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A procedure for the evaluation of the failure probability of elastic-plastic thin shell structures is presented. The procedure involves a deterministic limit and shakedown analysis for each probabilistic iteration which is based on the kinematical approach and the use the exact Ilyushin yield surface. Based on a direct definition of the limit state function, the non-linear problems may be efficiently solved by using the First and Second Order Reliabiblity Methods (Form/SORM). This direct approach reduces considerably the necessary knowledge of uncertain technological input data, computing costs and the numerical error. In: Computational plasticity / ed. by Eugenio Onate. Dordrecht: Springer 2007. VII, 265 S. (Computational Methods in Applied Sciences ; 7) (COMPLAS IX. Part 1 . International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE)). ISBN 978-1-402-06576-7 S. 186-189
