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We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
Die IMechE Railway Challenge wird jährlich in Stapleford, Großbritannien ausgetragen. Im Rahmen der Challenge entwickeln und bauen Studierende eine Lokomotive und vergleichen sich in verschiedenen Disziplinen, darunter eine automatisierte Zielbremsung, optimale Energierückgewinnung beim Bremsen und minimale Geräuschemissionen. Neben diesen und weiteren technischen Wettbewerbsdisziplinen treten die Fahrzeuge und die Teams auch in nicht-technischen Disziplinen wie einer Business Case Challenge an.
The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.
Based on the European Space Agency (ESA) Science in Space Environment (SciSpacE) community White Paper “Human Physiology – Musculoskeletal system”, this perspective highlights unmet needs and suggests new avenues for future studies in musculoskeletal research to enable crewed exploration missions. The musculoskeletal system is essential for sustaining physical function and energy metabolism, and the maintenance of health during exploration missions, and consequently mission success, will be tightly linked to musculoskeletal function. Data collection from current space missions from pre-, during-, and post-flight periods would provide important information to understand and ultimately offset musculoskeletal alterations during long-term spaceflight. In addition, understanding the kinetics of the different components of the musculoskeletal system in parallel with a detailed description of the molecular mechanisms driving these alterations appears to be the best approach to address potential musculoskeletal problems that future exploratory-mission crew will face. These research efforts should be accompanied by technical advances in molecular and phenotypic monitoring tools to provide in-flight real-time feedback.
Die Auswahl der passenden Geschäftsprozesse für eine Automatisierung mittels Robotic Process Automation (RPA) ist für den Erfolg von RPA-Projekten entscheidend. Das vorliegende Kapitel liefert dafür Selektionskriterien, die aus einer qualitativen Studie mit elf interviewten RPA-Experten aus dem Versicherungsumfeld resultieren. Das Ergebnis umfasst eine gewichtete Liste von sieben Dimensionen und 51 Prozesskriterien, welche die Automatisierung mit Softwarerobotern begünstigen beziehungsweise deren Nichterfüllung eine Umsetzung erschweren oder sogar verhindern. Die drei wichtigsten Kriterien zur Auswahl von Geschäftsprozessen für die Automatisierung mittels RPA umfassen die Entlastung der an dem Prozess mitwirkenden Mitarbeiter (Arbeitnehmerentlastung), die Ausführbarkeit des Prozesses mittels Regeln (Regelbasierte Prozessteuerung) sowie ein positiver Kosten-Nutzen-Vergleich. Auf diesen Ergebnissen aufbauend wird ein Vergleich mit den bereits bekannten Selektionskriterien aus der Literatur erstellt und diskutiert. Praktiker können die Ergebnisse verwenden, um eine systematische Auswahl von RPA-relevanten Prozessen vorzunehmen. Aus wissenschaftlicher Perspektive stellen die Ergebnisse eine Grundlage zur Erklärung des Erfolgs und Misserfolgs von RPA-Projekten dar.
Software development projects often fail because of insufficient code quality. It is now well documented that the task of testing software, for example, is perceived as uninteresting and rather boring, leading to poor software quality and major challenges to software development companies. One promising approach to increase the motivation for considering software quality is the use of gamification. Initial research works already investigated the effects of gamification on software developers and come to promising. Nevertheless, a lack of results from field experiments exists, which motivates the chapter at hand. By conducting a gamification experiment with five student software projects and by interviewing the project members, the chapter provides insights into the changing programming behavior of information systems students when confronted with a leaderboard. The results reveal a motivational effect as well as a reduction of code smells.
Obstacle avoidance is critical for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) operating autonomously. Obstacle avoidance algorithms either rely on global environment data or local sensor data. Local path planners react to unforeseen objects and plan purely on local sensor information. Similarly, animals need to find feasible paths based on local information about their surroundings. Therefore, their behavior is a valuable source of inspiration for path planning. Bumblebees tend to fly vertically over far-away obstacles and horizontally around close ones, implying two zones for different flight strategies depending on the distance to obstacles. This work enhances the local path planner 3DVFH* with this bio-inspired strategy. The algorithm alters the goal-driven function of the 3DVFH* to climb-preferring if obstacles are far away. Prior experiments with bumblebees led to two definitions of flight zone limits depending on the distance to obstacles, leading to two algorithm variants. Both variants reduce the probability of not reaching the goal of a 3DVFH* implementation in Matlab/Simulink. The best variant, 3DVFH*b-b, reduces this probability from 70.7 to 18.6% in city-like worlds using a strong vertical evasion strategy. Energy consumption is higher, and flight paths are longer compared to the algorithm version with pronounced horizontal evasion tendency. A parameter study analyzes the effect of different weighting factors in the cost function. The best parameter combination shows a failure probability of 6.9% in city-like worlds and reduces energy consumption by 28%. Our findings demonstrate the potential of bio-inspired approaches for improving the performance of local path planning algorithms for UAV.
The aerodynamic performance of propellers strongly depends on their geometry and, consequently, on aeroelastic deformations. Knowledge of the extent of the impact is crucial for overall aircraft performance. An integrated simulation environment for steady aeroelastic propeller simulations is presented. The simulation environment is applied to determine the impact of elastic deformations on the aerodynamic propeller performance. The aerodynamic module includes a blade element momentum approach to calculate aerodynamic loads. The structural module is based on finite beam elements, according to Timoshenko theory, including moderate deflections. Several fixed-pitch propellers with thin-walled cross sections made of both isotropic and non-isotropic materials are investigated. The essential parameters are varied: diameter, disc loading, sweep, material, rotational, and flight velocity. The relative change of thrust between rigid and elastic blades quantifies the impact of propeller elasticity. Swept propellers of large diameters or low disc loadings can decrease the thrust significantly. High flight velocities and low material stiffness amplify this tendency. Performance calculations without consideration of propeller elasticity can lead to decreased efficiency. To avoid cost- and time-intense redesigns, propeller elasticity should be considered for swept planforms and low disc loadings.