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Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
An increasing number of applications target their executions on specific hardware like general purpose Graphics Processing Units. Some Cloud Computing providers offer this specific hardware so that organizations can rent such resources. However, outsourcing the whole application to the Cloud causes avoidable costs if only some parts of the application benefit from the specific expensive hardware. A partial execution of applications in the Cloud is a tradeoff between costs and efficiency. This paper addresses the demand for a consistent framework that allows for a mixture of on- and off-premise calculations by migrating only specific parts to a Cloud. It uses the concept of workflows to present how individual workflow tasks can be migrated to the Cloud whereas the remaining tasks are executed on-premise.
Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse zur Verifikation der Einhaltung von quantitativen Sicherheitsanforderungen.
(2012)
Spontaneous language has rarely been subjected to neuroimaging studies. This study therefore introduces a newly developed method for the analysis of linguistic phenomena observed in continuous language production during fMRI.
Most neuroimaging studies investigating language have so far focussed on single word or — to a smaller extent — sentence processing, mostly due to methodological considerations. Natural language production, however, is far more than the mere combination of words to larger units. Therefore, the present study aimed at relating brain activation to linguistic phenomena like word-finding difficulties or syntactic completeness in a continuous language fMRI paradigm. A picture description task with special constraints was used to provoke hesitation phenomena and speech errors. The transcribed speech sample was segmented into events of one second and each event was assigned to one category of a complex schema especially developed for this purpose. The main results were: conceptual planning engages bilateral activation of the precuneus. Successful lexical retrieval is accompanied – particularly in comparison to unsolved word-finding difficulties – by the left middle and superior temporal gyrus. Syntactic completeness is reflected in activation of the left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) (area 44). In sum, the method has proven to be useful for investigating the neural correlates of lexical and syntactic phenomena in an overt picture description task. This opens up new prospects for the analysis of spontaneous language production during fMRI.
In this article, we report on the heat-transfer resistance at interfaces as a novel, denaturation-based method to detect single-nucleotide polymorphisms in DNA. We observed that a molecular brush of double-stranded DNA grafted onto synthetic diamond surfaces does not notably affect the heat-transfer resistance at the solid-to-liquid interface. In contrast to this, molecular brushes of single-stranded DNA cause, surprisingly, a substantially higher heat-transfer resistance and behave like a thermally insulating layer. This effect can be utilized to identify ds-DNA melting temperatures via the switching from low- to high heat-transfer resistance. The melting temperatures identified with this method for different DNA duplexes (29 base pairs without and with built-in mutations) correlate nicely with data calculated by modeling. The method is fast, label-free (without the need for fluorescent or radioactive markers), allows for repetitive measurements, and can also be extended toward array formats. Reference measurements by confocal fluorescence microscopy and impedance spectroscopy confirm that the switching of heat-transfer resistance upon denaturation is indeed related to the thermal on-chip denaturation of DNA.
Cardiac MR (CMR) at ultrahigh (≥7.0 T) fields is regarded as one of the most challenging MRI applications. At 7.0 T image quality is not always exclusively defined by signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR). Detrimental effects bear the potential to spoil the signal-to-noise (SNR) and contrast-to-noise (CNR) benefits of cardiac MR (CMR) at 7.0 T. B₁⁺-inhomogeneities and signal voids represent the main challenges. Various pioneering coil concepts have been proposed to tackle these issues, enabling cardiac MRI at 7.0 T. This includes a trend towards an ever larger number of transmit and receive channels. This approach affords multi-dimensional B₁⁺ modulations to improve B₁⁺ shimming performance and to enhance RF efficiency. Also, parallel imaging benefits from a high number of receive channels enabling two-dimensional acceleration. Realizing the limitations of existing coil designs tailored for UHF CMR and recognizing the opportunities of a many element TX/RX channel architecture this work proposes a modular, two dimensional 32-channel transmit and receive array using loop elements and examines its efficacy for enhanced B¹+ homogeneity and improved parallel imaging performance.
Many applications in computational science and engineering require the computation of eigenvalues and vectors of dense symmetric or Hermitian matrices. For example, in DFT (density functional theory) calculations on modern supercomputers 10% to 30% of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of huge dense matrices have to be calculated. Therefore, performance and parallel scaling of the used eigensolvers is of upmost interest. In this article different routines of the linear algebra packages ScaLAPACK and Elemental for parallel solution of the symmetric eigenvalue problem are compared concerning their performance on the BlueGene/P supercomputer. Parameters for performance optimization are adjusted for the different data distribution methods used in the two libraries. It is found that for all test cases the new library Elemental which uses a two-dimensional element by element distribution of the matrices to the processors shows better performance than the old ScaLAPACK library which uses a block-cyclic distribution.
Determination of the frictional coefficient of the implant-antler interface : experimental approach
(2012)
The similar bone structure of reindeer antler to human bone permits studying the osseointegration of dental implants in the jawbone. As the friction is one of the major factors that have a significant influence on the initial stability of immediately loaded dental implants, it is essential to define the frictional coefficient of the implant-antler interface. In this study, the kinetic frictional forces at the implant-antler interface were measured experimentally using an optomechanical setup and a stepping motor controller under different axial loads and sliding velocities. The corresponding mean values of the static and kinetic frictional coefficients were within the range of 0.5–0.7 and 0.3–0.5, respectively. An increase in the frictional forces with increasing applied axial loads was registered. The measurements showed an evidence of a decrease in the magnitude of the frictional coefficient with increasing sliding velocity. The results of this study provide a considerable assessment to clarify the suitable frictional coefficient to be used in the finite element contact analysis of antler specimens.
Partikelmesstechnik
(2012)
Der Schutz von Produkten vor der Kontamination durch Partikel gilt als eine zentrale Aufgabe der Reinraumtechnik. Da es dabei um Kontaminationseffekte weit unterhalb der visuellen Wahrnehmbarkeit geht, braucht es leistungsfähige Verfahren, um die Messgröße „Partikelkontamination“ über den gesamten Bereich, den Anwender fordern, präzise zu bestimmen. Neben der Partikelhäufigkeit ist dabei die Größe der Partikel, die sowohl das Transportverhalten wie auch die mögliche Wirkung auf das Produkt beeinflusst, von entscheidender Bedeutung. Ferner kann es für die Ermittlung von Kontaminationsquellen von Interesse sein, die Form und die chemische Natur der Partikel zu bestimmen (z. B. textile Fasern, Metallabrieb, flüssige Tröpfchen). Die Partikelhäufigkeit wird üblicherweise als Konzentration, d. h. bezogen auf das analysierte Gasvolumen angegeben. Bei den in reinen Technologien üblichen niedrigen Konzentrationen dient als Häufigkeitsmaß die Partikelanzahlkonzentration, also die Partikelanzahl pro Volumeneinheit des Trägermediums.
Persistent infection with high-risk human papillomaviruses (hrHPV) can result in the formation of anogenital cancers. As hrHPV proteins E6 and E7 are required for cancer initiation and maintenance, they are ideal targets for immunotherapeutic interventions. Previously, we have described the development of DNA vaccines for the induction of HPV16 E6 and E7 specific T cell immunity. These vaccines consist of ‘gene-shuffled’ (SH) versions of HPV16 E6 and E7 that were fused to Tetanus Toxin Fragment C domain 1 (TTFC) and were named TTFC-E6SH and TTFC-E7SH. Gene-shuffling was performed to avoid the risk of inducing malignant transformation at the vaccination site. Here, we describe the preclinical safety evaluation of these candidate vaccines by analysis of their transforming capacity in vitro using established murine fibroblasts (NIH 3T3 cells) and primary human foreskin keratinocytes (HFKs). We demonstrate that neither ectopic expression of TTFC-E6SH and TTFC-E7SH alone or in combination enabled NIH 3T3 cells to form colonies in soft agar. In contrast, expression of HPV16 E6WT and E7WT alone or in combination resulted in effective transformation. Similarly, retroviral transduction of HFKs from three independent donors with both TTFC-E6SH and TTFC-E7SH alone or in combination did not show any signs of immortalization. In contrast, the combined expression of E6WT and E7WT induced immortalization in HFKs from all donors. Based on these results we consider it justified to proceed to clinical evaluation of DNA vaccines encoding TTFC-E6SH and TTFC-E7SH in patients with HPV16 associated (pre)malignancies.
Prioritization is an essential task within requirements engineering to cope with complexity and to establish focus properly. The 3rd Workshop on Requirements Prioritization for customer oriented Software Development (RePriCo’12) focused on requirements prioritization and adjacent themes in the context of customer oriented development of bespoke and standard software. Five submissions have been accepted for the proceedings and for presentation. The report summarizes and points out key findings.
Solar thermal concentrated power is an emerging technology that provides clean electricity for the growing energy market. To the solar thermal concentrated power plant systems belong the parabolic trough, the Fresnel collector, the solar dish, and the central receiver system.
For high-concentration solar collector systems, optical and thermal analysis is essential. There exist a number of measurement techniques and systems for the optical and thermal characterization of the efficiency of solar thermal concentrated systems.
For each system, structure, components, and specific characteristics types are described. The chapter presents additionally an outline for the calculation of system performance and operation and maintenance topics. One main focus is set to the models of components and their construction details as well as different types on the market. In the later part of this chapter, different criteria for the choice of technology are analyzed in detail.
Concentrating solar power
(2012)
Real-time and reliable monitoring of the biogas process is crucial for a stable and efficient operation of biogas production in order to avoid digester breakdowns. The concentration of dissolved hydrogen (H₂) represents one of the key parameters for biogas process control. In this work, a one-chip integrated combined amperometric/field-effect sensor for monitoring the dissolved H₂ concentration has been developed for biogas applications. The combination of two different transducer principles might allow a more accurate and reliable measurement of dissolved H₂ as an early warning indicator of digester failures. The feasibility of the approach has been demonstrated by simultaneous amperometric/field-effect measurements of dissolved H₂ concentrations in electrolyte solutions. Both, the amperometric and the field-effect transducer show a linear response behaviour in the H₂ concentration range from 0.1 to 3% (v/v) with a slope of 198.4 ± 13.7 nA/% (v/v) and 14.9 ± 0.5 mV/% (v/v), respectively.
Additive Manufacturing durch Aufschmelzen von Metallpulvern hat sich auf breiter Front als Herstellverfahren, auch für Endprodukte, etabliert. Besonders für die Variante des Selective Laser Melting (SLM) sind Anwendungen in der Zahntechnik bereits weit verbreitet und der Einsatz in sensitiven Branchen wie der Luftfahrt ist in greifbare Nähe gerückt. Deshalb werden auch vermehrt Anstrengungen unternommen, um bisher nicht verarbeitete Materialien zu qualifizieren. Dies sind vorzugsweise Nicht-Eisen- und Edelmetalle, die sowohl eine sehr hohe Reflektivität als auch eine sehr gute Wärmeleitfähigkeit aufweisen – beides Eigenschaften, die die Beherrschung des Laser-Schmelzprozesses erschweren und nur kleine Prozessfenster zulassen. Die Arbeitsgruppe SLM des Lehr- und Forschungsgebietes Hochleistungsverfahren der Fertigungstechnik hat sich unter der Randbedingung einer kleinen und mit geringer Laserleistung ausgestatteten SLM Maschine der Aufgabe gewidmet und am Beispiel von Silber die Parameterfelder für Einzelspuren und wenig komplexe Geometrien systematisch untersucht. Die Arbeiten wurden von FEM Simulationen begleitet und durch metallographische Untersuchungen verifiziert. Die Ergebnisse bilden die Grundlage zur schnellen Parameterfindung bei komplexen Geometrien und bei Veränderungen der Zusammensetzung, wie sie bei zukünftigen Legierungen zu erwarten sind. Die Ergebnisse werden exemplarisch auf unterschiedliche Geometrien angewandt und entsprechende Bauteile gezeigt.
Selective laser melting of metals: desktop machines open up new chances even for small companies
(2012)
Additive manufacturing (AM) of metal parts by using Selective Laser Melting (SLM) has become a powerful tool mostly in the area of automotive, aerospace engineering and others. Especially in the field of dentistry, jewelry and related branches that require individualized or even one-of-a-kind products, the direct digital manufacturing process opens up new ways of design and manufacturing. In these fields, mostly small and medium sized businesses (SME) are operating which do not have sufficient human and economic resources to invest in this technology. But to stay competitive, the application of AM can be regarded as a necessity. In this situation a new desktop machine (Realizer SLM 50) was introduced that cost about 1/3 of a shop floor SLM machine and promises small quality parts. To find out whether the machine really is an alternative for SMEs the University of Applied Science, Aachen, Germany, designed, build and optimized typical parts from the dentistry and the jewelry branches using CoCr and silver material, the latter being new with this application. The paper describes the SLM procedure and how to find and optimize the most important parameters. The test is accompanied by digital simulation in order to verify the build parameters and to plan future builds. The procedure is shown as well as the resulting parts made from CoCr and silver material.
If we think about applications for modern Power MOSFETs using trench technology, running them in linear mode may not be top of the priority list. Yet there are multiple uses for Trench Power MOSFETs in linear mode. In fact, even turning the device on and off in switching applications is a form of linear operation. Also, these components can be run in linear mode to protect the device against voltage surges. This article will illustrate the factors that need to be considered for linear operation and show how Trench Power MOSFETs are suited to it.
A variety of transition metals, e.g., copper, zinc, cadmium, lead, etc. are widely used in industry as components for wires, coatings, alloys, batteries, paints and so on. The inevitable presence of transition metals in industrial processes implies the ambition of developing a proper analytical technique for their adequate monitoring. Most of these elements, especially lead and cadmium, are acutely toxic for biological organisms. Quantitative determination of these metals at low activity levels in different environmental and industrial samples is therefore a vital task. A promising approach to achieve an at-side or on-line monitoring on a miniaturized and cost efficient way is the combination of a common potentiometric sensor array with heavy metal-sensitive thin-film materials, like chalcogenide glasses and polymeric materials, respectively.
Chelate stabilization of a titanium(IV)–salan alkoxide by ligand exchange with 2,6-pyridinedicarboxylic acid (dipic) resulted in heptacoordinate complex 3 which is not redox-active, stable on silica gel and has increased aqueous stability. 3 is highly toxic in HeLa S3 and Hep G2 and has enhanced antitumor efficacy in a mouse cervical-cancer model.
Vorwort
(2012)
Inkompressible Strömungen
(2012)
Im Beitrag wird zunächst das Verfahren eines dynamischen elektro-geometrischen Modells vorgestellt. Dieses arbeitet im Gegensatz zum klassischen Blitzkugel-Verfahren nicht mit konstanten Radien; vielmehr wird der Radius der Blitzkugel variiert. Dabei werden ausschließlich vorhandene und in internationalen Normen anerkannte Ergebnisse, blitzphysikalische Grundlagen und Untersuchungen verwendet, und auf deren Grundlage ein numerisches Verfahren erarbeitet. Mit dem dynamischen elektro-geometrischen Modell werden dann einige Beispiele des Schutzes mit Fangstangen, die gemäß dem klassischen Blitzkugel-Verfahren nach DIN EN 62305-3 für die Schutzklassen I – II – III – IV geplant sind, untersucht. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Einfangwirksamkeiten wesentlich höher sind als in der Normenreihe DIN EN 62305 selbst angegeben. Grund dafür ist die Tatsache, dass das Blitzkugel-Verfahren sehr konservativ aufgebaut ist und dem Planer von Blitzschutzsystemen nur die möglichen Stellen für einen Einschlag aufzeigt, ohne eine Bewertung der Einschlagshäufigkeit zu liefern. Andererseits bedeutet dies jedoch, dass man mit dem klassischen Blitzkugel-Verfahren stets auf der „sicheren Seite“ liegt.
Agil ist im Trend und immer mehr Unternehmen, die ihre Projekte bisher nach klassischen Prinzipien durchführten, denken über den Einsatz agiler Methoden nach. Doch selbst wenn die Organisation bereits beide Philosophien unterstützt, gilt für ein Projekt meist die klare Vorgabe: agil oder klassisch. Es gibt aber noch einen anderen Ansatz, mit diesen "unterschiedlichen Welten" umzugehen: Und zwar die beiden Philosophien innerhalb eines Projekts zu kombinieren. Wie dies in der Praxis aussehen und gelingen kann, zeigen Dr. Michael Kirchhof und Prof. Dr. Bodo Kraft in diesem Beitrag.
Realisation of a calorimetric gas sensor on polyimide foil for applications in aseptic food industry
(2012)
A calorimetric gas sensor is presented for the monitoring of vapour-phase H2O2 at elevated temperature during sterilisation processes in aseptic food industry. The sensor was built up on a flexible polyimide foil (thickness: 25 μm) that has been chosen due to its thermal stability and low thermal conductivity. The sensor set-up consists of two temperature-sensitive platinum thin-film resistances passivated by a layer of SU-8 photo resist and catalytically activated by manganese(IV) oxide. Instead of an active heating structure, the calorimetric sensor utilises the elevated temperature of the evaporated H2O2 aerosol. In an experimental test rig, the sensor has shown a sensitivity of 4.78 °C/(%, v/v) in a H2O2 concentration range of 0%, v/v to 8%, v/v. Furthermore, the sensor possesses the same, unchanged sensor signal even at varied medium temperatures between 210 °C and 270 °C of the gas stream. At flow rates of the gas stream from 8 m3/h to 12 m3/h, the sensor has shown only a slightly reduced sensitivity at a low flow rate of 8 m3/h. The sensor characterisation demonstrates the suitability of the calorimetric gas sensor for monitoring the efficiency of industrial sterilisation processes.
Characterisation of polymeric materials as passivation layer for calorimetric H2O2 gas sensors
(2012)
Calorimetric gas sensors for monitoring the H₂O₂ concentration at elevated temperatures in industrial sterilisation processes have been presented in previous works. These sensors are built up in form of a differential set-up of a catalytically active and passive temperature-sensitive structure. Although, various types of catalytically active dispersions have been studied, the passivation layer has to be established and therefore, chemically as well as physically characterised. In the present work, fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP), perfluoralkoxy (PFA) and epoxy-based SU-8 photoresist as temperature-stable polymeric materials have been investigated for sensor passivation in terms of their chemical inertness against H₂O₂, their hygroscopic properties as well as their morphology. The polymeric materials were deposited via spin-coating on the temperature-sensitive structure, wherein spin-coated FEP and PFA show slight agglomerates. However, they possess a low absorption of humidity due to their hydrophobic surface, whereas the SU-8 layer has a closed surface but shows a slightly higher absorption of water. All of them were inert against gaseous H₂O₂ during the characterisation in H₂O₂ atmosphere that demonstrates their suitability as passivation layer for calorimetric H₂O₂ gas sensors.
As part of a novel approach to automatic sewer inspection, this paper presents a robust algorithm for automatic flow line detection. A large image repository is obtained from about 50,000 m sewers to represent the high variability of real world sewer systems. Automatic image processing combines Canny edge detection, Hough transform for straight lines and cost minimization using Dijkstra's shortest path algorithm. Assuming that flow lines are mostly smoothly connected horizontal structures, piecewise flow line delineation is reduced to a process of selecting adjacent line candidates. Costs are derived from the gap between adjacent candidates and their reliability. A single parameter α enables simple control of the algorithm. The detected flow line may precisely follow the segmented edges (α = 0.0) or minimize gaps at joints (α = 1.0). Both, manual and ground truth-based analysis indicate that α = 0.8 is optimal and independent of the sewer's material. The algorithm forms an essential step to further automation of sewer inspection.
Auswahl der Herniennetze nach der “effektiven Porosität” - warum das Gewicht weniger wichtig ist
(2012)
Außerbilanzielle Korrekturen
(2012)
31P MR spectroscopic imaging of the human prostate provides information about phosphorylated metabolites that could be used for prostate cancer characterization. The sensitivity of a magnetic field strength of 7 T might enable 3D 31P MR spectroscopic imaging with relevant spatial resolution in a clinically acceptable measurement time. To this end, a 31P endorectal coil was developed and combined with an eight-channel 1H body-array coil to relate metabolic information to anatomical location. An extensive safety validation was performed to evaluate the specific absorption rate, the radiofrequency field distribution, and the temperature distribution of both coils. This validation consisted of detailed Finite Integration Technique simulations, confirmed by MR thermometry and Burn:x-wiley:07403194:media:MRM24175:tex2gif-stack-1 measurements in a phantom and in vivo temperature measurements. The safety studies demonstrated that the presence of the 31P endorectal coil had no influence on the specific absorption rate levels and temperature distribution of the external eight-channel 1H array coil. To stay within a 10 g averaged local specific absorption rate of 10 W/kg, a maximum time-averaged input power of 33 W for the 1H array coil was allowed. For transmitting with the 31P endorectal coil, our safety limit of less than 1°C temperature increase in vivo during a 15-min MR spectroscopic imaging experiment was reached at a time-averaged input power of 1.9 W. With this power setting, a second in vivo measurement was performed on a healthy volunteer. Using adiabatic excitation, 3D 31P MR spectroscopic imaging produced spectra from the entire prostate in 18 min with a spatial resolution of 4 cm3. The spectral resolution enabled the separate detection of phosphocholine, phosphoethanolamine, inorganic phosphate, and other metabolites that could play an important role in the characterization of prostate cancer.
Purpose: It was demonstrated previously that retinal pulse wave velocity (rPWV) as a measure of retinal arterial stiffness is increased in aged anamnestically healthy volunteers compared with young healthy subjects. Using novel methodology of rPWV assessment this finding was confirmed and investigated whether it might relate to the increased blood pressure usually accompanying the aging process, rather than to the aging itself.
Methods: A total of 12 young 25.5-year-old (24.0–28.8) [median(1st quartile–3rd quartile)] and 12 senior 68.5-year-old (63.8–71.8) anamnestically healthy volunteers; and 12 senior 63.0-year-old (60.8–65.0) validated healthy volunteers and 12 young 33.0-year-old (29.5–35.0) hypertensive patients were examined. Time-dependent alterations of vessel diameter were assessed by the Dynamic Vessel Analyzer in a retinal artery of each subject. The data were filtered and processed using mathematical signal analysis and rPWVs were calculated.
Results: rPWV amounted to 1200 (990-1470) RU (relative units)/s in the hypertensive group and to 1040 (700-2230) RU/s in anamnestically healthy seniors. These differed significantly from rPWVs in young healthy group (410 [280–500] RU/s) and in validated healthy seniors (400 [320–510] RU/s). rPWV associated with age and mean arterial pressure (MAP) in the pooled cohort excluded validated healthy seniors. In a regression model these associations remain when alternately adjusted for MAP and age. When including validated healthy seniors in the pooled cohort only association with MAP remains.
Conclusions: Both aging (with not excluded cardiovascular risk factors) and mild hypertension are associated with elevated rPWV. rPWV increases to a similar extent both in young mildly hypertensive subjects and in aged anamnestically healthy persons. Healthy aging is not associated with increased rPWV.