structural safety of the structures Performance point, obtained from the intersection of the capacity of the building and the spectra used, is selected as a response parameter. The thresholds of the spectral displacement are obtained by splitting the capacity curve into five parts, utilizing empirical formulas which are represented as a function of yield displacement and ultimate displacement. As a result, four levels of damage limit states are determined. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the process of fragility curves determination is noted as a final step in the proposed procedure. As a result, region specific series of vulnerability curves for structures are defined. KW - seismic risk KW - seismic vulnerability KW - fragility curves KW - masonry structures Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://dx.doi.org/10.5592/CO/1CroCEE.2021.158 SP - 121 EP - 128 PB - University of Zagreb CY - Zagreb ER -