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Institute
- Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften (1012) (remove)
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and is considered a high-risk asset
class whose price changes are difficult to predict. Current research focusses
on daily price movements with a limited number of predictors. The paper at
hand aims at identifying measurable indicators for Bitcoin price movement s
and the development of a suitable forecasting model for hourly changes. The
paper provides three research contributions. First, a set of significant
indicators for predicting the Bitcoin price is identified. Second, the results of
a trained Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) neural network that predicts
price changes on an hourly basis is presented and compared with other
algorithms. Third, the results foster discussions of the applicability of neural
nets for stock price predictions. In total, 47 input features for a period of
over 10 months could be retrieved to train a neural net that predicts the
Bitcoin price movements with an error rate of 3.52 %.
