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Given industrial applications, the costs for the operation and maintenance of a pump system typically far exceed its purchase price. For finding an optimal pump configuration which minimizes not only investment, but life-cycle costs, methods like Technical Operations Research which is based on Mixed-Integer Programming can be applied. However, during the planning phase, the designer is often faced with uncertain input data, e.g. future load demands can only be estimated. In this work, we deal with this uncertainty by developing a chance-constrained two-stage (CCTS) stochastic program. The design and operation of a booster station working under uncertain load demand are optimized to minimize total cost including purchase price, operation cost incurred by energy consumption and penalty cost resulting from water shortage. We find optimized system layouts using a sample average approximation (SAA) algorithm, and analyze the results for different risk levels of water shortage. By adjusting the risk level, the costs and performance range of the system can be balanced, and thus the
system’s resilience can be engineered
On obligations in the development process of resilient systems with algorithmic design methods
(2018)
Advanced computational methods are needed both for the design of large systems and to compute high accuracy solutions. Such methods are efficient in computation, but the validation of results is very complex, and highly skilled auditors are needed to verify them. We investigate legal questions concerning obligations in the development phase, especially for technical systems developed using advanced methods. In particular, we consider methods of resilient and robust optimization. With these techniques, high performance solutions can be found, despite a high variety of input parameters. However, given the novelty of these methods, it is uncertain whether legal obligations are being met. The aim of this paper is to discuss if and how the choice of a specific computational method affects the developer’s product liability. The review of legal obligations in this paper is based on German law and focuses on the requirements that must be met during the design and development process.
Ensuring access to water and sanitation for all is Goal No. 6 of the 17 UN Sustainability Development Goals to transform our world. As one step towards this goal, we present an approach that leverages remote sensing data to plan optimal water supply networks for informal urban settlements. The concept focuses on slums within large urban areas, which are often characterized by a lack of an appropriate water supply. We apply methods of mathematical optimization aiming to find a network describing the optimal supply infrastructure. Hereby, we choose between different decentral and central approaches combining supply by motorized vehicles with supply by pipe systems. For the purposes of illustration, we apply the approach to two small slum clusters in Dhaka and Dar es Salaam. We show our optimization results, which represent the lowest cost water supply systems possible. Additionally, we compare the optimal solutions of the two clusters (also for varying input parameters, such as population densities and slum size development over time) and describe how the result of the optimization depends on the entered remote sensing data.
The transition within transportation towards battery electric vehicles can lead to a more sustainable future. To account for the development goal ‘climate action’ stated by the United Nations, it is mandatory, within the conceptual design phase, to derive energy-efficient system designs. One barrier is the uncertainty of the driving behaviour within the usage phase. This uncertainty is often addressed by using a stochastic synthesis process to derive representative driving cycles and by using cycle-based optimization. To deal with this uncertainty, a new approach based on a stochastic optimization program is presented. This leads to an optimization model that is solved with an exact solver. It is compared to a system design approach based on driving cycles and a genetic algorithm solver. Both approaches are applied to find efficient electric powertrains with fixed-speed and multi-speed transmissions. Hence, the similarities, differences and respective advantages of each optimization procedure are discussed.
Algorithmic design and resilience assessment of energy efficient high-rise water supply systems
(2018)
High-rise water supply systems provide water flow and suitable pressure in all levels of tall buildings. To design such state-of-the-art systems, the consideration of energy efficiency and the anticipation of component failures are mandatory. In this paper, we use Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming to compute an optimal placement of pipes and pumps, as well as an optimal control strategy.Moreover, we consider the resilience of the system to pump failures. A resilient system is able to fulfill a predefined minimum functionality even though components fail or are restricted in their normal usage. We present models to measure and optimize the resilience. To demonstrate our approach, we design and analyze an optimal resilient decentralized water supply system inspired by a real-life hotel building.
The application of mathematical optimization methods for water supply system design and operation provides the capacity to increase the energy efficiency and to lower the investment costs considerably. We present a system approach for the optimal design and operation of pumping systems in real-world high-rise buildings that is based on the usage of mixed-integer nonlinear and mixed-integer linear modeling approaches. In addition, we consider different booster station topologies, i.e. parallel and series-parallel central booster stations as well as decentral booster stations. To confirm the validity of the underlying optimization models with real-world system behavior, we additionally present validation results based on experiments conducted on a modularly constructed pumping test rig. Within the models we consider layout and control decisions for different load scenarios, leading to a Deterministic Equivalent of a two-stage stochastic optimization program. We use a piecewise linearization as well as a piecewise relaxation of the pumps’ characteristics to derive mixed-integer linear models. Besides the solution with off-the-shelf solvers, we present a problem specific exact solving algorithm to improve the computation time. Focusing on the efficient exploration of the solution space, we divide the problem into smaller subproblems, which partly can be cut off in the solution process. Furthermore, we discuss the performance and applicability of the solution approaches for real buildings and analyze the technical aspects of the solutions from an engineer’s point of view, keeping in mind the economically important trade-off between investment and operation costs.
The recently discovered first hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/’Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.
Geochemical characterisation of hypersaline waters is difficult as high concentrations of salts hinder the analysis of constituents at low concentrations, such as trace metals, and the collection of samples for trace metal analysis in natural waters can be easily contaminated. This is particularly the case if samples are collected by non-conventional techniques such as those required for aquatic subglacial environments. In this paper we present the first analysis of a subglacial brine from Taylor Valley, (~ 78°S), Antarctica for the trace metals: Ba, Co, Mo, Rb, Sr, V, and U. Samples were collected englacially using an electrothermal melting probe called the IceMole. This probe uses differential heating of a copper head as well as the probe’s sidewalls and an ice screw at the melting head to move through glacier ice. Detailed blanks, meltwater, and subglacial brine samples were collected to evaluate the impact of the IceMole and the borehole pump, the melting and collection process, filtration, and storage on the geochemistry of the samples collected by this device. Comparisons between melt water profiles through the glacier ice and blank analysis, with published studies on ice geochemistry, suggest the potential for minor contributions of some species Rb, As, Co, Mn, Ni, NH4+, and NO2−+NO3− from the IceMole. The ability to conduct detailed chemical analyses of subglacial fluids collected with melting probes is critical for the future exploration of the hundreds of deep subglacial lakes in Antarctica.
Test-retest reliability of the internal shoulder rotator muscles' stretch reflex in healthy men
(2021)
Until now the reproducibility of the short latency stretch reflex of the internal rotator muscles of the glenohumeral joint has not been identified. Twenty-three healthy male participants performed three sets of external shoulder rotation stretches with various pre-activation levels on two different dates of measurement to assess test-retest reliability. All stretches were applied with a dynamometer acceleration of 104°/s2 and a velocity of 150°/s. Electromyographical response was measured via surface EMG. Reflex latencies showed a pre-activation effect (ƞ2 = 0,355). ICC ranged from 0,735 to 0,909 indicating an overall “good” relative reliability. SRD 95% lay between ±7,0 to ±12,3 ms.. The reflex gain showed overall poor test-retest reproducibility. The chosen methodological approach presented a suitable test protocol for shoulder muscles stretch reflex latency evaluation. A proof-of-concept study to validate the presented methodical approach in shoulder involvement including subjects with clinically relevant conditions is recommended.
Microbial diversity studies regarding the aquatic communities that experienced or are experiencing environmental problems are essential for the comprehension of the remediation dynamics. In this pilot study, we present data on the phylogenetic and ecological structure of microorganisms from epipelagic water samples collected in the Small Aral Sea (SAS). The raw data were generated by massive parallel sequencing using the shotgun approach. As expected, most of the identified DNA sequences belonged to Terrabacteria and Actinobacteria (40% and 37% of the total reads, respectively). The occurrence of Deinococcus-Thermus, Armatimonadetes, Chloroflexi in the epipelagic SAS waters was less anticipated. Surprising was also the detection of sequences, which are characteristic for strict anaerobes—Ignavibacteria, hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria, and archaeal methanogenic species. We suppose that the observed very broad range of phylogenetic and ecological features displayed by the SAS reads demonstrates a more intensive mixing of water masses originating from diverse ecological niches of the Aral-Syr Darya River basin than presumed before.
We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.
We consider a binary multivariate regression model where the conditional expectation of a binary variable given a higher-dimensional input variable belongs to a parametric family. Based on this, we introduce a model-based bootstrap (MBB) for higher-dimensional input variables. This test can be used to check whether a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations belongs to such a parametric family. The approach is based on the empirical residual process introduced by Stute (Ann Statist 25:613–641, 1997). In contrast to Stute and Zhu’s approach (2002) Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), a transformation is not required. Thus, any problems associated with non-parametric regression estimation are avoided. As a result, the MBB method is much easier for users to implement. To illustrate the power of the MBB based tests, a small simulation study is performed. Compared to the approach of Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), the simulations indicate a slightly improved power of the MBB based method. Finally, both methods are applied to a real data set.
The fourth industrial revolution introduces disruptive technologies to production environments. One of these technologies are multi-agent systems (MASs), where agents virtualize machines. However, the agent's actual performances in production environments can hardly be estimated as most research has been focusing on isolated projects and specific scenarios. We address this gap by implementing a highly connected and configurable reference model with quantifiable key performance indicators (KPIs) for production scheduling and routing in single-piece workflows. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm to optimize the search of extrema in highly connected distributed systems. The benefits, limits, and drawbacks of MASs and their performances are evaluated extensively by event-based simulations against the introduced model, which acts as a benchmark. Even though the performance of the proposed MAS is, on average, slightly lower than the reference system, the increased flexibility allows it to find new solutions and deliver improved factory-planning outcomes. Our MAS shows an emerging behavior by using flexible production techniques to correct errors and compensate for bottlenecks. This increased flexibility offers substantial improvement potential. The general model in this paper allows the transfer of the results to estimate real systems or other models.
Extension fractures are typical for the deformation under low or no confining pressure. They can be explained by a phenomenological extension strain failure criterion. In the past, a simple empirical criterion for fracture initiation in brittle rock has been developed. In this article, it is shown that the simple extension strain criterion makes unrealistic strength predictions in biaxial compression and tension. To overcome this major limitation, a new extension strain criterion is proposed by adding a weighted principal shear component to the simple criterion. The shear weight is chosen, such that the enriched extension strain criterion represents the same failure surface as the Mohr–Coulomb (MC) criterion. Thus, the MC criterion has been derived as an extension strain criterion predicting extension failure modes, which are unexpected in the classical understanding of the failure of cohesive-frictional materials. In progressive damage of rock, the most likely fracture direction is orthogonal to the maximum extension strain leading to dilatancy. The enriched extension strain criterion is proposed as a threshold surface for crack initiation CI and crack damage CD and as a failure surface at peak stress CP. Different from compressive loading, tensile loading requires only a limited number of critical cracks to cause failure. Therefore, for tensile stresses, the failure criteria must be modified somehow, possibly by a cut-off corresponding to the CI stress. Examples show that the enriched extension strain criterion predicts much lower volumes of damaged rock mass compared to the simple extension strain criterion.