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This paper examines the positive and negative aspects of a range of interpretations of nearest-neighbours models. Measures-oriented and distributionoriented verification methods are applied to categorial, probabilistic and descriptive interpretations of nearest neighbours used operationally in avalanche forecasting in Scotland and Switzerland. The dependence of skill and accuracy measures on base rate is illustrated. The purpose of the forecast and the definition of events are important variables in determining the quality of the forecast. A discussion of the application of different interpretations in operational avalanche forecasting is presented.
Dynamics of Granular Material Avalanches and Numerical Approximations of Savage-Hutter Models
(2004)
When exploring glacier ice it is often necessary to take samples or implement sensors at a certain depth underneath the glacier surface. One way of doing this is by using heated melting probes. In their common form these devices experience a straight one-dimensional downwards motion and can be modeled by standard close-contact melting theory. A recently developed melting probe however, the IceMole, achieves maneuverability by simultaneously applying a surface temperature gradient to induce a change in melting direction and controlling the effective contact-force by means of an ice screw to stabilize its change in attitude. A modeling framework for forced curvilinear melting does not exist so far and will be the content of this paper. At first, we will extend the existing theory for quasi-stationary close-contact melting to curved trajectories. We do this by introducing a rotational mode. This additional unknown in the system implies yet the need for another model closure. Within this new framework we will focus on the effect of a variable contact-force as well as different surface temperature profiles. In order to solve for melting velocity and curvature of the melting path we present both an inverse solution strategy for the analytical model, and a more general finite element framework implemented into the open source software package ELMER. Model results are discussed and compared to experimental data conducted in laboratory tests.
Recent analysis of scientific data from Cassini and earth-based observations gave evidence for a global ocean under a surrounding solid ice shell on Saturn's moon Enceladus. Images of Enceladus' South Pole showed several fissures in the ice shell with plumes constantly exhausting frozen water particles, building up the E-Ring, one of the outer rings of Saturn. In this southern region of Enceladus, the ice shell is considered to be as thin as 2 km, about an order of magnitude thinner than on the rest of the moon. Under the ice shell, there is a global ocean consisting of liquid water. Scientists are discussing different approaches the possibilities of taking samples of water, i.e. by melting through the ice using a melting probe. FH Aachen UAS developed a prototype of maneuverable melting probe which can navigate through the ice that has already been tested successfully in a terrestrial environment. This means no atmosphere and or ambient pressure, low ice temperatures of around 100 to 150K (near the South Pole) and a very low gravity of 0,114 m/s^2 or 1100 μg. Two of these influencing measures are about to be investigated at FH Aachen UAS in 2017, low ice temperature and low ambient pressure below the triple point of water. Low gravity cannot be easily simulated inside a large experiment chamber, though. Numerical simulations of the melting process at RWTH Aachen however are showing a gravity dependence of melting behavior. Considering this aspect, VIPER provides a link between large-scale experimental simulations at FH Aachen UAS and numerical simulations at RWTH Aachen. To analyze the melting process, about 90 seconds of experiment time in reduced gravity and low ambient pressure is provided by the REXUS rocket. In this time frame, the melting speed and contact force between ice and probes are measured, as well as heating power and a two-dimensional array of ice temperatures. Additionally, visual and infrared cameras are used to observe the melting process.
The Saturnian moon Enceladus with its extensive water bodies underneath a thick ice sheet cover is a potential candidate for extraterrestrial life. Direct exploration of such extraterrestrial aquatic ecosystems requires advanced access and sampling technologies with a high level of autonomy. A new technological approach has been developed as part of the collaborative research project Enceladus Explorer (EnEx). The concept is based upon a minimally invasive melting probe called the IceMole. The force-regulated, heater-controlled IceMole is able to travel along a curved trajectory as well as upwards. Hence, it allows maneuvers which may be necessary for obstacle avoidance or target selection. Maneuverability, however, necessitates a sophisticated on-board navigation system capable of autonomous operations. The development of such a navigational system has been the focal part of the EnEx project. The original IceMole has been further developed to include relative positioning based on in-ice attitude determination, acoustic positioning, ultrasonic obstacle and target detection integrated through a high-level sensor fusion. This paper describes the EnEx technology and discusses implications for an actual extraterrestrial mission concept.
There is significant interest in sampling subglacial environments for geobiological studies, but they are difficult to access. Existing ice-drilling technologies make it cumbersome to maintain microbiologically clean access for sample acquisition and environmental stewardship of potentially fragile subglacial aquatic ecosystems. The IceMole is a maneuverable subsurface ice probe for clean in situ analysis and sampling of glacial ice and subglacial materials. The design is based on the novel concept of combining melting and mechanical propulsion. It can change melting direction by differential heating of the melting head and optional side-wall heaters. The first two prototypes were successfully tested between 2010 and 2012 on glaciers in Switzerland and Iceland. They demonstrated downward, horizontal and upward melting, as well as curve driving and dirt layer penetration. A more advanced probe is currently under development as part of the Enceladus Explorer (EnEx) project. It offers systems for obstacle avoidance, target detection, and navigation in ice. For the EnEx-IceMole, we will pay particular attention to clean protocols for the sampling of subglacial materials for biogeochemical analysis. We plan to use this probe for clean access into a unique subglacial aquatic environment at Blood Falls, Antarctica, with return of a subglacial brine sample.
Ice melting probes
(2023)
The exploration of icy environments in the solar system, such as the poles of Mars and the icy moons (a.k.a. ocean worlds), is a key aspect for understanding their astrobiological potential as well as for extraterrestrial resource inspection. On these worlds, ice melting probes are considered to be well suited for the robotic clean execution of such missions. In this chapter, we describe ice melting probes and their applications, the physics of ice melting and how the melting behavior can be modeled and simulated numerically, the challenges for ice melting, and the required key technologies to deal with those challenges. We also give an overview of existing ice melting probes and report some results and lessons learned from laboratory and field tests.