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Market abstraction of energy markets and policies - application in an agent-based modeling toolbox
(2023)
In light of emerging challenges in energy systems, markets are prone to changing dynamics and market design. Simulation models are commonly used to understand the changing dynamics of future electricity markets. However, existing market models were often created with specific use cases in mind, which limits their flexibility and usability. This can impose challenges for using a single model to compare different market designs. This paper introduces a new method of defining market designs for energy market simulations. The proposed concept makes it easy to incorporate different market designs into electricity market models by using relevant parameters derived from analyzing existing simulation tools, morphological categorization and ontologies. These parameters are then used to derive a market abstraction and integrate it into an agent-based simulation framework, allowing for a unified analysis of diverse market designs. Furthermore, we showcase the usability of integrating new types of long-term contracts and over-the-counter trading. To validate this approach, two case studies are demonstrated: a pay-as-clear market and a pay-as-bid long-term market. These examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.
Background
Hip fractures are a common and costly health problem, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality, as well as high costs for healthcare systems, especially for the elderly. Implementing surgical preventive strategies has the potential to improve the quality of life and reduce the burden on healthcare resources, particularly in the long term. However, there are currently limited guidelines for standardizing hip fracture prophylaxis practices.
Methods
This study used a cost-effectiveness analysis with a finite-state Markov model and cohort simulation to evaluate the primary and secondary surgical prevention of hip fractures in the elderly. Patients aged 60 to 90 years were simulated in two different models (A and B) to assess prevention at different levels. Model A assumed prophylaxis was performed during the fracture operation on the contralateral side, while Model B included individuals with high fracture risk factors. Costs were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and transition probabilities and health state utilities were derived from available literature. The baseline assumption was a 10% reduction in fracture risk after prophylaxis. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the reliability and variability of the results.
Results
With a 10% fracture risk reduction, model A costs between $8,850 and $46,940 per quality-adjusted life-year ($/QALY). Additionally, it proved most cost-effective in the age range between 61 and 81 years. The sensitivity analysis established that a reduction of ≥ 2.8% is needed for prophylaxis to be definitely cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness at the secondary prevention level was most sensitive to the cost of the contralateral side’s prophylaxis, the patient’s age, and fracture treatment cost. For high-risk patients with no fracture history, the cost-effectiveness of a preventive strategy depends on their risk profile. In the baseline analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at the primary prevention level varied between $11,000/QALY and $74,000/QALY, which is below the defined willingness to pay threshold.
Conclusion
Due to the high cost of hip fracture treatment and its increased morbidity, surgical prophylaxis strategies have demonstrated that they can significantly relieve the healthcare system. Various key assumptions facilitated the modeling, allowing for adequate room for uncertainty. Further research is needed to evaluate health-state-associated risks.
Background
Post-COVID-19 syndrome (PCS) is a lingering disease with ongoing symptoms such as fatigue and cognitive impairment resulting in a high impact on the daily life of patients. Understanding the pathophysiology of PCS is a public health priority, as it still poses a diagnostic and treatment challenge for physicians.
Methods
In this prospective observational cohort study, we analyzed the retinal microcirculation using Retinal Vessel Analysis (RVA) in a cohort of patients with PCS and compared it to an age- and gender-matched healthy cohort (n = 41, matched out of n = 204).
Measurements and main results
PCS patients exhibit persistent endothelial dysfunction (ED), as indicated by significantly lower venular flicker-induced dilation (vFID; 3.42% ± 1.77% vs. 4.64% ± 2.59%; p = 0.02), narrower central retinal artery equivalent (CRAE; 178.1 [167.5–190.2] vs. 189.1 [179.4–197.2], p = 0.01) and lower arteriolar-venular ratio (AVR; (0.84 [0.8–0.9] vs. 0.88 [0.8–0.9], p = 0.007). When combining AVR and vFID, predicted scores reached good ability to discriminate groups (area under the curve: 0.75). Higher PCS severity scores correlated with lower AVR (R = − 0.37 p = 0.017). The association of microvascular changes with PCS severity were amplified in PCS patients exhibiting higher levels of inflammatory parameters.
Conclusion
Our results demonstrate that prolonged endothelial dysfunction is a hallmark of PCS, and impairments of the microcirculation seem to explain ongoing symptoms in patients. As potential therapies for PCS emerge, RVA parameters may become relevant as clinical biomarkers for diagnosis and therapy management.
We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.
Based on the European Space Agency (ESA) Science in Space Environment (SciSpacE) community White Paper “Human Physiology – Musculoskeletal system”, this perspective highlights unmet needs and suggests new avenues for future studies in musculoskeletal research to enable crewed exploration missions. The musculoskeletal system is essential for sustaining physical function and energy metabolism, and the maintenance of health during exploration missions, and consequently mission success, will be tightly linked to musculoskeletal function. Data collection from current space missions from pre-, during-, and post-flight periods would provide important information to understand and ultimately offset musculoskeletal alterations during long-term spaceflight. In addition, understanding the kinetics of the different components of the musculoskeletal system in parallel with a detailed description of the molecular mechanisms driving these alterations appears to be the best approach to address potential musculoskeletal problems that future exploratory-mission crew will face. These research efforts should be accompanied by technical advances in molecular and phenotypic monitoring tools to provide in-flight real-time feedback.
Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision aid-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.
In this paper, we provide an analytical study of the transmission eigenvalue problem with two conductivity parameters. We will assume that the underlying physical model is given by the scattering of a plane wave for an isotropic scatterer. In previous studies, this eigenvalue problem was analyzed with one conductive boundary parameter whereas we will consider the case of two parameters. We prove the existence and discreteness of the transmission eigenvalues as well as study the dependence on the physical parameters. We are able to prove monotonicity of the first transmission eigenvalue with respect to the parameters and consider the limiting procedure as the second boundary parameter vanishes. Lastly, we provide extensive numerical experiments to validate the theoretical work.
In this work, the bioabsorbable materials, namely fibroin, polylactide acid (PLA), magnesium and magnesium oxide are investigated for their application as transient, resistive temperature detectors (RTD). For this purpose, a thin-film magnesium-based meander-like electrode is deposited onto a flexible, bioabsorbable substrate (fibroin or PLA) and encapsulated (passivated) by additional magnesium oxide layers on top and below the magnesium-based electrode. The morphology of different layered RTDs is analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. The sensor performance and lifetime of the RTD is characterized both under ambient atmospheric conditions between 30°C and 43°C, and wet tissue-like conditions with a constant temperature regime of 37°C. The latter triggers the degradation process of the magnesium-based layers. The 3-layers RTDs on a PLA substrate could achieve a lifetime of 8.5 h. These sensors also show the best sensor performance under ambient atmospheric conditions with a mean sensitivity of 0.48 Ω/°C ± 0.01 Ω/°C.