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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
Small Spacecraft in Planetary Defence Related Applications–Capabilities, Constraints, Challenges
(2015)
In this paper we present an overview of the characteristics and peculiarities of small spacecraft missions related to planetary defence applications. We provide a brief overview of small spacecraft missions to small solar system bodies. On this background we present recent missions and selected projects and related studies at the German Aerospace Center, DLR, that contribute to planetary defence related activities. These range from Earth orbit technology demonstrators to active science missions in interplanetary space. We provide a summary of experience from recently flown missions with DLR participation as well as a number of studies. These include PHILAE, the lander recently arrived on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko aboard ESA’s ROSETTA comet rendezvous mission, and the Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout, MASCOT, now underway to near-Earth asteroid (162173) 1999 JU3 aboard the Japanese sample-return probe HAYABUSA-2. We introduce the differences between the conventional methods employed in the design, integration and testing of large spacecraft and the new approaches developed by small spacecraft projects. We expect that the practical experience that can be gained from projects on extremely
compressed timelines or with high-intensity operation phases on a newly explored small solar system body can contribute significantly to the study, preparation and realization of future planetary defence related missions. One is AIDA (Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment), a joint effort of ESA,JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR, combining JHU/APL’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESA’s AIM (Asteroid Impact Monitor) spacecraft in a mission towards
near-Eath binary asteroid (65803) Didymos.
We propose a simple parametric OSSD model that describes the variation of the sail film's optical coefficients with time, depending on the sail film's environmental history, i.e., the radiation dose. The primary intention of our model is not to describe the exact behavior of specific film-coating combinations in the real space environment, but to provide a more general parametric framework for describing the general optical degradation behavior of solar sails.
The recently discovered first high velocity hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Interstellar objects likely formed very far from the solar system in both time and space; their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
Multiple Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous and Sample Return Using First Generation Solar Sailcraft
(2005)
A technology reference study for a multiple near-Earth object (NEO) rendezvous mission with solar sailcraft is currently carried out by the authors of this paper. The investigated mission builds on previous concepts, but adopts a strong micro-spacecraft philosophy based on the DLR/ESA Gossamer technology. The main scientific objective of the mission is to explore the diversity of NEOs. After direct interplanetary insertion, the solar sailcraft should—within less than 10 years—rendezvous three NEOs that are not only scientifically interesting, but also from the point of human spaceight and planetary defense. In this paper, the objectives of the study are outlined and a preliminary potential mission profile is presented.
The scientific interest in near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and the classification of some of those as potentially hazardous asteroid for the Earth stipulated the interest in NEA exploration. Close-up observations of these objects will increase drastically our knowledge about the overall NEA population. For this reason, a multiple NEA rendezvous mission through solar sailing is investigated, taking advantage of the propellantless nature of this groundbreaking propulsion technology. Considering a spacecraft based on the DLR/ESA Gossamer technology, this work focuses on the search of possible sequences of NEA encounters. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated through a number of fully-optimized trajectories. The results show that it is possible to visit five NEAs within 10 years with near-term solar-sail technology. Moreover, a study on a reduced NEA database demonstrates the reliability of the approach used, showing that 58% of the sequences found with an approximated trajectory model can be converted into real solar-sail trajectories. Lastly, this second study shows the effectiveness of the proposed automatic optimization algorithm, which is able to find solutions for a large number of mission scenarios without any input required from the user.
Enceladus explorer - A maneuverable subsurface probe for autonomous navigation through deep ice
(2012)
This paper describes the results and methods used during the 8th Global Trajectory Optimization Competition (GTOC) of the DLR team. Trajectory optimization is crucial for most of the space missions and usually can be formulated as a global optimization problem. A lot of research has been done to different type of mission problems. The most demanding ones are low thrust transfers with e.g. gravity assist sequences. In that case the optimal control problem is combined with an integer problem. In most of the GTOCs we apply a filtering of the problem based on domain knowledge.
Searching optimal interplanetary trajectories for low-thrust spacecraft is usually a difficult and time-consuming task that involves much experience and expert knowledge in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This is because the convergence behavior of traditional local optimizers, which are based on numerical optimal control methods, depends on an adequate initial guess, which is often hard to find, especially for very-low-thrust trajectories that necessitate many revolutions around the sun. The obtained solutions are typically close to the initial guess that is rarely close to the (unknown) global optimum. Within this paper, trajectory optimization problems are attacked from the perspective of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Inspired by natural archetypes, a smart global method for low-thrust trajectory optimization is proposed that fuses artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms into so-called evolutionary neurocontrollers. This novel method runs without an initial guess and does not require the attendance of an expert in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This paper details how evolutionary neurocontrol works and how it could be implemented. The performance of the method is assessed for three different interplanetary missions with a thrust to mass ratio <0.15mN/kg (solar sail and nuclear electric).
The recently proposed NASA and ESA missions to Saturn and Jupiter pose difficult tasks to mission designers because chemical propulsion scenarios are not capable of transferring heavy spacecraft into the outer solar system without the use of gravity assists. Thus our developed mission scenario based on the joint NASA/ESA Titan Saturn System Mission baselines solar electric propulsion to improve mission flexibility and transfer time. For the calculation of near-globally optimal low-thrust trajectories, we have used a method called Evolutionary Neurocontrol, which is implemented in the low-thrust trajectory optimization software InTrance. The studied solar electric propulsion scenario covers trajectory optimization of the interplanetary transfer including variations of the spacecraft's thrust level, the thrust unit's specific impulse and the solar power generator power level. Additionally developed software extensions enabled trajectory optimization with launcher-provided hyperbolic excess energy, a complex solar power generator model and a variable specific impulse ion engine model. For the investigated mission scenario, Evolutionary Neurocontrol yields good optimization results, which also hold valid for the more elaborate spacecraft models. Compared to Cassini/Huygens, the best found solutions have faster transfer times and a higher mission flexibility in general.
A technology reference study for a solar polar mission is presented. The study uses novel analytical methods to quantify the mission design space including the required sail performance to achieve a given solar polar observation angle within a given timeframe and thus to derive mass allocations for the remaining spacecraft sub-systems, that is excluding the solar sail sub-system. A parametric, bottom-up, system mass budget analysis is then used to establish the required sail technology to deliver a range of science payloads, and to establish where such payloads can be delivered to within a given timeframe. It is found that a solar polar mission requires a solar sail of side-length 100–125 m to deliver a ‘sufficient value’ minimum science payload, and that a 2.5 μm sail film substrate is typically required, however the design is much less sensitive to the boom specific mass.
Flight times to the heliopause using a combination of solar and radioisotope electric propulsion
(2011)
We investigate the interplanetary flight of a low-thrust space probe to the heliopause,located at a distance of about 200 AU from the Sun. Our goal was to reach this distance within the 25 years postulated by ESA for such a mission (which is less ambitious than the 15-year goal set by NASA). Contrary to solar sail concepts and combinations of allistic and electrically propelled flight legs, we have investigated whether the set flight time limit could also be kept with a combination of solar-electric propulsion and a second, RTG-powered upper stage. The used ion engine type was the RIT-22 for the first stage and the RIT-10 for the second stage. Trajectory optimization was carried out with the low-thrust optimization program InTrance, which implements the method of Evolutionary Neurocontrol,using Artificial Neural Networks for spacecraft steering and Evolutionary Algorithms to optimize the Neural Networks’ parameter set. Based on a parameter space study, in which the number of thrust units, the unit’s specific impulse, and the relative size of the solar power generator were varied, we have chosen one configuration as reference. The transfer time of this reference configuration was 29.6 years and the fastest one, which is technically
more challenging, still required 28.3 years. As all flight times of this parameter study were longer than 25 years, we further shortened the transfer time by applying a launcher-provided hyperbolic excess energy up to 49 km2/s2. The resulting minimal flight time for the reference configuration was then 27.8 years. The following, more precise optimization to a launch with the European Ariane 5 ECA rocket reduced the transfer time to 27.5 years. This is the fastest mission design of our study that is flexible enough to allow a launch every
year. The inclusion of a fly-by at Jupiter finally resulted in a flight time of 23.8 years,which is below the set transfer-time limit. However, compared to the 27.5-year transfer,this mission design has a significantly reduced launch window and mission flexibility if the
escape direction is restricted to the heliosphere’s “nose".
Attitude and Orbital Dynamics Modeling for an Uncontrolled Solar-Sail Experiment in Low-Earth Orbit
(2015)
In this chapter, the key technologies and the instrumentation required for the subsurface exploration of ocean worlds are discussed. The focus is laid on Jupiter’s moon Europa and Saturn’s moon Enceladus because they have the highest potential for such missions in the near future. The exploration of their oceans requires landing on the surface, penetrating the thick ice shell with an ice-penetrating probe, and probably diving with an underwater vehicle through dozens of kilometers of water to the ocean floor, to have the chance to find life, if it exists. Technologically, such missions are extremely challenging. The required key technologies include power generation, communications, pressure resistance, radiation hardness, corrosion protection, navigation, miniaturization, autonomy, and sterilization and cleaning. Simpler mission concepts involve impactors and penetrators or – in the case of Enceladus – plume-fly-through missions.
The search for life on Mars and in the Solar System - strategies, logistics and infrastructures
(2018)
The question "Are we alone in the Universe?" is perhaps the most fundamental one that affects mankind. How can we address the search for life in our Solar System? Mars, Enceladus and Europa are the focus of the search for life outside the terrestrial biosphere. While it is more likely to find remnants of life (fossils of extinct life) on Mars because of its past short time window of the surface habitability, it is probably more likely to find traces of extant life on the icy moons and ocean worlds of Jupiter and Saturn. Nevertheless, even on Mars there could still be a chance to find extant life in niches near to the surface or in just discovered subglacial lakes beneath the South Pole ice cap. Here, the different approaches for the detection of traces of life in the form of biosignatures including pre-biotic molecules will be presented. We will outline the required infrastructure for this enterprise and give examples of future mission concepts to investigate the presence of life on other planets and moons. Finally, we will provide suggestions on methods, techniques, operations and strategies for preparation and realization of future life detection missions.
Solar Sail Kinetic Energy Impactor Trajectory Optimization for an Asteroid-Deflection Mission
(2007)
Solar Sails for Near- and Medium-Term Scientific Deep Space Missions / W. Sebolt ; B. Dachwald
(2005)
Optimization of Interplanetary Rendezvous Trajectories for Solar Sailcraft Using a Neurocontroller
(2002)
Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis provides a typical example for the evolution of asteroid orbits that lead to Earth-impacts after a close Earth-encounter that results in a resonant return. Apophis will have a close Earth-encounter in 2029 with potential very close subsequent Earth-encounters (or even an impact) in 2036 or later, depending on whether it passes through one of several so-called gravitational keyholes during its 2029-encounter. Several pre-2029-deflection scenarios to prevent Apophis from doing this have been investigated so far. Because the keyholes are less than 1 km in size, a pre-2029 kinetic impact is clearly the best option because it requires only a small change in Apophis' orbit to nudge it out of a keyhole. A single solar sail Kinetic Energy Impactor (KEI) spacecraft that impacts Apophis from a retrograde trajectory with a very high relative velocity (75-80 km/s) during one of its perihelion passages at about 0.75 AU would be a feasible option to do this. The spacecraft consists of a 160 m x 160 m, 168 kg solar sail assembly and a 150 kg impactor. Although conventional spacecraft can also achieve the required minimum deflection of 1 km for this approx. 320 m-sized object from a prograde trajectory, our solar sail KEI concept also allows the deflection of larger objects. In this paper, we also show that, even after Apophis has flown through one of the gravitational keyholes in 2029, solar sail Kinetic Energy Impactor (KEI) spacecraft are still a feasible option to prevent Apophis from impacting the Earth, but many KEIs would be required for consecutive impacts to increase the total Earth-miss distance to a safe value. In this paper, we elaborate potential pre- and post-2029 KEI impact scenarios for a launch in 2020, and investigate tradeoffs between different mission parameters.
Solar sails provide ignificant advantages over other low-thrust propulsion systems because they produce thrust by the momentum exchange from solar radiation pressure (SRP) and thus do not consume any propellant.The force exerted on a very thin sail foil basically depends on the light incidence angle. Several analytical SRP force models that describe the SRP force acting on the sail have been established since the 1970s. All the widely used models use constant optical force coefficients of the reflecting sail material. In 2006,MENGALI et al. proposed a refined SRP force model that takes into account the dependancy of the force coefficients on the light incident angle,the sail’s distance from the sun (and thus the sail emperature) and the surface roughness of the sail material [1]. In this paper, the refined SRP force model is compared to the previous ones in order to identify the potential impact of the new model on the predicted capabilities of solar sails in performing low-cost interplanetary space missions. All force models have been implemented within InTrance, a global low-thrust trajectory optimization software utilizing evolutionary neurocontrol [2]. Two interplanetary rendezvous missions, to Mercury and the near-Earth asteroid 1996FG3, are investigated. Two solar sail performances in terms of characteristic acceleration are examined for both scenarios, 0.2 mm/s2 and 0.5 mm/s2, termed “low” and “medium” sail performance. In case of the refined SRP model, three different values of surface roughness are chosen, h = 0 nm, 10 nm and 25 nm. The results show that the refined SRP force model yields shorter transfer times than the standard model.
With the increased interest for interstellar exploration after the discovery of exoplanets and the proposal by Breakthrough Starshot, this paper investigates the optimisation of photon-sail trajectories in Alpha Centauri. The prime objective is to find the optimal steering strategy for a photonic sail to get captured around one of the stars after a minimum-time transfer from Earth. By extending the idea of the Breakthrough Starshot project with a deceleration phase upon arrival, the mission’s scientific yield will be increased. As a secondary objective, transfer trajectories between the stars and orbit-raising manoeuvres to explore the habitable zones of the stars are investigated. All trajectories are optimised for minimum time of flight using the trajectory optimisation software InTrance. Depending on the sail technology, interstellar travel times of 77.6-18,790 years can be achieved, which presents an average improvement of 30% with respect to previous work. Still, significant technological development is required to reach and be captured in the Alpha-Centauri system in less than a century. Therefore, a fly-through mission arguably remains the only option for a first exploratory mission to Alpha Centauri, but the enticing results obtained in this work provide perspective for future long-residence missions to our closest neighbouring star system.
An Interstellar – Heliopause mission using a combination of solar/radioisotope electric propulsion
(2011)
There is common agreement within the scientific community that in order to understand our local galactic environment it will be necessary to send a spacecraft into the region beyond the solar wind termination shock. Considering distances of 200 AU for a new mission, one needs a spacecraft travelling at a speed of close to 10 AU/yr in order to keep the mission duration in the range of less than 25 yrs, a transfer time postulated by ESA.Two propulsion options for the mission have been proposed and discussed so far: the solar sail propulsion and the ballistic/radioisotope electric propulsion. As a further alternative, we here investigate a combination of solar-electric propulsion and radioisotope-electric propulsion. The solar-electric propulsion stage consists of six 22 cm diameter “RIT-22”ion thrusters working with a high specific impulse of 7377 s corresponding to a positive grid voltage of 5 kV. Solar power of 53 kW BOM is provided by a light-weight solar array. The REP-stage consists of four space-proven 10 cm diameter “RIT-10” ion thrusters that will be operating one after the other for 9 yrs in total. Four advanced radioisotope generators provide 648 W at BOM. The scientific instrument package is oriented at earlier studies. For its mass and electric power requirement 35 kg and 35 W are assessed, respectively. Optimized trajectory calculations, treated in a separate contribution, are based on our “InTrance” method.The program yields a burn out of the REP stage in a distance of 79.6 AU for a usage of 154 kg of Xe propellant. With a C3 = 45,1 (km/s)2 a heliocentric probe velocity of 10 AU/yr is reached at this distance, provided a close Jupiter gravity assist adds a velocity increment of 2.7 AU/yr. A transfer time of 23.8 yrs results for this scenario requiring about 450 kg Xe for the SEP stage, jettisoned at 3 AU. We interpret the SEP/REP propulsion as a competing alternative to solar sail and ballistic/REP propulsion. Omiting a Jupiter fly-by even allows more launch flexibility, leaving the mission duration in the range of the ESA specification.