TY - JOUR A1 - Heierli, Joachim A1 - Purves, Ross S. A1 - Felber, Andreas A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting JF - Annals of Glaciology N2 - This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented. KW - avalanche Y1 - 2004 SN - 1727-5644 VL - 38 IS - 1 SP - 84 EP - 88 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Dynamics of Granular Material Avalanches and Numerical Approximations of Savage-Hutter Models Y1 - 2004 N1 - Diploma Thesis, University of Augsburg ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Numerical Debris Flow Simulation T2 - Schweizer Numerik Kolloquium : Book of Abstracts 12. April 2006 Y1 - 2006 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - McArdell, B. W. A1 - Bartelt, Perry T1 - A comparison of two approaches to modeling multiphase gravity currents T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2006 N1 - A-08738 VL - 8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - McArdell, Brian W. A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Field observations of basal forces and fluid pore pressure in a debris flow JF - Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) N2 - Using results from an 8 m2 instrumented force plate we describe field measurements of normal and shear stresses, and fluid pore pressure for a debris flow. The flow depth increased from 0.1 to 1 m within the first 12 s of flow front arrival, remained relatively constant until 100 s, and then gradually decreased to 0.5 m by 600 s. Normal and shear stresses and pore fluid pressure varied in-phase with the flow depth. Calculated bulk densities are ρb = 2000–2250 kg m−3 for the bulk flow and ρf = 1600–1750 kg m−3 for the fluid phase. The ratio of effective normal stress to shear stress yields a Coulomb basal friction angle of ϕ = 26° at the flow front. We did not find a strong correlation between the degree of agitation in the flow, estimated using the signal from a geophone on the force plate, and an assumed dynamic pore fluid pressure. Our data support the idea that excess pore-fluid pressures are long lived in debris flows and therefore contribute to their unusual mobility. KW - debris flow Y1 - 2007 SN - 0094-8276 VL - 34 IS - 7 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - McElwaine, J. T1 - Two-phase debris flow modeling T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2007 N1 - A-08119 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Christen, Marc A1 - Bartelt, Perry A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - Stoffel, Lukus T1 - Calculation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain with the numerical simulation programm RAMMS T2 - Proceedings ISSW 2008 ; International Snow Science Workshop. Whistler 2008 N2 - Numerical models have become an essential part of snow avalanche engineering. Recent advances in understanding the rheology of flowing snow and the mechanics of entrainment and deposition have made numerical models more reliable. Coupled with field observations and historical records, they are especially helpful in understanding avalanche flow in complex terrain. However, the application of numerical models poses several new challenges to avalanche engineers. A detailed understanding of the avalanche phenomena is required to specify initial conditions (release zone dimensions and snowcover entrainment rates) as well as the friction parameters, which are no longer based on empirical back-calculations, rather terrain roughness, vegetation and snow properties. In this paper we discuss these problems by presenting the computer model RAMMS, which was specially designed by the SLF as a practical tool for avalanche engineers. RAMMS solves the depth-averaged equations governing avalanche flow with first and second-order numerical solution schemes. A tremendous effort has been invested in the implementation of advanced input and output features. Simulation results are therefore clearly and easily visualized to simplify their interpretation. More importantly, RAMMS has been applied to a series of well-documented avalanches to gauge model performance. In this paper we present the governing differential equations, highlight some of the input and output features of RAMMS and then discuss the simulation of the Gatschiefer avalanche that occurred in April 2008, near Klosters/Monbiel, Switzerland. KW - snow KW - avalanche Y1 - 2008 SP - 709 EP - 716 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Mathematische Murgangmodellierung JF - Newsletter Naturgefahren Y1 - 2008 VL - 2008 IS - 2 SP - 4 EP - 5 ER - TY - THES A1 - Kowalski, Julia T1 - Two-phase Modeling of Debris Flows Y1 - 2008 SN - 978-3-86664-524-0 N1 - Diss., Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETH Zürich, Nr. 17827, 2008 PB - Mensch und Buch CY - Berlin ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kowalski, Julia A1 - McElwaine, J. T1 - Two-phase debris flow modeling T2 - Geophysical Research Abstracts Y1 - 2008 N1 - A-01048 ER -