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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
The paper presents the derivation of a new equivalent skin friction coefficient for estimating the parasitic drag of short-to-medium range fixed-wing unmanned aircraft. The new coefficient is derived from an aerodynamic analysis of ten different unmanned aircraft used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and search and rescue missions. The aircraft is simulated using a validated unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes approach. The UAV’s parasitic drag is significantly influenced by the presence of miscellaneous components like fixed landing gears or electro-optical sensor turrets. These components are responsible for almost half of an unmanned aircraft’s total parasitic drag. The new equivalent skin friction coefficient accounts for these effects and is significantly higher compared to other aircraft categories. It is used to initially size an unmanned aircraft for a typical reconnaissance mission. The improved parasitic drag estimation yields a much heavier unmanned aircraft when compared to the sizing results using available drag data of manned aircraft.
Background:
Additional stabilization of the “comma sign” in anterosuperior rotator cuff repair has been proposed to provide biomechanical benefits regarding stability of the repair.
Purpose:
This in vitro investigation aimed to investigate the influence of a comma sign–directed reconstruction technique for anterosuperior rotator cuff tears on the primary stability of the subscapularis tendon repair.
Study Design:
Controlled laboratory study.
Methods:
A total of 18 fresh-frozen cadaveric shoulders were used in this study. Anterosuperior rotator cuff tears (complete full-thickness tear of the supraspinatus and subscapularis tendons) were created, and supraspinatus repair was performed with a standard suture bridge technique. The subscapularis was repaired with either a (1) single-row or (2) comma sign technique. A high-resolution 3D camera system was used to analyze 3-mm and 5-mm gap formation at the subscapularis tendon-bone interface upon incremental cyclic loading. Moreover, the ultimate failure load of the repair was recorded. A Mann-Whitney test was used to assess significant differences between the 2 groups.
Results:
The comma sign repair withstood significantly more loading cycles than the single-row repair until 3-mm and 5-mm gap formation occurred (P≤ .047). The ultimate failure load did not reveal any significant differences when the 2 techniques were compared (P = .596).
Conclusion:
The results of this study show that additional stabilization of the comma sign enhanced the primary stability of subscapularis tendon repair in anterosuperior rotator cuff tears. Although this stabilization did not seem to influence the ultimate failure load, it effectively decreased the micromotion at the tendon-bone interface during cyclic loading.
Clinical Relevance:
The proposed technique for stabilization of the comma sign has shown superior biomechanical properties in comparison with a single-row repair and might thus improve tendon healing. Further clinical research will be necessary to determine its influence on the functional outcome.
This study focuses on thermoelectric elements (TEE) as an alternative for room temperature control. TEE are semi-conductor devices that can provide heating and cooling via a heat pump effect without direct noise emissions and no refrigerant use. An efficiency evaluation of the optimal operating mode is carried out for different numbers of TEE, ambient temperatures, and heating loads. The influence of an additional heat recovery unit on system efficiency and an unevenly distributed heating demand are examined. The results show that TEE can provide heat at a coefficient of performance (COP) greater than one especially for small heating demands and high ambient temperatures. The efficiency increases with the number of elements in the system and is subject to economies of scale. The best COP exceeds six at optimal operating conditions. An additional heat recovery unit proves beneficial for low ambient temperatures and systems with few TEE. It makes COPs above one possible at ambient temperatures below 0 ∘C. The effect increases efficiency by maximal 0.81 (from 1.90 to 2.71) at ambient temperature 5 K below room temperature and heating demand Q˙h=100W but is subject to diseconomies of scale. Thermoelectric technology is a valuable option for electricity-based heat supply and can provide cooling and ventilation functions. A careful system design as well as an additional heat recovery unit significantly benefits the performance. This makes TEE superior to direct current heating systems and competitive to heat pumps for small scale applications with focus on avoiding noise and harmful refrigerants.
The planned coal phase-out in Germany by 2038 will lead to the dismantling of power plants with a total capacity of approx. 30 GW. A possible further use of these assets is the conversion of the power plants to thermal storage power plants; the use of these power plants on the day-ahead market is considerably limited by their technical parameters. In this paper, the influence of the technical boundary conditions on the operating times of these storage facilities is presented. For this purpose, the storage power plants were described as an MILP problem and two price curves, one from 2015 with a relatively low renewable penetration (33 %) and one from 2020 with a high renewable energy penetration (51 %) are compared. The operating times were examined as a function of the technical parameters and the critical influencing factors were investigated. The thermal storage power plant operation duration and the energy shifted with the price curve of 2020
increases by more than 25 % compared to 2015.
This paper introduces a new maritime search and rescue system based on S-band illumination harmonic radar (HR). Passive and active tags have been developed and tested while attached to life jackets and a small boat. In this demonstration test carried out on the Baltic Sea, the system was able to detect and range the active tags up to a distance of 5800 m using an illumination signal transmit-power of 100 W. Special attention is given to the development, performance, and conceptual differences between passive and active tags used in the system. Guidelines for achieving a high HR dynamic range, including a system components description, are given and a comparison with other HR systems is performed. System integration with a commercial maritime X-band navigation radar is shown to demonstrate a solution for rapid search and rescue response and quick localization.
We consider a binary multivariate regression model where the conditional expectation of a binary variable given a higher-dimensional input variable belongs to a parametric family. Based on this, we introduce a model-based bootstrap (MBB) for higher-dimensional input variables. This test can be used to check whether a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations belongs to such a parametric family. The approach is based on the empirical residual process introduced by Stute (Ann Statist 25:613–641, 1997). In contrast to Stute and Zhu’s approach (2002) Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), a transformation is not required. Thus, any problems associated with non-parametric regression estimation are avoided. As a result, the MBB method is much easier for users to implement. To illustrate the power of the MBB based tests, a small simulation study is performed. Compared to the approach of Stute & Zhu (Scandinavian J Statist 29:535–545, 2002), the simulations indicate a slightly improved power of the MBB based method. Finally, both methods are applied to a real data set.