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Verification of nearest-neighbours interpretations in avalanche forecasting

  • This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.

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Metadaten
Author:Joachim Heierli, Ross S. Purves, Andreas Felber, Julia KowalskiORCiD
ISBN:1727-5644
Parent Title (English):Annals of Glaciology
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Year of Completion:2004
Date of the Publication (Server):2013/01/21
Tag:avalanche
Volume:38
Issue:1
First Page:84
Last Page:88
Link:http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756404781815095
Zugriffsart:bezahl
Institutes:FH Aachen / Fachbereich Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik