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This chapter describes three general strategies to master uncertainty in technical systems: robustness, flexibility and resilience. It builds on the previous chapters about methods to analyse and identify uncertainty and may rely on the availability of technologies for particular systems, such as active components. Robustness aims for the design of technical systems that are insensitive to anticipated uncertainties. Flexibility increases the ability of a system to work under different situations. Resilience extends this characteristic by requiring a given minimal functional performance, even after disturbances or failure of system components, and it may incorporate recovery. The three strategies are described and discussed in turn. Moreover, they are demonstrated on specific technical systems.
Water distribution systems are an essential supply infrastructure for cities. Given that climatic and demographic influences will pose further challenges for these infrastructures in the future, the resilience of water supply systems, i.e. their ability to withstand and recover from disruptions, has recently become a subject of research. To assess the resilience of a WDS, different graph-theoretical approaches exist. Next to general metrics characterizing the network topology, also hydraulic and technical restrictions have to be taken into account. In this work, the resilience of an exemplary water distribution network of a major German city is assessed, and a Mixed-Integer Program is presented which allows to assess the impact of capacity adaptations on its resilience.
In order to maximize the possible travel distance of battery electric vehicles with one battery charge, it is mandatory to adjust all components of the powertrain carefully to each other. While current vehicle designs mostly simplify the powertrain rigorously and use an electric motor in combination with a gearbox with only one fixed transmission ratio, the use of multi-gear systems has great potential. First, a multi-speed system is able to improve the overall energy efficiency. Secondly, it is able to reduce the maximum momentum and therefore to reduce the maximum current provided by the traction battery, which results in a longer battery lifetime. In this paper, we present a systematic way to generate multi-gear gearbox designs that—combined with a certain electric motor—lead to the most efficient fulfillment of predefined load scenarios and are at the same time robust to uncertainties in the load. Therefore, we model the electric motor and the gearbox within a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program, and optimize the efficiency of the mechanical parts of the powertrain. By combining this mathematical optimization program with an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, we are able to derive global-optimal gearbox designs for practically relevant momentum and speed requirements.
The transition within transportation towards battery electric vehicles can lead to a more sustainable future. To account for the development goal ‘climate action’ stated by the United Nations, it is mandatory, within the conceptual design phase, to derive energy-efficient system designs. One barrier is the uncertainty of the driving behaviour within the usage phase. This uncertainty is often addressed by using a stochastic synthesis process to derive representative driving cycles and by using cycle-based optimization. To deal with this uncertainty, a new approach based on a stochastic optimization program is presented. This leads to an optimization model that is solved with an exact solver. It is compared to a system design approach based on driving cycles and a genetic algorithm solver. Both approaches are applied to find efficient electric powertrains with fixed-speed and multi-speed transmissions. Hence, the similarities, differences and respective advantages of each optimization procedure are discussed.
The development of resilient technical systems is a challenging task, as the system should adapt automatically to unknown disturbances and component failures. To evaluate different approaches for deriving resilient technical system designs, we developed a modular test rig that is based on a pumping system. On the basis of this example
system, we present metrics to quantify resilience and an algorithmic approach to improve resilience. This approach enables the pumping system to automatically react on unknown disturbances and to reduce the impact of component failures. In this case, the system is able to automatically adapt its topology by activating additional valves. This enables the system to still reach a minimum performance, even in case of failures. Furthermore, timedependent disturbances are evaluated continuously, deviations from the original state are automatically detected and anticipated in the future. This allows to reduce the impact of future disturbances and leads to a more resilient
system behaviour.
Water suppliers are faced with the great challenge of achieving high-quality and, at the same time, low-cost water supply. In practice, the focus is set on the most beneficial maintenance measures and/or capacity adaptations of existing water distribution systems (WDS). Since climatic and demographic influences will pose further challenges in the future, the resilience enhancement of WDS, i.e. the enhancement of their capability to withstand and recover from disturbances, has been in particular focus recently. To assess the resilience of WDS, metrics based on graph theory have been proposed. In this study, a promising approach is applied to assess the resilience of the WDS for a district in a major German City. The conducted analysis provides insight into the process of actively influencing the
resilience of WDS
Given industrial applications, the costs for the operation and maintenance of a pump system typically far exceed its purchase price. For finding an optimal pump configuration which minimizes not only investment, but life-cycle costs, methods like Technical Operations Research which is based on Mixed-Integer Programming can be applied. However, during the planning phase, the designer is often faced with uncertain input data, e.g. future load demands can only be estimated. In this work, we deal with this uncertainty by developing a chance-constrained two-stage (CCTS) stochastic program. The design and operation of a booster station working under uncertain load demand are optimized to minimize total cost including purchase price, operation cost incurred by energy consumption and penalty cost resulting from water shortage. We find optimized system layouts using a sample average approximation (SAA) algorithm, and analyze the results for different risk levels of water shortage. By adjusting the risk level, the costs and performance range of the system can be balanced, and thus the
system’s resilience can be engineered
Highly competitive markets paired with tremendous production volumes demand particularly cost efficient products. The usage of common parts and modules across product families can potentially reduce production costs. Yet, increasing commonality typically results in overdesign of individual products. Multi domain virtual prototyping enables designers to evaluate costs and technical feasibility of different single product designs at reasonable computational effort in early design phases. However, savings by platform commonality are hard to quantify and require detailed knowledge of e.g. the production process and the supply chain. Therefore, we present and evaluate a multi-objective metamodel-based optimization algorithm which enables designers to explore the trade-off between high commonality and cost optimal design of single products.
The overall energy efficiency of ventilation systems can be improved by considering not only single components, but by considering as well the interplay between every part of the system. With the help of the method "TOR" ("Technical Operations Research"), which was developed at the Chair of Fluid Systems at TU Darmstadt, it is possible to improve the energy efficiency of the whole system by considering all possible design choices programmatically. We show the ability of this systematic design approach with a ventilation system for buildings as a use case example.
Based on a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP) we model the ventilation system. We use binary variables to model the selection of different pipe diameters. Multiple fans are model with the help of scaling laws. The whole system is represented by a graph, where the edges represent the pipes and fans and the nodes represents the source of air for cooling and the sinks, that have to be cooled. At the beginning, the human designer chooses a construction kit of different suitable fans and pipes of different diameters and different load cases. These boundary conditions define a variety of different possible system topologies. It is not possible to consider all topologies by hand. With the help of state of the art solvers, on the other side, it is possible to solve this MINLP.
Next to this, we also consider the effects of malfunctions in different components. Therefore, we show a first approach to measure the resilience of the shown example use case. Further, we compare the conventional approach with designs that are more resilient. These more resilient designs are derived by extending the before mentioned model with further constraints, that consider explicitly the resilience of the overall system. We show that it is possible to design resilient systems with this method already in the early design stage and compare the energy efficiency and resilience of these different system designs.
The energy-efficiency of technical systems can be improved by a systematic design approach. Technical Operations Research (TOR) employs methods known from Operations Research to find a global optimal layout and operation strategy of technical systems. We show the practical usage of this approach by the systematic design of a decentralized water supply system for skyscrapers. All possible network options and operation strategies are modeled by a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program. We present the optimal system found by our approach and highlight the energy savings compared to a conventional system design.
