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Rare event simulation to optimise maintenance intervals of safety critical redundant subsystems
(2018)
In energy economy forecasts of different time series are rudimentary. In this study, a prediction for the German day-ahead spot market is created with Apache Spark and R. It is just an example for many different applications in virtual power plant environments. Other examples of use as intraday price processes, load processes of machines or electric vehicles, real time energy loads of photovoltaic systems and many more time series need to be analysed and predicted.
This work gives a short introduction into the project where this study is settled. It describes the time series methods that are used in energy industry for forecasts shortly. As programming technique Apache Spark, which is a strong cluster computing technology, is utilised. Today, single time series can be predicted. The focus of this work is on developing a method to parallel forecasting, to process multiple time series simultaneously with R and Apache Spark.
To increase pressure to supply all floors of high buildings with water, booster stations, normally consisting of several parallel pumps in the basement, are used. In this work, we demonstrate the potential of a decentralized pump topology regarding energy savings in water supply systems of skyscrapers. We present an approach, based on Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming, that allows to choose an optimal network topology and optimal pumps from a predefined construction kit comprising different pump types. Using domain-specific scaling laws and Latin Hypercube Sampling, we generate different input sets of pump types and compare their impact on the efficiency and cost of the total system design. As a realistic application example, we consider a hotel building with 325 rooms, 12 floors and up to four pressure zones.
The overall energy efficiency of ventilation systems can be improved by considering not only single components, but by considering as well the interplay between every part of the system. With the help of the method "TOR" ("Technical Operations Research"), which was developed at the Chair of Fluid Systems at TU Darmstadt, it is possible to improve the energy efficiency of the whole system by considering all possible design choices programmatically. We show the ability of this systematic design approach with a ventilation system for buildings as a use case example.
Based on a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Program (MINLP) we model the ventilation system. We use binary variables to model the selection of different pipe diameters. Multiple fans are model with the help of scaling laws. The whole system is represented by a graph, where the edges represent the pipes and fans and the nodes represents the source of air for cooling and the sinks, that have to be cooled. At the beginning, the human designer chooses a construction kit of different suitable fans and pipes of different diameters and different load cases. These boundary conditions define a variety of different possible system topologies. It is not possible to consider all topologies by hand. With the help of state of the art solvers, on the other side, it is possible to solve this MINLP.
Next to this, we also consider the effects of malfunctions in different components. Therefore, we show a first approach to measure the resilience of the shown example use case. Further, we compare the conventional approach with designs that are more resilient. These more resilient designs are derived by extending the before mentioned model with further constraints, that consider explicitly the resilience of the overall system. We show that it is possible to design resilient systems with this method already in the early design stage and compare the energy efficiency and resilience of these different system designs.
The UN sets the goal to ensure access to water and sanitation for all people by 2030. To address this goal, we present a multidisciplinary approach for designing water supply networks for slums in large cities by applying mathematical optimization. The problem is modeled as a mixed-integer linear problem (MILP) aiming to find a network describing the optimal supply infrastructure. To illustrate the approach, we apply it on a small slum cluster in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The continuing growth of scientific publications raises the question how research processes can be digitalized and thus realized more productively. Especially in information technology fields, research practice is characterized by a rapidly growing volume of publications. For the search process various information systems exist. However, the analysis of the published content is still a highly manual task. Therefore, we propose a text analytics system that allows a fully digitalized analysis of literature sources. We have realized a prototype by using EBSCO Discovery Service in combination with IBM Watson Explorer and demonstrated the results in real-life research projects. Potential addressees are research institutions, consulting firms, and decision-makers in politics and business practice.