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Market abstraction of energy markets and policies - application in an agent-based modeling toolbox
(2023)
In light of emerging challenges in energy systems, markets are prone to changing dynamics and market design. Simulation models are commonly used to understand the changing dynamics of future electricity markets. However, existing market models were often created with specific use cases in mind, which limits their flexibility and usability. This can impose challenges for using a single model to compare different market designs. This paper introduces a new method of defining market designs for energy market simulations. The proposed concept makes it easy to incorporate different market designs into electricity market models by using relevant parameters derived from analyzing existing simulation tools, morphological categorization and ontologies. These parameters are then used to derive a market abstraction and integrate it into an agent-based simulation framework, allowing for a unified analysis of diverse market designs. Furthermore, we showcase the usability of integrating new types of long-term contracts and over-the-counter trading. To validate this approach, two case studies are demonstrated: a pay-as-clear market and a pay-as-bid long-term market. These examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.
Lead and nickel, as heavy metals, are still used in industrial processes, and are classified as “environmental health hazards” due to their toxicity and polluting potential. The detection of heavy metals can prevent environmental pollution at toxic levels that are critical to human health. In this sense, the electrolyte–insulator–semiconductor (EIS) field-effect sensor is an attractive sensing platform concerning the fabrication of reusable and robust sensors to detect such substances. This study is aimed to fabricate a sensing unit on an EIS device based on Sn₃O₄ nanobelts embedded in a polyelectrolyte matrix of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) and polyacrylic acid (PAA) using the layer-by-layer (LbL) technique. The EIS-Sn₃O₄ sensor exhibited enhanced electrochemical performance for detecting Pb²⁺ and Ni²⁺ ions, revealing a higher affinity for Pb²⁺ ions, with sensitivities of ca. 25.8 mV/decade and 2.4 mV/decade, respectively. Such results indicate that Sn₃O₄ nanobelts can contemplate a feasible proof-of-concept capacitive field-effect sensor for heavy metal detection, envisaging other future studies focusing on environmental monitoring.
Herein, fibroin, polylactide (PLA), and carbon are investigated for their suitability as biocompatible and biodegradable materials for amperometric biosensors. For this purpose, screen-printed carbon electrodes on the biodegradable substrates fibroin and PLA are modified with a glucose oxidase membrane and then encapsulated with the biocompatible material Ecoflex. The influence of different curing parameters of the carbon electrodes on the resulting biosensor characteristics is studied. The morphology of the electrodes is investigated by scanning electron microscopy, and the biosensor performance is examined by amperometric measurements of glucose (0.5–10 mM) in phosphate buffer solution, pH 7.4, at an applied potential of 1.2 V versus a Ag/AgCl reference electrode. Instead of Ecoflex, fibroin, PLA, and wound adhesive are tested as alternative encapsulation compounds: a series of swelling tests with different fibroin compositions, PLA, and Ecoflex has been performed before characterizing the most promising candidates by chronoamperometry. Therefore, the carbon electrodes are completely covered with the particular encapsulation material. Chronoamperometric measurements with H2O2 concentrations between 0.5 and 10 mM enable studying the leakage current behavior.
Messenger apps like WhatsApp and Telegram are frequently used for everyday communication, but they can also be utilized as a platform for illegal activity. Telegram allows public groups with up to 200.000 participants. Criminals use these public groups for trading illegal commodities and services, which becomes a concern for law enforcement agencies, who manually monitor suspicious activity in these chat rooms. This research demonstrates how natural language processing (NLP) can assist in analyzing these chat rooms, providing an explorative overview of the domain and facilitating purposeful analyses of user behavior. We provide a publicly available corpus of annotated text messages with entities and relations from four self-proclaimed black market chat rooms. Our pipeline approach aggregates the extracted product attributes from user messages to profiles and uses these with their sold products as features for clustering. The extracted structured information is the foundation for further data exploration, such as identifying the top vendors or fine-granular price analyses. Our evaluation shows that pretrained word vectors perform better for unsupervised clustering than state-of-the-art transformer models, while the latter is still superior for sequence labeling.
Subglacial environments on Earth offer important analogs to Ocean World targets in our solar system. These unique microbial ecosystems remain understudied due to the challenges of access through thick glacial ice (tens to hundreds of meters). Additionally, sub-ice collections must be conducted in a clean manner to ensure sample integrity for downstream microbiological and geochemical analyses. We describe the field-based cleaning of a melt probe that was used to collect brine samples from within a glacier conduit at Blood Falls, Antarctica, for geomicrobiological studies. We used a thermoelectric melting probe called the IceMole that was designed to be minimally invasive in that the logistical requirements in support of drilling operations were small and the probe could be cleaned, even in a remote field setting, so as to minimize potential contamination. In our study, the exterior bioburden on the IceMole was reduced to levels measured in most clean rooms, and below that of the ice surrounding our sampling target. Potential microbial contaminants were identified during the cleaning process; however, very few were detected in the final englacial sample collected with the IceMole and were present in extremely low abundances (∼0.063% of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences). This cleaning protocol can help minimize contamination when working in remote field locations, support microbiological sampling of terrestrial subglacial environments using melting probes, and help inform planetary protection challenges for Ocean World analog mission concepts.
Immunosorbent turnip vein clearing virus (TVCV) particles displaying the IgG-binding domains D and E of Staphylococcus aureus protein A (PA) on every coat protein (CP) subunit (TVCVPA) were purified from plants via optimized and new protocols. The latter used polyethylene glycol (PEG) raw precipitates, from which virions were selectively re-solubilized in reverse PEG concentration gradients. This procedure improved the integrity of both TVCVPA and the wild-type subgroup 3 tobamovirus. TVCVPA could be loaded with more than 500 IgGs per virion, which mediated the immunocapture of fluorescent dyes, GFP, and active enzymes. Bi-enzyme ensembles of cooperating glucose oxidase and horseradish peroxidase were tethered together on the TVCVPA carriers via a single antibody type, with one enzyme conjugated chemically to its Fc region, and the other one bound as a target, yielding synthetic multi-enzyme complexes. In microtiter plates, the TVCVPA-displayed sugar-sensing system possessed a considerably increased reusability upon repeated testing, compared to the IgG-bound enzyme pair in the absence of the virus. A high coverage of the viral adapters was also achieved on Ta2O5 sensor chip surfaces coated with a polyelectrolyte interlayer, as a prerequisite for durable TVCVPA-assisted electrochemical biosensing via modularly IgG-assembled sensor enzymes.
In recent years, the development of large pretrained language models, such as BERT and GPT, significantly improved information extraction systems on various tasks, including relation classification. State-of-the-art systems are highly accurate on scientific benchmarks. A lack of explainability is currently a complicating factor in many real-world applications. Comprehensible systems are necessary to prevent biased, counterintuitive, or harmful decisions.
We introduce semantic extents, a concept to analyze decision patterns for the relation classification task. Semantic extents are the most influential parts of texts concerning classification decisions. Our definition allows similar procedures to determine semantic extents for humans and models. We provide an annotation tool and a software framework to determine semantic extents for humans and models conveniently and reproducibly. Comparing both reveals that models tend to learn shortcut patterns from data. These patterns are hard to detect with current interpretability methods, such as input reductions. Our approach can help detect and eliminate spurious decision patterns during model development. Semantic extents can increase the reliability and security of natural language processing systems. Semantic extents are an essential step in enabling applications in critical areas like healthcare or finance. Moreover, our work opens new research directions for developing methods to explain deep learning models.
A method for detecting and approximating fault lines or surfaces, respectively, or decision curves in two and three dimensions with guaranteed accuracy is presented. Reformulated as a classification problem, our method starts from a set of scattered points along with the corresponding classification algorithm to construct a representation of a decision curve by points with prescribed maximal distance to the true decision curve. Hereby, our algorithm ensures that the representing point set covers the decision curve in its entire extent and features local refinement based on the geometric properties of the decision curve. We demonstrate applications of our method to problems related to the detection of faults, to multi-criteria decision aid and, in combination with Kirsch’s factorization method, to solving an inverse acoustic scattering problem. In all applications we considered in this work, our method requires significantly less pointwise classifications than previously employed algorithms.
It has been shown that muscle fascicle curvature increases with increasing contraction level and decreasing muscle–tendon complex length. The analyses were done with limited examination windows concerning contraction level, muscle–tendon complex length, and/or intramuscular position of ultrasound imaging. With this study we aimed to investigate the correlation between fascicle arching and contraction, muscle–tendon complex length and their associated architectural parameters in gastrocnemius muscles to develop hypotheses concerning the fundamental mechanism of fascicle curving. Twelve participants were tested in five different positions (90°/105°*, 90°/90°*, 135°/90°*, 170°/90°*, and 170°/75°*; *knee/ankle angle). They performed isometric contractions at four different contraction levels (5%, 25%, 50%, and 75% of maximum voluntary contraction) in each position. Panoramic ultrasound images of gastrocnemius muscles were collected at rest and during constant contraction. Aponeuroses and fascicles were tracked in all ultrasound images and the parameters fascicle curvature, muscle–tendon complex strain, contraction level, pennation angle, fascicle length, fascicle strain, intramuscular position, sex and age group were analyzed by linear mixed effect models. Mean fascicle curvature of the medial gastrocnemius increased with contraction level (+5 m−1 from 0% to 100%; p = 0.006). Muscle–tendon complex length had no significant impact on mean fascicle curvature. Mean pennation angle (2.2 m−1 per 10°; p < 0.001), inverse mean fascicle length (20 m−1 per cm−1; p = 0.003), and mean fascicle strain (−0.07 m−1 per +10%; p = 0.004) correlated with mean fascicle curvature. Evidence has also been found for intermuscular, intramuscular, and sex-specific intramuscular differences of fascicle curving. Pennation angle and the inverse fascicle length show the highest predictive capacities for fascicle curving. Due to the strong correlations between pennation angle and fascicle curvature and the intramuscular pattern of curving we suggest for future studies to examine correlations between fascicle curvature and intramuscular fluid pressure.
Ambitious climate targets affect the competitiveness of industries in the international market. To prevent such industries from moving to other countries in the wake of increased climate protection efforts, cost adjustments may become necessary. Their design requires knowledge of country-specific production costs. Here, we present country-specific cost figures for different production routes of steel, paying particular attention to transportation costs. The data can be used in floor price models aiming to assess the competitiveness of different steel production routes in different countries (Rübbelke, 2022).
The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.
Background
Hip fractures are a common and costly health problem, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality, as well as high costs for healthcare systems, especially for the elderly. Implementing surgical preventive strategies has the potential to improve the quality of life and reduce the burden on healthcare resources, particularly in the long term. However, there are currently limited guidelines for standardizing hip fracture prophylaxis practices.
Methods
This study used a cost-effectiveness analysis with a finite-state Markov model and cohort simulation to evaluate the primary and secondary surgical prevention of hip fractures in the elderly. Patients aged 60 to 90 years were simulated in two different models (A and B) to assess prevention at different levels. Model A assumed prophylaxis was performed during the fracture operation on the contralateral side, while Model B included individuals with high fracture risk factors. Costs were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and transition probabilities and health state utilities were derived from available literature. The baseline assumption was a 10% reduction in fracture risk after prophylaxis. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the reliability and variability of the results.
Results
With a 10% fracture risk reduction, model A costs between $8,850 and $46,940 per quality-adjusted life-year ($/QALY). Additionally, it proved most cost-effective in the age range between 61 and 81 years. The sensitivity analysis established that a reduction of ≥ 2.8% is needed for prophylaxis to be definitely cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness at the secondary prevention level was most sensitive to the cost of the contralateral side’s prophylaxis, the patient’s age, and fracture treatment cost. For high-risk patients with no fracture history, the cost-effectiveness of a preventive strategy depends on their risk profile. In the baseline analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at the primary prevention level varied between $11,000/QALY and $74,000/QALY, which is below the defined willingness to pay threshold.
Conclusion
Due to the high cost of hip fracture treatment and its increased morbidity, surgical prophylaxis strategies have demonstrated that they can significantly relieve the healthcare system. Various key assumptions facilitated the modeling, allowing for adequate room for uncertainty. Further research is needed to evaluate health-state-associated risks.
This study evaluates neuromechanical control and muscle-tendon interaction during energy storage and dissipation tasks in hypergravity. During parabolic flights, while 17 subjects performed drop jumps (DJs) and drop landings (DLs), electromyography (EMG) of the lower limb muscles was combined with in vivo fascicle dynamics of the gastrocnemius medialis, two-dimensional (2D) kinematics, and kinetics to measure and analyze changes in energy management. Comparisons were made between movement modalities executed in hypergravity (1.8 G) and gravity on ground (1 G). In 1.8 G, ankle dorsiflexion, knee joint flexion, and vertical center of mass (COM) displacement are lower in DJs than in DLs; within each movement modality, joint flexion amplitudes and COM displacement demonstrate higher values in 1.8 G than in 1 G. Concomitantly, negative peak ankle joint power, vertical ground reaction forces, and leg stiffness are similar between both movement modalities (1.8 G). In DJs, EMG activity in 1.8 G is lower during the COM deceleration phase than in 1 G, thus impairing quasi-isometric fascicle behavior. In DLs, EMG activity before and during the COM deceleration phase is higher, and fascicles are stretched less in 1.8 G than in 1 G. Compared with the situation in 1 G, highly task-specific neuromuscular activity is diminished in 1.8 G, resulting in fascicle lengthening in both movement modalities. Specifically, in DJs, a high magnitude of neuromuscular activity is impaired, resulting in altered energy storage. In contrast, in DLs, linear stiffening of the system due to higher neuromuscular activity combined with lower fascicle stretch enhances the buffering function of the tendon, and thus the capacity to safely dissipate energy.
In this work, the effects of carbon sources and culture media on the production and structural properties of bacterial cellulose (BC) synthesized by Medusomyces gisevii have been studied. The culture medium was composed of different initial concentrations of glucose or sucrose dissolved in 0.4% extract of plain green tea. Parameters of the culture media (titratable acidity, substrate conversion degree etc.) were monitored daily for 20 days of cultivation. The BC pellicles produced on different carbon sources were characterized in terms of biomass yield, crystallinity and morphology by field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), atomic force microscopy and X-ray diffraction. Our results showed that Medusomyces gisevii had higher BC yields in media with sugar concentrations close to 10 g L−1 after a 18–20 days incubation period. Glucose in general lead to a higher BC yield (173 g L−1) compared to sucrose (163.5 g L−1). The BC crystallinity degree and surface roughness were higher in the samples synthetized from sucrose. Obtained FE-SEM micrographs show that the BC pellicles synthesized in the sucrose media contained densely packed tangles of cellulose fibrils whereas the BC produced in the glucose media displayed rather linear geometry of the BC fibrils without noticeable aggregates.
In this paper, we provide an analytical study of the transmission eigenvalue problem with two conductivity parameters. We will assume that the underlying physical model is given by the scattering of a plane wave for an isotropic scatterer. In previous studies, this eigenvalue problem was analyzed with one conductive boundary parameter whereas we will consider the case of two parameters. We prove the existence and discreteness of the transmission eigenvalues as well as study the dependence on the physical parameters. We are able to prove monotonicity of the first transmission eigenvalue with respect to the parameters and consider the limiting procedure as the second boundary parameter vanishes. Lastly, we provide extensive numerical experiments to validate the theoretical work.
We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
Supervised machine learning and deep learning require a large amount of labeled data, which data scientists obtain in a manual, and time-consuming annotation process. To mitigate this challenge, Active Learning (AL) proposes promising data points to annotators they annotate next instead of a subsequent or random sample. This method is supposed to save annotation effort while maintaining model performance.
However, practitioners face many AL strategies for different tasks and need an empirical basis to choose between them. Surveys categorize AL strategies into taxonomies without performance indications. Presentations of novel AL strategies compare the performance to a small subset of strategies. Our contribution addresses the empirical basis by introducing a reproducible active learning evaluation (ALE) framework for the comparative evaluation of AL strategies in NLP.
The framework allows the implementation of AL strategies with low effort and a fair data-driven comparison through defining and tracking experiment parameters (e.g., initial dataset size, number of data points per query step, and the budget). ALE helps practitioners to make more informed decisions, and researchers can focus on developing new, effective AL strategies and deriving best practices for specific use cases. With best practices, practitioners can lower their annotation costs. We present a case study to illustrate how to use the framework.
Companies often build their businesses based on product information and therefore try to automate the process of information extraction (IE). Since the information source is usually heterogeneous and non-standardized, classic extract, transform, load techniques reach their limits. Hence, companies must implement the newest findings from research to tackle the challenges of process automation. They require a flexible and robust system that is extendable and ensures the optimal processing of the different document types. This paper provides a distributed microservice architecture pattern that enables the automated generation of IE pipelines. Since their optimal design is individual for each input document, the system ensures the ad-hoc generation of pipelines depending on specific document characteristics at runtime. Furthermore, it introduces the automated quality determination of each available pipeline and controls the integration of new microservices based on their impact on the business value. The introduced system enables fast prototyping of the newest approaches from research and supports companies in automating their IE processes. Based on the automated quality determination, it ensures that the generated pipelines always meet defined business requirements when they come into productive use.