Refine
Year of publication
- 2022 (11) (remove)
Document Type
- Conference Proceeding (9)
- Article (1)
- Part of a Book (1)
Keywords
- Concentrated solar power (3)
- Energy storage (3)
- Hybrid energy system (3)
- Electricity generation (2)
- Power plants (2)
- Solar thermal technologies (2)
- Associated liquids (1)
- Camera system (1)
- Central receiver power plant (1)
- Ceramics (1)
- Cloud passages (1)
- Concentrated systems (1)
- Control optimization (1)
- DNI forecast (1)
- DNI forecasting (1)
- Direct normal irradiance forecast (1)
- Dynamic simulation (1)
- Gas turbine (1)
- Global change (1)
- Heliostat Field Calibration (1)
Institute
Concerning current efforts to improve operational efficiency and to lower overall costs of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants with prediction-based algorithms, this study investigates the quality and uncertainty of nowcasting data regarding the implications for process predictions. DNI (direct normal irradiation) maps from an all-sky imager-based nowcasting system are applied to a dynamic prediction model coupled with ray tracing. The results underline the need for high-resolution DNI maps in order to predict net yield and receiver outlet temperature realistically. Furthermore, based on a statistical uncertainty analysis, a correlation is developed, which allows for predicting the uncertainty of the net power prediction based on the corresponding DNI forecast uncertainty. However, the study reveals significant prediction errors and the demand for further improvement in the accuracy at which local shadings are forecasted.