Open Access

For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.

Any effort which intends to physically interact with specific asteroids requires understanding at least of the composition and multi-scale structure of the surface layers, sometimes also of the interior. Therefore, it is necessary first to characterize each target object sufficiently by a precursor mission to design the mission which then interacts with the object. In small solar system body (SSSB) science missions, this trend towards landing and sample-return missions is most apparent. It also has led to much interest in MASCOT-like landing modules and instrument carriers. They integrate at the instrument level to their mothership and by their size are compatible even with small interplanetary missions. The DLR-ESTEC GOSSAMER Roadmap NEA Science Working Groups' studies identified Multiple NEA Rendezvous (MNR) as one of the space science missions only feasible with solar sail propulsion. The parallel Solar Polar Orbiter (SPO) study showed the ability to access any inclination and a wide range of heliocentric distances. It used a separable payload module conducting the SPO mission after delivery by sail to the proper orbit. The Displaced L1 (DL1), spaceweather early warning mission study, outlined a very lightweight sailcraft operating close to Earth, where all objects of interest to planetary defence must pass. These and many other studies outline the unique capability of solar sails to provide access to all SSSB, at least within the orbit of Jupiter. Since the original MNR study, significant progress has been made to explore the performance envelope of near-term solar sails for multiple NEA rendezvous. However, although it is comparatively easy for solar sails to reach and rendezvous with objects in any inclination and in the complete range of semi-major axis and eccentricity relevant to NEOs and PHOs, it remains notoriously difficult for sailcraft to interact physically with a SSSB target object as e.g. the HAYABUSA missions do. The German Aerospace Center, DLR, recently brought the GOSSAMER solar sail deployment technology to qualification status in the GOSSAMER-1 project and continues the development of closely related technologies for very large deployable membrane-based photovoltaic arrays in the GOSOLAR project, on which we report separately. We expand the philosophy of the GOSSAMER solar sail concept of efficient multiple sub-spacecraft integration to also include landers for one-way in-situ investigations and sample-return missions. These are equally useful for planetary defence scenarios, SSSB science and NEO utilization. We outline the technological concept used to complete such missions and the synergetic integration and operation of sail and lander. We similarly extend the philosophy of MASCOT and use its characteristic features as well as the concept of Constraints-Driven Engineering for a wider range of operations. For example, the MASCOT Mobility hopping mechanism has already been adapted to the specific needs of MASCOT2. Utilizing sensors as well as predictions, those actuators could in a further development be used to implement anti-bouncing control schemes, by counteracting with the lander's rotation. Furthermore by introducing sudden jerk into the lander by utilization of the mobility, layers of loose regolith can be swirled up for sampling.

Physical interaction with small solar system bodies (SSSB) is the next step in planetary science, planetary in-situ resource utilization (ISRU), and planetary defense (PD). It requires a broader understanding of the surface properties of the target objects, with particular interest focused on those near Earth. Knowledge of composition, multi-scale surface structure, thermal response, and interior structure is required to design, validate and operate missions addressing these three fields. The current level of understanding is occasionally simplified into the phrase, ”If you’ve seen one asteroid, you’ve seen one asteroid”, meaning that the in-situ characterization of SSSBs has yet to cross the threshold towards a robust and stable scheme of classification. This would enable generic features in spacecraft design, particularly for ISRU and science missions. Currently, it is necessary to characterize any potential target object sufficiently by a dedicated pre-cursor mission to design the mission which then interacts with the object in a complex fashion. To open up strategic approaches, much broader in-depth characterization of potential target objects would be highly desirable. In SSSB science missions, MASCOT-like nano-landers and instrument carriers which integrate at the instrument level to their mothership have met interest. By its size, MASCOT is compatible with small interplanetary missions. The DLR-ESTEC Gossamer Roadmap Science Working Groups‘ studies identified Multiple Near-Earth asteroid (NEA) Rendezvous (MNR) as one of the space science missions only feasible with solar sail propulsion. The Solar Polar Orbiter (SPO) study showed the ability to access any inclination, theDisplaced-L1 (DL1) mission operates close to Earth, where objects of interest to PD and for ISRU reside. Other studies outline the unique capability of solar sails to provide access to all SSSB, at least within the orbit of Jupiter, and significant progress has been made to explore the performance envelope of near-term solar sails for MNR. However, it is difficult for sailcraft to interact physically with a SSSB. We expand and extend the philosophy of the recently qualified DLR Gossamer solar sail deployment technology using efficient multiple sub-spacecraft integration to also include landers for one-way in-situ investigations and sample-return missions by synergetic integration and operation of sail and lander. The MASCOT design concept and its characteristic features have created an ideal counterpart for thisand has already been adapted to the needs of the AIM spacecraft, former part of the NASA-ESA AIDA missionDesigning the 69th International Astronautical Congress (IAC), Bremen, Germany, 1-5 October 2018. IAC-18-F1.2.3 Page 2 of 17 combined spacecraft for piggy-back launch accommodation enables low-cost massively parallel access to the NEA population.