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In the context of the Solvency II directive, the operation of an internal risk model is a possible way for risk assessment and for the determination of the solvency capital requirement of an insurance company in the European Union. A Monte Carlo procedure is customary to generate a model output. To be compliant with the directive, validation of the internal risk model is conducted on the basis of the model output. For this purpose, we suggest a new test for checking whether there is a significant change in the modeled solvency capital requirement. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are investigated and a bootstrap approximation is justified. A simulation study investigates the performance of the test in the finite sample case and confirms the theoretical results. The internal risk model and the application of the test is illustrated in a simplified example. The method has more general usage for inference of a broad class of law-invariant and coherent risk measures on the basis of a paired sample.
We discuss the testing problem of homogeneity of the marginal distributions of a continuous bivariate distribution based on a paired sample with possibly missing components (missing completely at random). Applying the well-known two-sample Crámer–von-Mises distance to the remaining data, we determine the limiting null distribution of our test statistic in this situation. It is seen that a new resampling approach is appropriate for the approximation of the unknown null distribution. We prove that the resulting test asymptotically reaches the significance level and is consistent. Properties of the test under local alternatives are pointed out as well. Simulations investigate the quality of the approximation and the power of the new approach in the finite sample case. As an illustration we apply the test to real data sets.
The established Hoeffding-Blum-Kiefer-Rosenblatt independence test statistic is investigated for partly not identically distributed data. Surprisingly, it turns out that the statistic has the well-known distribution-free limiting null distribution of the classical criterion under standard regularity conditions. An application is testing goodness-of-fit for the regression function in a non parametric random effects meta-regression model, where the consistency is obtained as well. Simulations investigate size and power of the approach for small and moderate sample sizes. A real data example based on clinical trials illustrates how the test can be used in applications.
On the basis of independent and identically distributed bivariate random vectors, where the components are categorial and continuous variables, respectively, the related concomitants, also called induced order statistic, are considered. The main theoretical result is a functional central limit theorem for the empirical process of the concomitants in a triangular array setting. A natural application is hypothesis testing. An independence test and a two-sample test are investigated in detail. The fairly general setting enables limit results under local alternatives and bootstrap samples. For the comparison with existing tests from the literature simulation studies are conducted. The empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings.
This paper considers a paired data framework and discusses the question of marginal homogeneity of bivariate high-dimensional or functional data. The related testing problem can be endowed into a more general setting for paired random variables taking values in a general Hilbert space. To address this problem, a Cramér–von-Mises type test statistic is applied and a bootstrap procedure is suggested to obtain critical values and finally a consistent test. The desired properties of a bootstrap test can be derived that are asymptotic exactness under the null hypothesis and consistency under alternatives. Simulations show the quality of the test in the finite sample case. A possible application is the comparison of two possibly dependent stock market returns based on functional data. The approach is demonstrated based on historical data for different stock market indices.
Inference on the basis of high-dimensional and functional data are two topics which are discussed frequently in the current statistical literature. A possibility to include both topics in a single approach is working on a very general space for the underlying observations, such as a separable Hilbert space. We propose a general method for consistently hypothesis testing on the basis of random variables with values in separable Hilbert spaces. We avoid concerns with the curse of dimensionality due to a projection idea. We apply well-known test statistics from nonparametric inference to the projected data and integrate over all projections from a specific set and with respect to suitable probability measures. In contrast to classical methods, which are applicable for real-valued random variables or random vectors of dimensions lower than the sample size, the tests can be applied to random vectors of dimensions larger than the sample size or even to functional and high-dimensional data. In general, resampling procedures such as bootstrap or permutation are suitable to determine critical values. The idea can be extended to the case of incomplete observations. Moreover, we develop an efficient algorithm for implementing the method. Examples are given for testing goodness-of-fit in a one-sample situation in [1] or for testing marginal homogeneity on the basis of a paired sample in [2]. Here, the test statistics in use can be seen as generalizations of the well-known Cramérvon-Mises test statistics in the one-sample and two-samples case. The treatment of other testing problems is possible as well. By using the theory of U-statistics, for instance, asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics are obtained as the sample size tends to infinity. Standard continuity assumptions ensure the asymptotic exactness of the tests under the null hypothesis and that the tests detect any alternative in the limit. Simulation studies demonstrate size and power of the tests in the finite sample case, confirm the theoretical findings, and are used for the comparison with concurring procedures. A possible application of the general approach is inference for stock market returns, also in high data frequencies. In the field of empirical finance, statistical inference of stock market prices usually takes place on the basis of related log-returns as data. In the classical models for stock prices, i.e., the exponential Lévy model, Black-Scholes model, and Merton model, properties such as independence and stationarity of the increments ensure an independent and identically structure of the data. Specific trends during certain periods of the stock price processes can cause complications in this regard. In fact, our approach can compensate those effects by the treatment of the log-returns as random vectors or even as functional data.
When confining pressure is low or absent, extensional fractures are typical, with fractures occurring on unloaded planes in rock. These “paradox” fractures can be explained by a phenomenological extension strain failure criterion. In the past, a simple empirical criterion for fracture initiation in brittle rock has been developed. But this criterion makes unrealistic strength predictions in biaxial compression and tension. A new extension strain criterion overcomes this limitation by adding a weighted principal shear component. The weight is chosen, such that the enriched extension strain criterion represents the same failure surface as the Mohr–Coulomb (MC) criterion. Thus, the MC criterion has been derived as an extension strain criterion predicting failure modes, which are unexpected in the understanding of the failure of cohesive-frictional materials. In progressive damage of rock, the most likely fracture direction is orthogonal to the maximum extension strain. The enriched extension strain criterion is proposed as a threshold surface for crack initiation CI and crack damage CD and as a failure surface at peak P. Examples show that the enriched extension strain criterion predicts much lower volumes of damaged rock mass compared to the simple extension strain criterion.
On the basis of bivariate data, assumed to be observations of independent copies of a random vector (S,N), we consider testing the hypothesis that the distribution of (S,N) belongs to the parametric class of distributions that arise with the compound Poisson exponential model. Typically, this model is used in stochastic hydrology, with N as the number of raindays, and S as total rainfall amount during a certain time period, or in actuarial science, with N as the number of losses, and S as total loss expenditure during a certain time period. The compound Poisson exponential model is characterized in the way that a specific transform associated with the distribution of (S,N) satisfies a certain differential equation. Mimicking the function part of this equation by substituting the empirical counterparts of the transform we obtain an expression the weighted integral of the square of which is used as test statistic. We deal with two variants of the latter, one of which being invariant under scale transformations of the S-part by fixed positive constants. Critical values are obtained by using a parametric bootstrap procedure. The asymptotic behavior of the tests is discussed. A simulation study demonstrates the performance of the tests in the finite sample case. The procedure is applied to rainfall data and to an actuarial dataset. A multivariate extension is also discussed.
FEM shakedown analysis of structures under random strength with chance constrained programming
(2022)
Direct methods, comprising limit and shakedown analysis, are a branch of computational mechanics. They play a significant role in mechanical and civil engineering design. The concept of direct methods aims to determine the ultimate load carrying capacity of structures beyond the elastic range. In practical problems, the direct methods lead to nonlinear convex optimization problems with a large number of variables and constraints. If strength and loading are random quantities, the shakedown analysis can be formulated as stochastic programming problem. In this paper, a method called chance constrained programming is presented, which is an effective method of stochastic programming to solve shakedown analysis problems under random conditions of strength. In this study, the loading is deterministic, and the strength is a normally or lognormally distributed variable.
REM sleep without atonia (RSWA) is a key feature for the diagnosis of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behaviour disorder (RBD). We introduce RBDtector, a novel open-source software to score RSWA according to established SINBAR visual scoring criteria. We assessed muscle activity of the mentalis, flexor digitorum superficialis (FDS), and anterior tibialis (AT) muscles. RSWA was scored manually as tonic, phasic, and any activity by human scorers as well as using RBDtector in 20 subjects. Subsequently, 174 subjects (72 without RBD and 102 with RBD) were analysed with RBDtector to show the algorithm’s applicability. We additionally compared RBDtector estimates to a previously published dataset. RBDtector showed robust conformity with human scorings. The highest congruency was achieved for phasic and any activity of the FDS. Combining mentalis any and FDS any, RBDtector identified RBD subjects with 100% specificity and 96% sensitivity applying a cut-off of 20.6%. Comparable performance was obtained without manual artefact removal. RBD subjects also showed muscle bouts of higher amplitude and longer duration. RBDtector provides estimates of tonic, phasic, and any activity comparable to human scorings. RBDtector, which is freely available, can help identify RBD subjects and provides reliable RSWA metrics.
The European Union's aim to become climate neutral by 2050 necessitates ambitious efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Large reductions can be attained particularly in energy intensive sectors like iron and steel. In order to prevent the relocation of such industries outside the EU in the course of tightening environmental regulations, the establishment of a climate club jointly with other large emitters and alternatively the unilateral implementation of an international cross-border carbon tax mechanism are proposed. This article focuses on the latter option choosing the steel sector as an example. In particular, we investigate the financial conditions under which a European cross border mechanism is capable to protect hydrogen-based steel production routes employed in Europe against more polluting competition from abroad. By using a floor price model, we assess the competitiveness of different steel production routes in selected countries. We evaluate the climate friendliness of steel production on the basis of specific GHG emissions. In addition, we utilize an input-output price model. It enables us to assess impacts of rising cost of steel production on commodities using steel as intermediates. Our results raise concerns that a cross-border tax mechanism will not suffice to bring about competitiveness of hydrogen-based steel production in Europe because the cost tends to remain higher than the cost of steel production in e.g. China. Steel is a classic example for a good used mainly as intermediate for other products. Therefore, a cross-border tax mechanism for steel will increase the price of products produced in the EU that require steel as an input. This can in turn adversely affect competitiveness of these sectors. Hence, the effects of higher steel costs on European exports should be borne in mind and could require the cross-border adjustment mechanism to also subsidize exports.
Reliable methods for automatic readability assessment have the potential to impact a variety of fields, ranging from machine translation to self-informed learning. Recently, large language models for the German language (such as GBERT and GPT-2-Wechsel) have become available, allowing to develop Deep Learning based approaches that promise to further improve automatic readability assessment. In this contribution, we studied the ability of ensembles of fine-tuned GBERT and GPT-2-Wechsel models to reliably predict the readability of German sentences. We combined these models with linguistic features and investigated the dependence of prediction performance on ensemble size and composition. Mixed ensembles of GBERT and GPT-2-Wechsel performed better than ensembles of the same size consisting of only GBERT or GPT-2-Wechsel models. Our models were evaluated in the GermEval 2022 Shared Task on Text Complexity Assessment on data of German sentences. On out-of-sample data, our best ensemble achieved a root mean squared error of 0:435.
This study addresses a proof-of-concept experiment with a biocompatible screen-printed carbon electrode deposited onto a biocompatible and biodegradable substrate, which is made of fibroin, a protein derived from silk of the Bombyx mori silkworm. To demonstrate the sensor performance, the carbon electrode is functionalized as a glucose biosensor with the enzyme glucose oxidase and encapsulated with a silicone rubber to ensure biocompatibility of the contact wires. The carbon electrode is fabricated by means of thick-film technology including a curing step to solidify the carbon paste. The influence of the curing temperature and curing time on the electrode morphology is analyzed via scanning electron microscopy. The electrochemical characterization of the glucose biosensor is performed by amperometric/voltammetric measurements of different glucose concentrations in phosphate buffer. Herein, systematic studies at applied potentials from 500 to 1200 mV to the carbon working electrode (vs the Ag/AgCl reference electrode) allow to determine the optimal working potential. Additionally, the influence of the curing parameters on the glucose sensitivity is examined over a time period of up to 361 days. The sensor shows a negligible cross-sensitivity toward ascorbic acid, noradrenaline, and adrenaline. The developed biocompatible biosensor is highly promising for future in vivo and epidermal applications.
Retinal vessels are similar to cerebral vessels in their structure and function. Moderately low oscillation frequencies of around 0.1 Hz have been reported as the driving force for paravascular drainage in gray matter in mice and are known as the frequencies of lymphatic vessels in humans. We aimed to elucidate whether retinal vessel oscillations are altered in Alzheimer's disease (AD) at the stage of dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Seventeen patients with mild-to-moderate dementia due to AD (ADD); 23 patients with MCI due to AD, and 18 cognitively healthy controls (HC) were examined using Dynamic Retinal Vessel Analyzer. Oscillatory temporal changes of retinal vessel diameters were evaluated using mathematical signal analysis. Especially at moderately low frequencies around 0.1 Hz, arterial oscillations in ADD and MCI significantly prevailed over HC oscillations and correlated with disease severity. The pronounced retinal arterial vasomotion at moderately low frequencies in the ADD and MCI groups would be compatible with the view of a compensatory upregulation of paravascular drainage in AD and strengthen the amyloid clearance hypothesis.
Edge-based and face-based smoothed finite element methods (ES-FEM and FS-FEM, respectively) are modified versions of the finite element method allowing to achieve more accurate results and to reduce sensitivity to mesh distortion, at least for linear elements. These properties make the two methods very attractive. However, their implementation in a standard finite element code is nontrivial because it requires heavy and extensive modifications to the code architecture. In this article, we present an element-based formulation of ES-FEM and FS-FEM methods allowing to implement the two methods in a standard finite element code with no modifications to its architecture. Moreover, the element-based formulation permits to easily manage any type of element, especially in 3D models where, to the best of the authors' knowledge, only tetrahedral elements are used in FS-FEM applications found in the literature. Shape functions for non-simplex 3D elements are proposed in order to apply FS-FEM to any standard finite element.
The mechanical behavior of the large intestine beyond the ultimate stress has never been investigated. Stretching beyond the ultimate stress may drastically impair the tissue microstructure, which consequently weakens its healthy state functions of absorption, temporary storage, and transportation for defecation. Due to closely similar microstructure and function with humans, biaxial tensile experiments on the porcine large intestine have been performed in this study. In this paper, we report hyperelastic characterization of the large intestine based on experiments in 102 specimens. We also report the theoretical analysis of the experimental results, including an exponential damage evolution function. The fracture energies and the threshold stresses are set as damage material parameters for the longitudinal muscular, the circumferential muscular and the submucosal collagenous layers. A biaxial tensile simulation of a linear brick element has been performed to validate the applicability of the estimated material parameters. The model successfully simulates the biomechanical response of the large intestine under physiological and non-physiological loads.
Image reconstruction analysis for positron emission tomography with heterostructured scintillators
(2022)
The concept of structure engineering has been proposed for exploring the next generation of radiation detectors with improved performance. A TOF-PET geometry with heterostructured scintillators with a pixel size of 3.0×3.1×15 mm3 was simulated using Monte Carlo. The heterostructures consisted of alternating layers of BGO as a dense material with high stopping power and plastic (EJ232) as a fast light emitter. The detector time resolution was calculated as a function of the deposited and shared energy in both materials on an event-by-event basis. While sensitivity was reduced to 32% for 100 μm thick plastic layers and 52% for 50 μm, the CTR distribution improved to 204±49 ps and 220±41 ps respectively, compared to 276 ps that we considered for bulk BGO. The complex distribution of timing resolutions was accounted for in the reconstruction. We divided the events into three groups based on their CTR and modeled them with different Gaussian TOF kernels. On a NEMA IQ phantom, the heterostructures had better contrast recovery in early iterations. On the other hand, BGO achieved a better contrast to noise ratio (CNR) after the 15th iteration due to the higher sensitivity. The developed simulation and reconstruction methods constitute new tools for evaluating different detector designs with complex time responses.
Biomedical applications of magnetic nanoparticles (MNP) fundamentally rely on the particles’ magnetic relaxation as a response to an alternating magnetic field. The magnetic relaxation complexly depends on the interplay of MNP magnetic and physical properties with the applied field parameters. It is commonly accepted that particle core size is a major contributor to signal generation in all the above applications, however, most MNP samples comprise broad distribution spanning nm and more. Therefore, precise knowledge of the exact contribution of individual core sizes to signal generation is desired for optimal MNP design generally for each application. Specifically, we present a magnetic relaxation simulation-driven analysis of experimental frequency mixing magnetic detection (FMMD) for biosensing to quantify the contributions of individual core size fractions towards signal generation. Applying our method to two different experimental MNP systems, we found the most dominant contributions from approx. 20 nm sized particles in the two independent MNP systems. Additional comparison between freely suspended and immobilized MNP also reveals insight in the MNP microstructure, allowing to use FMMD for MNP characterization, as well as to further fine-tune its applicability in biosensing.
Frequency mixing magnetic detection (FMMD) has been widely utilized as a measurement technique in magnetic immunoassays. It can also be used for the characterization and distinction (also known as “colourization”) of different types of magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs) based on their core sizes. In a previous work, it was shown that the large particles contribute most of the FMMD signal. This leads to ambiguities in core size determination from fitting since the contribution of the small-sized particles is almost undetectable among the strong responses from the large ones. In this work, we report on how this ambiguity can be overcome by modelling the signal intensity using the Langevin model in thermodynamic equilibrium including a lognormal core size distribution fL(dc,d0,σ) fitted to experimentally measured FMMD data of immobilized MNPs. For each given median diameter d0, an ambiguous amount of best-fitting pairs of parameters distribution width σ and number of particles Np with R2 > 0.99 are extracted. By determining the samples’ total iron mass, mFe, with inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES), we are then able to identify the one specific best-fitting pair (σ, Np) one uniquely. With this additional externally measured parameter, we resolved the ambiguity in core size distribution and determined the parameters (d0, σ, Np) directly from FMMD measurements, allowing precise MNPs sample characterization.
Biocompatibility, flexibility and durability make polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) membranes top candidates in biomedical applications. CellDrum technology uses large area, <10 µm thin membranes as mechanical stress sensors of thin cell layers. For this to be successful, the properties (thickness, temperature, dust, wrinkles, etc.) must be precisely controlled. The following parameters of membrane fabrication by means of the Floating-on-Water (FoW) method were investigated: (1) PDMS volume, (2) ambient temperature, (3) membrane deflection and (4) membrane mechanical compliance. Significant differences were found between all PDMS volumes and thicknesses tested (p < 0.01). They also differed from the calculated values. At room temperatures between 22 and 26 °C, significant differences in average thickness values were found, as well as a continuous decrease in thicknesses within a 4 °C temperature elevation. No correlation was found between the membrane thickness groups (between 3–4 µm) in terms of deflection and compliance. We successfully present a fabrication method for thin bio-functionalized membranes in conjunction with a four-step quality management system. The results highlight the importance of tight regulation of production parameters through quality control. The use of membranes described here could also become the basis for material testing on thin, viscous layers such as polymers, dyes and adhesives, which goes far beyond biological applications.