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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
Small Spacecraft in Planetary Defence Related Applications–Capabilities, Constraints, Challenges
(2015)
In this paper we present an overview of the characteristics and peculiarities of small spacecraft missions related to planetary defence applications. We provide a brief overview of small spacecraft missions to small solar system bodies. On this background we present recent missions and selected projects and related studies at the German Aerospace Center, DLR, that contribute to planetary defence related activities. These range from Earth orbit technology demonstrators to active science missions in interplanetary space. We provide a summary of experience from recently flown missions with DLR participation as well as a number of studies. These include PHILAE, the lander recently arrived on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko aboard ESA’s ROSETTA comet rendezvous mission, and the Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout, MASCOT, now underway to near-Earth asteroid (162173) 1999 JU3 aboard the Japanese sample-return probe HAYABUSA-2. We introduce the differences between the conventional methods employed in the design, integration and testing of large spacecraft and the new approaches developed by small spacecraft projects. We expect that the practical experience that can be gained from projects on extremely
compressed timelines or with high-intensity operation phases on a newly explored small solar system body can contribute significantly to the study, preparation and realization of future planetary defence related missions. One is AIDA (Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment), a joint effort of ESA,JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR, combining JHU/APL’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESA’s AIM (Asteroid Impact Monitor) spacecraft in a mission towards
near-Eath binary asteroid (65803) Didymos.
We propose a simple parametric OSSD model that describes the variation of the sail film's optical coefficients with time, depending on the sail film's environmental history, i.e., the radiation dose. The primary intention of our model is not to describe the exact behavior of specific film-coating combinations in the real space environment, but to provide a more general parametric framework for describing the general optical degradation behavior of solar sails.
The recently discovered first high velocity hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Interstellar objects likely formed very far from the solar system in both time and space; their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
Multiple Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous and Sample Return Using First Generation Solar Sailcraft
(2005)
A technology reference study for a multiple near-Earth object (NEO) rendezvous mission with solar sailcraft is currently carried out by the authors of this paper. The investigated mission builds on previous concepts, but adopts a strong micro-spacecraft philosophy based on the DLR/ESA Gossamer technology. The main scientific objective of the mission is to explore the diversity of NEOs. After direct interplanetary insertion, the solar sailcraft should—within less than 10 years—rendezvous three NEOs that are not only scientifically interesting, but also from the point of human spaceight and planetary defense. In this paper, the objectives of the study are outlined and a preliminary potential mission profile is presented.
The scientific interest in near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and the classification of some of those as potentially hazardous asteroid for the Earth stipulated the interest in NEA exploration. Close-up observations of these objects will increase drastically our knowledge about the overall NEA population. For this reason, a multiple NEA rendezvous mission through solar sailing is investigated, taking advantage of the propellantless nature of this groundbreaking propulsion technology. Considering a spacecraft based on the DLR/ESA Gossamer technology, this work focuses on the search of possible sequences of NEA encounters. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through a number of fully-optimized trajectories. The results show that it is possible to visit five NEAs within 10 years with near-term solar-sail technology. Moreover, a study on a reduced NEA database demonstrates the reliability of the approach used, showing that 58% of the sequences found with an approximated trajectory model can be converted into real solar-sail trajectories. Lastly, this second study shows the effectiveness of the proposed automatic optimization algorithm, which is able to find solutions for a large number of mission scenarios without any input required from the user.
Enceladus explorer - A maneuverable subsurface probe for autonomous navigation through deep ice
(2012)
This paper describes the results and methods used during the 8th Global Trajectory Optimization Competition (GTOC) of the DLR team. Trajectory optimization is crucial for most of the space missions and usually can be formulated as a global optimization problem. A lot of research has been done to different type of mission problems. The most demanding ones are low thrust transfers with e.g. gravity assist sequences. In that case the optimal control problem is combined with an integer problem. In most of the GTOCs we apply a filtering of the problem based on domain knowledge.
Searching optimal interplanetary trajectories for low-thrust spacecraft is usually a difficult and time-consuming task that involves much experience and expert knowledge in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This is because the convergence behavior of traditional local optimizers, which are based on numerical optimal control methods, depends on an adequate initial guess, which is often hard to find, especially for very-low-thrust trajectories that necessitate many revolutions around the sun. The obtained solutions are typically close to the initial guess that is rarely close to the (unknown) global optimum. Within this paper, trajectory optimization problems are attacked from the perspective of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Inspired by natural archetypes, a smart global method for low-thrust trajectory optimization is proposed that fuses artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms into so-called evolutionary neurocontrollers. This novel method runs without an initial guess and does not require the attendance of an expert in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This paper details how evolutionary neurocontrol works and how it could be implemented. The performance of the method is assessed for three different interplanetary missions with a thrust to mass ratio <0.15mN/kg (solar sail and nuclear electric).
The recently proposed NASA and ESA missions to Saturn and Jupiter pose difficult tasks to mission designers because chemical propulsion scenarios are not capable of transferring heavy spacecraft into the outer solar system without the use of gravity assists. Thus our developed mission scenario based on the joint NASA/ESA Titan Saturn System Mission baselines solar electric propulsion to improve mission flexibility and transfer time. For the calculation of near-globally optimal low-thrust trajectories, we have used a method called Evolutionary Neurocontrol, which is implemented in the low-thrust trajectory optimization software InTrance. The studied solar electric propulsion scenario covers trajectory optimization of the interplanetary transfer including variations of the spacecraft's thrust level, the thrust unit's specific impulse and the solar power generator power level. Additionally developed software extensions enabled trajectory optimization with launcher-provided hyperbolic excess energy, a complex solar power generator model and a variable specific impulse ion engine model. For the investigated mission scenario, Evolutionary Neurocontrol yields good optimization results, which also hold valid for the more elaborate spacecraft models. Compared to Cassini/Huygens, the best found solutions have faster transfer times and a higher mission flexibility in general.