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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
20 years after the successful ground deployment test of a (20 m) 2 solar sail at DLR Cologne, and in the light of the upcoming U.S. NEAscout mission, we provide an overview of the progress made since in our mission and hardware design studies as well as the hardware built in the course of our solar sail technology development. We outline the most likely and most efficient routes to develop solar sails for useful missions in science and applications, based on our developed `now-term' and near-term hardware as well as the many practical and managerial lessons learned from the DLR-ESTEC Gossamer Roadmap. Mission types directly applicable to planetary defense include single and Multiple NEA Rendezvous ((M)NR) for precursor, monitoring and follow-up scenarios as well as sail-propelled head-on retrograde kinetic impactors (RKI) for mitigation. Other mission types such as the Displaced L1 (DL1) space weather advance warning and monitoring or Solar Polar Orbiter (SPO) types demonstrate the capability of near-term solar sails to achieve asteroid rendezvous in any kind of orbit, from Earth-coorbital to extremely inclined and even retrograde orbits. Some of these mission types such as SPO, (M)NR and RKI include separable payloads. For one-way access to the asteroid surface, nanolanders like MASCOT are an ideal match for solar sails in micro-spacecraft format, i.e. in launch configurations compatible with ESPA and ASAP secondary payload platforms. Larger landers similar to the JAXA-DLR study of a Jupiter Trojan asteroid lander for the OKEANOS mission can shuttle from the sail to the asteroids visited and enable multiple NEA sample-return missions. The high impact velocities and re-try capability achieved by the RKI mission type on a final orbit identical to the target asteroid's but retrograde to its motion enables small spacecraft size impactors to carry sufficient kinetic energy for deflection.
Small Spacecraft in Planetary Defence Related Applications–Capabilities, Constraints, Challenges
(2015)
In this paper we present an overview of the characteristics and peculiarities of small spacecraft missions related to planetary defence applications. We provide a brief overview of small spacecraft missions to small solar system bodies. On this background we present recent missions and selected projects and related studies at the German Aerospace Center, DLR, that contribute to planetary defence related activities. These range from Earth orbit technology demonstrators to active science missions in interplanetary space. We provide a summary of experience from recently flown missions with DLR participation as well as a number of studies. These include PHILAE, the lander recently arrived on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko aboard ESA’s ROSETTA comet rendezvous mission, and the Mobile Asteroid Surface Scout, MASCOT, now underway to near-Earth asteroid (162173) 1999 JU3 aboard the Japanese sample-return probe HAYABUSA-2. We introduce the differences between the conventional methods employed in the design, integration and testing of large spacecraft and the new approaches developed by small spacecraft projects. We expect that the practical experience that can be gained from projects on extremely
compressed timelines or with high-intensity operation phases on a newly explored small solar system body can contribute significantly to the study, preparation and realization of future planetary defence related missions. One is AIDA (Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment), a joint effort of ESA,JHU/APL, NASA, OCA and DLR, combining JHU/APL’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) and ESA’s AIM (Asteroid Impact Monitor) spacecraft in a mission towards
near-Eath binary asteroid (65803) Didymos.
We propose a simple parametric OSSD model that describes the variation of the sail film's optical coefficients with time, depending on the sail film's environmental history, i.e., the radiation dose. The primary intention of our model is not to describe the exact behavior of specific film-coating combinations in the real space environment, but to provide a more general parametric framework for describing the general optical degradation behavior of solar sails.
The recently discovered first high velocity hyperbolic objects passing through the Solar System, 1I/'Oumuamua and 2I/Borisov, have raised the question about near term missions to Interstellar Objects. In situ spacecraft exploration of these objects will allow the direct determination of both their structure and their chemical and isotopic composition, enabling an entirely new way of studying small bodies from outside our solar system. In this paper, we map various Interstellar Object classes to mission types, demonstrating that missions to a range of Interstellar Object classes are feasible, using existing or near-term technology. We describe flyby, rendezvous and sample return missions to interstellar objects, showing various ways to explore these bodies characterizing their surface, dynamics, structure and composition. Interstellar objects likely formed very far from the solar system in both time and space; their direct exploration will constrain their formation and history, situating them within the dynamical and chemical evolution of the Galaxy. These mission types also provide the opportunity to explore solar system bodies and perform measurements in the far outer solar system.