TY - JOUR A1 - Vogt, C. A1 - Mottaghy, Darius A1 - Wolf, A. A1 - Rath, V. A1 - Pechnig, R. A1 - Clauser, C. T1 - Reducing temperature uncertainties by stochastic geothermal reservoir modelling JF - Geophysical Journal International N2 - Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables. Y1 - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04498.x SN - 1365-246X VL - 181 IS - 1 SP - 321 EP - 333 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kirsch, Ansgar T1 - Numerical investigation of the face stability of shallow tunnels in sand T2 - Numerical methods in geotechnical engineering : (NUMGE 2010) : proceedings of the seventh European Conference on Numerical Methods in Geotechnical Engineering, Trondheim, Norway, 2 - 4 June 2010 / ed. by Thomas Benz ... Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-0-415-59239-0 SP - 779 EP - 784 PB - Taylor and Francis CY - London ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kirsch, Ansgar A1 - Marcher, Thomas T1 - Numerical prediction of time-dependent rock swelling based on an example of a major tunnel project in Ontario/Canada T2 - Numerical methods in geotechnical engineering : (NUMGE 2010) : proceedings of the seventh European Conference on Numerical Methods in Geotechnical Engineering, Trondheim, Norway, 2 - 4 June 2010 / ed. by Thomas Benz ... Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-0-415-59239-0 SP - 297 EP - 302 PB - Taylor and Francis CY - London ER - TY - PAT A1 - O'Connell, Timothy A1 - Siegert, Petra A1 - Maurer, Karl-Heinz A1 - Schiedel, Marc-Steffen A1 - Vockenroth, Inga Kerstin T1 - Method for improving the cleaning action of a detergent or cleaning agent [Internationale Patentanmeldung] T1 - Verfahren zur Verbesserung der Reinigungsleistung eines Wasch- oder Reinigungsmittels Y1 - 2010 SP - 1 EP - 15 PB - WIPO CY - Genf ER - TY - GEN A1 - Alt, Helmut T1 - Optionen einer bezahlbaren Energieversorgung „Vision versus Realismus" : Beitrag für KTG Kongress: vom 4. bis 6. Mai 2010, Berlin Y1 - 2010 SP - 1 EP - 10 ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Thomas, Axel T1 - Rhetorische Knallfrösche : Zitatensammlung für Politik und Wirtschaft Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-3-00-033037-7 PB - Neck + Heyn CY - Aachen ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Schnell, Michael A1 - Franzen, Nico A1 - Gligorevic, Snjezana T1 - L-DACS1 laboratory demonstrator development and compatibility measurement set-up T2 - IEEE/AIAA 29th Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC) : 3 - 7 Oct. 2010, Salt Lake City, Utah Y1 - 2010 SN - 9781424466160 ; 9781424466184 SP - 3E3-1 EP - 3E3-11 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Walter, Michael A1 - Gligorevic, Snjezana A1 - Detert, Thorben A1 - Schnell, Michael T1 - UHF/VHF air-to-air propagation measurements T2 - Proceedings of the Fourth European Conference on Antennas and Propagation (EuCAP) : 12 - 16 April 2010, Barcelona, Spain Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-1-4244-6431-9 ; 978-84-7653-472-4 SP - 1 EP - 5 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gligorevic, Snjezana A1 - Pulini, Paola T1 - Simplified airport surface channel model based on the WSSUS assumption T2 - 2010 Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS 2010) : Herndon, Virginia, USA, 11 - 13 May 2010 Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-1-4244-7457-8 SN - 2155-4943 SP - F2-1 EP - F2-11 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Pfaff, Raphael A1 - Larkowski, Tomasz A1 - Burnham, Keith J. T1 - An approach to adaptive control in the behavioural framework T2 - UKACC International Conference on Control 2010 (CONTROL 2010) : Coventry, United Kingdom, 7 - 10 September 2010 ; Vol. 2. (IET seminar digest ; 2010/004) Y1 - 2010 SN - 978-1-62748-119-9 SP - 833 EP - 838 PB - Curran CY - Red Hook, NY ER -