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This paper presents a novel method for airfoil drag estimation at Reynolds numbers between 4×10⁵ and 4×10⁶. The novel method is based on a systematic study of 40 airfoils applying over 600 numerical simulations and considering natural transition. The influence of the airfoil thickness-to-chord ratio, camber, and freestream Reynolds number on both friction and pressure drag is analyzed in detail. Natural transition significantly affects drag characteristics and leads to distinct drag minima for different Reynolds numbers and thickness-to-chord ratios. The results of the systematic study are used to develop empirical correlations that can accurately predict an airfoil drag at low-lift conditions. The new approach estimates a transition location based on airfoil thickness-to-chord ratio, camber, and Reynolds number. It uses the transition location in a mixed laminar–turbulent skin-friction calculation, and corrects the skin-friction coefficient for separation effects. Pressure drag is estimated separately based on correlations of thickness-to-chord ratio, camber, and Reynolds number. The novel method shows excellent accuracy when compared with wind-tunnel measurements of multiple airfoils. It is easily integrable into existing aircraft design environments and is highly beneficial in the conceptual design stage.