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An increasing number of studies have reported on forest declines and vegetation shifts triggered by drought. In the Swiss Rhone valley (Valais), one of the driest inner-Alpine regions, the species composition in low elevation forests is changing: The sub-boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) dominating the dry forests is showing high mortality rates. Concurrently the sub-Mediterranean pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) has locally increased in abundance. However, it remains unclear whether this local change in species composition is part of a larger-scale vegetation shift. To study variability in mortality and regeneration in these dry forests we analysed data from the Swiss national forest inventory (NFI) on a regular grid between 1983 and 2003, and combined it with annual mortality data from a monitoring site. Pine mortality was found to be highest at low elevation (below 1000 m a.s.l.). Annual variation in pine mortality was correlated with a drought index computed for the summer months prior to observed tree death. A generalized linear mixed-effects model indicated for the NFI data increased pine mortality on dryer sites with high stand competition, particularly for small-diameter trees. Pine regeneration was low in comparison to its occurrence in the overstorey, whereas oak regeneration was comparably abundant. Although both species regenerated well at dry sites, pine regeneration was favoured at cooler sites at higher altitude and oak regeneration was more frequent at warmer sites, indicating a higher adaptation potential of oaks under future warming. Our results thus suggest that an extended shift in species composition is actually occurring in the pine forests in the Valais. The main driving factors are found to be climatic variability, particularly drought, and variability in stand structure and topography. Thus, pine forests at low elevations are developing into oak forests with unknown consequences for these ecosystems and their goods and services.
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Vorwort
(2012)
Auch mit der jüngsten Finanzkrise hat die Konsumkultur nichts von ihrer Bedeutung als massenkulturelles Phänomen eingebüßt. Im Gegenteil: Das aktuelle Krisenbewusstsein sucht Halt im Konsum, der seinen Verfechtern noch immer als Modell demokratischer Teilhabe an gesellschaftlicher Produktion gilt. Zugleich ist die Konsumkritik der 1960er Jahre in Richtung eines intelligenten und nachhaltigen Konsums weitergeführt worden, und selbstbewusste Konsumenten treten nun als emanzipierte »Prosumer« und Mitakteure des Marktes auf. Das Buch entwickelt aus Sicht von Design, Kunst, Soziologie, Marketing und Medien neue Perspektiven auf das Phänomen Konsum.
Visual Virology
(2012)
Upper and lower bound theorems of limit analyses have been presented in part I of the paper. Part II starts with the finite element discretization of these theorems and demonstrates how both can be combined in a primal–dual optimization problem. This recently proposed numerical method is used to guide the development of a new class of closed-form limit loads for circumferential defects, which show that only large defects contribute to plastic collapse with a rapid loss of strength with increasing crack sizes. The formulae are compared with primal–dual FEM limit analyses and with burst tests. Even closer predictions are obtained with iterative limit load solutions for the von Mises yield function and for the Tresca yield function. Pressure loading of the faces of interior cracks in thick pipes reduces the collapse load of circumferential defects more than for axial flaws. Axial defects have been treated in part I of the paper.