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A procedure for the evaluation of the failure probability of elastic-plastic thin shell structures is presented. The procedure involves a deterministic limit and shakedown analysis for each probabilistic iteration which is based on the kinematical approach and the use the exact Ilyushin yield surface. Based on a direct definition of the limit state function, the non-linear problems may be efficiently solved by using the First and Second Order Reliabiblity Methods (Form/SORM). This direct approach reduces considerably the necessary knowledge of uncertain technological input data, computing costs and the numerical error. In: Computational plasticity / ed. by Eugenio Onate. Dordrecht: Springer 2007. VII, 265 S. (Computational Methods in Applied Sciences ; 7) (COMPLAS IX. Part 1 . International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE)). ISBN 978-1-402-06576-7 S. 186-189
Limit loads can be calculated with the finite element method (FEM) for any component, defect geometry, and loading. FEM suggests that published long crack limit formulae for axial defects under-estimate the burst pressure for internal surface defects in thick pipes while limit loads are not conservative for deep cracks and for pressure loaded crack-faces. Very deep cracks have a residual strength, which is modelled by a global collapse load. These observations are combined to derive new analytical local and global collapse loads. The global collapse loads are close to FEM limit analyses for all crack dimensions.
