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Asteroid mining has the potential to greatly reduce the cost of in-space manufacturing, production of propellant for space transportation and consumables for crewed spacecraft, compared to launching the required resources from Earth’s deep gravity well. This paper discusses the top-level mission architecture and trajectory design for these resource-return missions, comparing high-thrust trajectories with continuous low-thrust solar-sail trajectories. This work focuses on maximizing the economic Net Present Value, which takes the time-cost of finance into account and therefore balances the returned resource mass and mission duration. The different propulsion methods will then be compared in terms of maximum economic return, sets of attainable target asteroids, and mission flexibility. This paper provides one more step towards making commercial asteroid mining an economically viable reality by integrating trajectory design, propulsion technology and economic modelling.
In parallel to the evolution of the Planetary Defense Conference, the exploration of small solar system bodies has advanced from fast fly-bys on the sidelines of missions to the planets to the implementation of dedicated sample-return and in-situ analysis missions. Spacecraft of all sizes have landed, touch-and-go sampled, been gently beached, or impacted at hypervelocity on asteroid and comet surfaces. More have flown by close enough to image their surfaces in detail or sample their immediate environment, often as part of an extended or re-purposed mission. And finally, full-scale planetary defense experiment missions are in the making. Highly efficient low-thrust propulsion is increasingly applied beyond commercial use also in mainstream and flagship science missions, in combination with gravity assist propulsion. Another development in the same years is the growth of small spacecraft solutions, not in size but in numbers and individual capabilities. The on-going NASA OSIRIS-REx and JAXA HAYABUSA2 missions exemplify the trend as well as the upcoming NEA SCOUT mission or the landers MINERVA-II and MASCOT recently deployed on Ryugu. We outline likely as well as possible and efficient routes of continuation of all these developments towards a propellant-less and highly efficient class of spacecraft for small solar system body exploration: small spacecraft solar sails designed for carefree handling and equipped with carried landers and application modules, for all asteroid user communities –planetary science, planetary defence, and in-situ resource utilization. This projection builds on the experience gained in the development of deployable membrane structures leading up to the successful ground deployment test of a (20 m)² solar sail at DLR Cologne and in the 20 years since. It draws on the background of extensive trajectory optimization studies, the qualified technology of the DLR GOSSAMER-1 deployment demonstrator, and the MASCOT asteroid lander. These enable ‘now-term’ as well as near-term hardware solutions, and thus responsive fast-paced development. Mission types directly applicable to planetary defense include: single and Multiple NEA Rendezvous ((M)NR) for mitigation precursor, target monitoring and deflection follow-up tasks; sail-propelled head-on retrograde kinetic impactors (RKI) for mitigation; and deployable membrane based methods to modify the asteroid’s properties or interact with it. The DLR-ESTEC GOSSAMER Roadmap initiated studies of missions uniquely feasible with solar sails such as Displaced L1 (DL1) space weather advance warning and monitoring and Solar Polar Orbiter (SPO) delivery which demonstrate the capability of near-term solar sails to achieve NEA rendezvous in any kind of orbit, from Earth-coorbital to extremely inclined and even retrograde orbits. For those mission types using separable payloads, such as SPO, (M)NR and RKI, design concepts can be derived from the separable Boom Sail Deployment Units characteristic of DLR GOSSAMER solar sail technology, nanolanders like MASCOT, or microlanders like the JAXA-DLR Jupiter Trojan Asteroid Lander for the OKEANOS mission which can shuttle from the sail to the asteroids visited and enable multiple NEA sample-return missions. These are an ideal match for solar sails in micro-spacecraft format whose launch configurations are compatible with ESPA and ASAP secondary payload platforms.
For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
