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Hintergrund
Die Anwendung und das Verständnis von Statistik sind sehr wichtig für die biomedizinische Forschung und für die klinische Praxis. Dies gilt insbesondere auch zur Abschätzung der Möglichkeiten unterschiedlichster Diagnostik- und Therapieoptionen beim Glaukom. Die scheinbare Komplexität der Statistik, die zum Teil dem „gesunden Menschenverstand“ zu widersprechen scheint, zusammen mit der nur vorsichtigen Akzeptanz der Statistik bei vielen Medizinern können zu bewussten und unbewussten Manipulationen bei der Datendarstellung und -interpretation führen.
Ziel der Arbeit
Ziel ist die verständliche Darstellung einiger typischer Fehler in der medizinisch-statistischen Datenbehandlung.
Material und Methoden
Anhand hypothetischer Beispiele aus der Glaukomdiagnostik erfolgen die Darstellung der Wirkung eines hypotensiven Medikamentes sowie die Beurteilung der Ergebnisse eines diagnostischen Tests. Es werden die typischsten statistischen Einsatzbereiche und Irrtumsquellen ausführlich und verständlich analysiert
Ergebnisse
Mechanismen von Datenmanipulation und falscher Dateninterpretation werden aufgeklärt. Typische Irrtumsquellen bei der statistischen Auswertung und Datendarstellung werden dabei erläutert.
Schlussfolgerungen
Die erläuterten praktischen Beispiele zeigen die Notwendigkeit, die Grundlagen der Statistik zu verstehen und korrekt anwenden zu können. Fehlendes Grundlagenwissen und Halbwissen der medizinischen Statistik können zu folgenschweren Missverständnissen und falschen Entscheidungen in der medizinischen Forschung, aber auch in der klinischen Praxis führen.
In this paper, we will provide a feasible mission design for a multiple-rendezvous mission to Jupiter's Trojans. It is based on solar electric propulsion, as being currently used on the DAWN spacecraft, and other flight-proven technology. First, we have selected a set of mission objectives, the prime objective being the detection of water -especially subsurface water -to provide evidence for the Trojans' formation at large solar distances. Based on DAWN and other comparable missions, we have determined suitable payload instruments to achieve these objectives. Afterwards, we have designed a spacecraft that is able to carry the selected payload to the Trojan region and rendezvous successively with three target bodies within a maximum mission duration of 15 years. Accurate low-thrust trajectories have been obtained with a global low-thrust trajectory optimization program (InTrance). During the transfer from Earth to the first target, the spacecraft is propelled by two RIT-22 ion engines from EADS Astrium, whereas a single RIT-15 is used for transfers within the Trojan region to reduce the required power. For power generation, the spacecraft uses a multi-junction solar array that is supported by concentrators. To achieve moderate mission costs, we have restricted the launch mass to a maximum of 1600 kg, the maximum interplanetary injection capability of a Soyuz/Fregat launcher. Our final layout has a mass of 1400 kg, yielding a margin of about 14%. Nestor (a member of the L4-population) was determined as the first mission target. It can be reached within 4.6 years from launch. The fuel mass ratio for this transfer is about 35%. The stay time at Nestor is 1.2 years. Eurymedon was selected as the second target (transfer time 3.5 years, stay time 3.0 years) and Irus as the third target (transfer time 2.2 years). The transfers within the Trojan L4-population can be accomplished with fuel mass ratios of about 3% for each trajectory leg. Including the stay times in orbit around the targets, the mission can be accomplished within a total duration of about 14.5 years. According to our mission analysis, it is also feasible to fly to the L5-population with similar flight times. It has to be noted that -for a first analysis -we have taken only the named targets into account. Allowing also rendezvous with unnamed objects will very likely decrease the mission duration. Based on a scaling of DAWN's mission costs (due to comparable scientific instruments and mission objectives), and taking into account the longer mission duration and the potential re-use of already developed technology, we have estimated that these three rendezvous can be accomplished with a budget of about 250 Million Euros, i.e. about 25% of ROSETTA's budget.