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Der Temperaturanstieg der vergangenen Jahrzehnte war in Gebirgsregionen besonders ausgeprägt. Sollte sich dieser Temperaturtrend im 21. Jahrhundert fortsetzen, dann dürf-ten sich auch die Häufigkeit und Intensität von Niederschlä-gen und Trockenperioden verändern, was die Waldwirtschaft vor grosse Herausforderungen stellen wird. Trockenheit ist ein entscheidender Faktor für die Waldökosysteme der inner-alpinen Täler, wo seit Jahren trockenheitsbedingtes Baum-sterben festgestellt wird. Der vorliegende Beitrag hat zum Ziel, die Sensitivität der verschiedenen Waldökosysteme ge-genüber Klimawandel und alternative, teilweise extreme Bewirtschaftungsvarianten in der Region Visp zu testen. Me-thodische Ansätze wie Monitoring, Feldexperimente und dy-namische Modellierung wurden kombiniert, und es wurden verschiedene Ökosystemleistungen berücksichtigt, so Holz-produktion, Schutz vor Naturgefahren, Kohlenstoffspeiche-rung und Aspekte der Biodiversität. Die Resultate deuten da-rauf hin, dass auf den Trockenstandorten der Tieflagen die einheimischen Baumarten an ihre physiologischen Grenzen stossen und längerfristig über alternative Baumarten nach-gedacht werden sollte. In den mittleren Lagen dürften Tro-ckenheit und Schadinsekten wie die Borkenkäfer die zukünf-tige Waldentwicklung steuern. In den Hochlagen hingegen werden sich die Wälder ausdehnen und besser wachsen als heute. Alle untersuchten Ökosystemleistungen werden ge-bietsweise starken Veränderungen unterworfen sein. Die dis-kutierten Bewirtschaftungsvarianten scheinen dazu geeignet, die Wasserverfügbarkeit der Bestände, hauptsächlich in tief-eren Lagen, zu erhöhen und dadurch die Widerstandskraft der Bäume gegenüber Trockenperioden vorübergehend zu stärken. Es ist aber davon ausgehen, dass nur verhältnismäs-sig starke Eingriffe wesentliche Effekte erzielen können. Die Verknüpfung von Umweltmonitoring, Feldexperimenten und Modellierung unter Miteinbezug von Ökosystemleistungen ist vielversprechend, da sie eine differenzierte Abschätzung des zukünftigen Landschaftswandels und seiner Effekte auf die Waldleistungen ermöglicht.
An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.
Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.
Dynamik bei Eisenbahnbrücken
(2012)
Enceladus explorer - A maneuverable subsurface probe for autonomous navigation through deep ice
(2012)
We analyze the trading behavior of individual investors in option-like securities, namely bankissued warrants, and thus expand the growing literature of investors behavior to a new kind of securities. A unique data set from a large German discount broker gives us the opportunity to analyze the trading behavior of 1,454 investors, making 89,958 transactions in 6,724 warrants on 397 underlyings. In different logit regression, we make use of the facts that investors can speculate on rising and falling prices of the underlying with call and put warrants and that we also have information about the stock portfolios of the investors. We report several facts about the trading behavior of individual investors in warrants that are consistent with the literature on the behavior of individual investors in the stock market. The warrant investors buy calls and sell puts if the price of the underlying has decreased over the past trading days and they sell calls and buy puts if the price of the underlying has increased. That means, the investors follow negative feedback trading strategies in all four trading categories observed. In addition, we find strong evidence for the disposition effect for call as well as put warrants, which is reversed in December. The trading behavior is also influenced if the underlying reaches some exceptionally prices, e.g. highs, lows or the strike price. We show that hedging, as one natural candidate to buy puts, does not play an important role in the market for bank-issued warrants.