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We analyze the trading behavior of individual investors in option-like securities, namely bankissued warrants, and thus expand the growing literature of investors behavior to a new kind of securities. A unique data set from a large German discount broker gives us the opportunity to analyze the trading behavior of 1,454 investors, making 89,958 transactions in 6,724 warrants on 397 underlyings. In different logit regression, we make use of the facts that investors can speculate on rising and falling prices of the underlying with call and put warrants and that we also have information about the stock portfolios of the investors. We report several facts about the trading behavior of individual investors in warrants that are consistent with the literature on the behavior of individual investors in the stock market. The warrant investors buy calls and sell puts if the price of the underlying has decreased over the past trading days and they sell calls and buy puts if the price of the underlying has increased. That means, the investors follow negative feedback trading strategies in all four trading categories observed. In addition, we find strong evidence for the disposition effect for call as well as put warrants, which is reversed in December. The trading behavior is also influenced if the underlying reaches some exceptionally prices, e.g. highs, lows or the strike price. We show that hedging, as one natural candidate to buy puts, does not play an important role in the market for bank-issued warrants.
Leveraging Social Network Data for Analytical CRM Strategies - The Introduction of Social BI.
(2012)
Prioritization is an essential task within requirements engineering to cope with complexity and to establish focus properly. The 3rd Workshop on Requirements Prioritization for customer oriented Software Development (RePriCo’12) focused on requirements prioritization and adjacent themes in the context of customer oriented development of bespoke and standard software. Five submissions have been accepted for the proceedings and for presentation. The report summarizes and points out key findings.
The construction of a statistical test is investigated which is based only on “reliability” and “precision” as quality criteria. The reliability of a statistical test is quantifiedin a straightforward way by the probability that the decision of the test is correct. However, the quantification of the precision of a statistical test is not at all evident. Thereforethe paper presents and discusses several approaches. Moreover the distinction of “nullhypothesis” and “alternative hypothesis” is not necessary any longer.
With a steady increase of regulatory requirements for business processes, automation support of compliance management is a field garnering increasing attention in Information Systems research. Several approaches have been developed to support compliance checking of process models. One major challenge for such approaches is their ability to handle different modeling techniques and compliance rules in order to enable widespread adoption and application. Applying a structured literature search strategy, we reflect and discuss compliance-checking approaches in order to provide an insight into their generalizability and evaluation. The results imply that current approaches mainly focus on special modeling techniques and/or a restricted set of types of compliance rules. Most approaches abstain from real-world evaluation which raises the question of their practical applicability. Referring to the search results, we propose a roadmap for further research in model-based business process compliance checking.
Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?