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This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.
Dynamics of Granular Material Avalanches and Numerical Approximations of Savage-Hutter Models
(2004)
Solar sails enable missions to the outer solar system and beyond, although the solar
radiation pressure decreases with the square of solar distance. For such missions, the solar sail may gain a large amount of energy by first making one or more close approaches to the sun. Within this paper, optimal trajectories for solar sail missions to the outer planets and into near interstellar space (200 AU) are presented. Thereby, it is shown that even near/medium-term solar sails with relatively moderate performance allow reasonable transfer times to the boundaries of the solar system.
Recently, in his vision for space exploration, US president Bush announced to extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon as early as 2015 in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. In Europe, an exploration program, termed AURORA, was established by ESA in 2001 – funded on a voluntary basis by ESA member states – with a clear focus on Mars and the ultimate goal of landing humans on Mars around 2030 in international cooperation. In 2003, a Human Spaceflight Vision Group was appointed by ESA with the task to develop a vision for the role of human spaceflight during the next quarter of the century. The resulting vision focused on a European-led lunar exploration initiative as part of a multi-decade, international effort to strengthen European identity and economy. After a review of the situation in Europe concerning space exploration, the paper outlines an approach for a consistent positioning of exploration within the existing European space programs, identifies destinations, and develops corresponding scenarios for an integrated strategy, starting with robotic missions to the Moon, Mars, and near-Earth asteroids. The interests of the European planetary in-situ science community, which recently met at DLR Cologne, are considered. Potential robotic lunar missions comprise polar landings to search for frozen volatiles and a sample return. For Mars, the implementation of a modest robotic landing mission in 2009 to demonstrate the capability for landing and prepare more ambitious and complex missions is discussed. For near-Earth asteroid exploration, a low-cost in-situ technology demonstration mission could yield important results. All proposed scenarios offer excellent science and could therefore create synergies between ESA’s mandatory and optional programs in the area of planetary science and exploration. The paper intents to stimulate the European discussion on space exploration and reflects the personal view of the authors.
Technische Thermodynamik
(2005)
Das Drallrohr
(2005)
Multiple Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous and Sample Return Using First Generation Solar Sailcraft
(2005)
Searching optimal interplanetary trajectories for low-thrust spacecraft is usually a difficult and time-consuming task that involves much experience and expert knowledge in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This is because the convergence behavior of traditional local optimizers, which are based on numerical optimal control methods, depends on an adequate initial guess, which is often hard to find, especially for very-low-thrust trajectories that necessitate many revolutions around the sun. The obtained solutions are typically close to the initial guess that is rarely close to the (unknown) global optimum. Within this paper, trajectory optimization problems are attacked from the perspective of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Inspired by natural archetypes, a smart global method for low-thrust trajectory optimization is proposed that fuses artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms into so-called evolutionary neurocontrollers. This novel method runs without an initial guess and does not require the attendance of an expert in astrodynamics and optimal control theory. This paper details how evolutionary neurocontrol works and how it could be implemented. The performance of the method is assessed for three different interplanetary missions with a thrust to mass ratio <0.15mN/kg (solar sail and nuclear electric).
Solar Sails for Near- and Medium-Term Scientific Deep Space Missions / W. Sebolt ; B. Dachwald
(2005)
Low-thrust space propulsion systems enable flexible high-energy deep space missions, but the design and optimization of the interplanetary transfer trajectory is usually difficult. It involves much experience and expert knowledge because the convergence behavior of traditional local trajectory optimization methods depends strongly on an adequate initial guess. Within this extended abstract, evolutionary neurocontrol, a method that fuses artificial neural networks and evolutionary algorithms, is proposed as a smart global method for low-thrust trajectory optimization. It does not require an initial guess. The implementation of evolutionary neurocontrol is detailed and its performance is shown for an exemplary mission.
Solar Sail Trajectory Optimization for Intercepting, Impacting, and Deflecting Near-Earth Asteroids
(2005)
The optical properties of the thin metalized polymer films that are projected for solar sails are assumed to be affected by the erosive effects of the space environment. Their degradation behavior in the real space environment, however, is to a considerable degree indefinite, because initial ground test results are controversial and relevant inspace tests have not been made so far. The standard optical solar sail models that are currently used for trajectory design do not take optical degradation into account, hence its potential effects on trajectory design have not been investigated so far. Nevertheless, optical degradation is important for high-fidelity solar sail mission design, because it decreases both the magnitude of the solar radiation pressure force acting on the sail and also the sail control authority. Therefore, we propose a simple parametric optical solar sail degradation model that describes the variation of the sail film’s optical coefficients with time, depending on the sail film’s environmental history, i.e., the radiation dose. The primary intention of our model is not to describe the exact behavior of specific film-coating combinations in the real space environment, but to provide a more general parametric framework for describing the general optical degradation behavior of solar sails. Using our model, the effects of different optical degradation behaviors on trajectory design are investigated for various exemplary missions.
Anmerkungen zur DIN EN 12101-2 über die Prüfung von natürlichen Rauch- und Wärmeabzugsanlagen (NRGW)
(2006)
Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis provides a typical example for the evolution of asteroid orbits that lead to Earth-impacts after a close Earth-encounter that results in a resonant return. Apophis will have a close Earth-encounter in 2029 with potential very close subsequent Earth-encounters (or even an impact) in 2036 or later, depending on whether it passes through one of several so-called gravitational keyholes during its 2029-encounter. Several pre-2029-deflection scenarios to prevent Apophis from doing this have been investigated so far. Because the keyholes are less than 1 km in size, a pre-2029 kinetic impact is clearly the best option because it requires only a small change in Apophis' orbit to nudge it out of a keyhole. A single solar sail Kinetic Energy Impactor (KEI) spacecraft that impacts Apophis from a retrograde trajectory with a very high relative velocity (75-80 km/s) during one of its perihelion passages at about 0.75 AU would be a feasible option to do this. The spacecraft consists of a 160 m x 160 m, 168 kg solar sail assembly and a 150 kg impactor. Although conventional spacecraft can also achieve the required minimum deflection of 1 km for this approx. 320 m-sized object from a prograde trajectory, our solar sail KEI concept also allows the deflection of larger objects. In this paper, we also show that, even after Apophis has flown through one of the gravitational keyholes in 2029, solar sail Kinetic Energy Impactor (KEI) spacecraft are still a feasible option to prevent Apophis from impacting the Earth, but many KEIs would be required for consecutive impacts to increase the total Earth-miss distance to a safe value. In this paper, we elaborate potential pre- and post-2029 KEI impact scenarios for a launch in 2020, and investigate tradeoffs between different mission parameters.
Under DLR-contract, Giessen University and DLR Cologne are studying solar-electric propulsion missions (SEP) to the outer regions of the solar system. The most challenging reference mission concerns the transport of a 1.35-tons chemical lander spacecraft into an 80-RJ circular orbit around Jupiter, which would enable to place a 375 kg lander with 50 kg of scientific instruments on the surface of the icy moon "Europa". Thorough analyses show that the best solution in terms of SEP launch mass times thrusting time would be a two-stage EP module and a triple-junction solar array with concentrators which would be deployed step by step. Mission performance optimizations suggest to propel the spacecraft in the first EP stage by 6 gridded ion thrusters, running at 4.0 kV of beam voltage, which would save launch mass, and in the second stage by 4 thrusters with 1.25 to 1.5 kV of positive high voltage saving thrusting time. In this way, the launch mass of the spacecraft would be kept within 5.3 tons. Without a launcher's C3 and interplanetary gravity assists, Jupiter might be reached within about 4 yrs. The spiraling-down into the parking orbit would need another 1.8 yrs. This "large mission" can be scaled down to a smaller one, e.g., by halving all masses, the solar array power, and the number of thrusters. Due to their reliability, long lifetime and easy control, RIT-22 engines have been chosen for mission analysis. Based on precise tests, the thruster performance has been modeled.
Die Erfindung betrifft einen elektromagnetischen Aktuator zur Betätigung eines Stellgliedes (7) mit wenigstens einem gesteuert bestrombaren Elektromagneten (1, 2) und einem mit dem Stellglied (7) in Wirkverbindung stehenden Anker (5), der bei Bestromung des Elektromagneten (1, 2) gegen die Kraft wenigstens einer an einem Gehäuse (12) abgestützten Rückstellfeder (10) an der Polfläche (3, 4) des Elektromagneten (1, 2) zur Anlage kommt, und daß zumindest der Anker (5) über eine sphärische Gelenkanordnung (11) auf der Rückstellfeder (10) abgestützt ist.
In this paper the way to a 5-day-car with respect to a modular valve train systems for spark ignited combustion engines is shown. The necessary product diversity is shift from mechanical or physical components to software components. Therefore, significant improvements of logistic indicators are expected and shown. The working principle of a camless cylinder head with respect to an electromagnetical valve train (EMVT) is explained and it is demonstrated that shifting physical diversity to software is feasible. The future design of combustion engine systems including customisation can be supported by a set of assistance tools which is shown exemplary.
Testing of a 10 kW diffusive micro-mix combustor for hydrogen-fuelled micro-scale gas turbines
(2007)
Using results from an 8 m2 instrumented force plate we describe field measurements of normal and shear stresses, and fluid pore pressure for a debris flow. The flow depth increased from 0.1 to 1 m within the first 12 s of flow front arrival, remained relatively constant until 100 s, and then gradually decreased to 0.5 m by 600 s. Normal and shear stresses and pore fluid pressure varied in-phase with the flow depth. Calculated bulk densities are ρb = 2000–2250 kg m−3 for the bulk flow and ρf = 1600–1750 kg m−3 for the fluid phase. The ratio of effective normal stress to shear stress yields a Coulomb basal friction angle of ϕ = 26° at the flow front. We did not find a strong correlation between the degree of agitation in the flow, estimated using the signal from a geophone on the force plate, and an assumed dynamic pore fluid pressure. Our data support the idea that excess pore-fluid pressures are long lived in debris flows and therefore contribute to their unusual mobility.