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We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.
Data-driven prediction and prevention of extreme events in a spatially extended excitable system
(2015)
Let X₁,…,Xₙ be independent and identically distributed random variables with distribution F. Assuming that there are measurable functions f:R²→R and g:R²→R characterizing a family F of distributions on the Borel sets of R in the way that the random variables f(X₁,X₂),g(X₁,X₂) are independent, if and only if F∈F, we propose to treat the testing problem H:F∈F,K:F∉F by applying a consistent nonparametric independence test to the bivariate sample variables (f(Xᵢ,Xⱼ),g(Xᵢ,Xⱼ)),1⩽i,j⩽n,i≠j. A parametric bootstrap procedure needed to get critical values is shown to work. The consistency of the test is discussed. The power performance of the procedure is compared with that of the classical tests of Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von Mises in the special cases where F is the family of gamma distributions or the family of inverse Gaussian distributions.