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Following earlier studies, we present forward and inverse simulations of heat and fluid transport of the upper crust using a local 3-D model of the Kola area. We provide best estimates for palaeotemperatures and permeabilities, their errors and their dependencies. Our results allow discriminating between the two mentioned processes to a certain extent, partly resolving the non-uniqueness of the problem. We find clear indications for a significant contribution of advective heat transport, which, in turn, imply only slightly lower ground surface temperatures during the last glacial maximum relative to the present value. These findings are consistent with the general background knowledge of (i) the fracture zones and the corresponding fluid movements in the bedrock and (ii) the glacial history of the Kola area.
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Thrombogenic complications are a main issue in mechanical circulatory support (MCS). There is no validated in vitro method available to quantitatively assess the thrombogenic performance of pulsatile MCS devices under realistic hemodynamic conditions. The aim of this study is to propose a method to evaluate the thrombogenic potential of new designs without the use of complex in-vivo trials. This study presents a novel in vitro method for reproducible thrombogenicity testing of pulsatile MCS systems using low molecular weight heparinized porcine blood. Blood parameters are continuously measured with full blood thromboelastometry (ROTEM; EXTEM, FIBTEM and a custom-made analysis HEPNATEM). Thrombus formation is optically observed after four hours of testing. The results of three experiments are presented each with two parallel loops. The area of thrombus formation inside the MCS device was reproducible. The implantation of a filter inside the loop catches embolizing thrombi without a measurable increase of platelet activation, allowing conclusions of the place of origin of thrombi inside the device. EXTEM and FIBTEM parameters such as clotting velocity (α) and maximum clot firmness (MCF) show a total decrease by around 6% with a characteristic kink after 180 minutes. HEPNATEM α and MCF rise within the first 180 minutes indicate a continuously increasing activation level of coagulation. After 180 minutes, the consumption of clotting factors prevails, resulting in a decrease of α and MCF. With the designed mock loop and the presented protocol we are able to identify thrombogenic hot spots inside a pulsatile pump and characterize their thrombogenic potential.