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This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.
Dynamics of Granular Material Avalanches and Numerical Approximations of Savage-Hutter Models
(2004)
Solar sails enable missions to the outer solar system and beyond, although the solar
radiation pressure decreases with the square of solar distance. For such missions, the solar sail may gain a large amount of energy by first making one or more close approaches to the sun. Within this paper, optimal trajectories for solar sail missions to the outer planets and into near interstellar space (200 AU) are presented. Thereby, it is shown that even near/medium-term solar sails with relatively moderate performance allow reasonable transfer times to the boundaries of the solar system.