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This paper presents a numerical procedure for reliability analysis of thin plates and shells with respect to plastic collapse or to inadaptation. The procedure involves a deterministic shakedown analysis for each probabilistic iteration, which is based on the upper bound approach and the use of the exact Ilyushin yield surface. Probabilistic shakedown analysis deals with uncertainties originated from the loads, material strength and thickness of the shell. Based on a direct definition of the limit state function, the calculation of the failure probability may be efficiently solved by using the First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM). The problem of reliability of structural systems (series systems) is handled by the application of a special technique which permits to find all the design points corresponding to all the failure modes. Studies show, in this case, that it improves considerably the FORM and SORM results.
Direct methods comprising limit and shakedown analysis is a branch of computational mechanics. It plays a significant role in mechanical and civil engineering design. The concept of direct method aims to determinate the ultimate load bearing capacity of structures beyond the elastic range. For practical problems, the direct methods lead to nonlinear convex optimization problems with a large number of variables and onstraints. If strength and loading are random quantities, the problem of shakedown analysis is considered as stochastic programming. This paper presents a method so called chance constrained programming, an effective method of stochastic programming, to solve shakedown analysis problem under random condition of strength. In this our investigation, the loading is deterministic, the strength is distributed as normal or lognormal variables.