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Near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 99942 Apophis provides a typical example for the evolution of asteroid orbits that lead to Earth-impacts after a close Earth-encounter that results in a resonant return. Apophis will have a close Earth-encounter in 2029 with potential very close subsequent Earth-encounters (or even an impact) in 2036 or later, depending on whether it passes through one of several less than 1 km-sized gravitational keyholes during its 2029-encounter. A pre-2029 kinetic impact is a very favorable option to nudge the asteroid out of a keyhole. The highest impact velocity and thus deflection can be achieved from a trajectory that is retrograde to Apophis orbit. With a chemical or electric propulsion system, however, many gravity assists and thus a long time is required to achieve this. We show in this paper that the solar sail might be the better propulsion system for such a mission: a solar sail Kinetic Energy Impactor (KEI) spacecraft could impact Apophis from a retrograde trajectory with a very high relative velocity (75-80 km/s) during one of its perihelion passages. The spacecraft consists of a 160 m × 160 m, 168 kg solar sail assembly and a 150 kg impactor. Although conventional spacecraft can also achieve the required minimum deflection of 1 km for this approx. 320 m-sized object from a prograde trajectory, our solar sail KEI concept also allows the deflection of larger objects. For a launch in 2020, we also show that, even after Apophis has flown through one of the gravitational keyholes in 2029, the solar sail KEI concept is still feasible to prevent Apophis from impacting the Earth, but many KEIs would be required for consecutive impacts to increase the total Earth-miss distance to a safe value
A procedure for the evaluation of the failure probability of elastic-plastic thin shell structures is presented. The procedure involves a deterministic limit and shakedown analysis for each probabilistic iteration which is based on the kinematical approach and the use the exact Ilyushin yield surface. Based on a direct definition of the limit state function, the non-linear problems may be efficiently solved by using the First and Second Order Reliabiblity Methods (Form/SORM). This direct approach reduces considerably the necessary knowledge of uncertain technological input data, computing costs and the numerical error. In: Computational plasticity / ed. by Eugenio Onate. Dordrecht: Springer 2007. VII, 265 S. (Computational Methods in Applied Sciences ; 7) (COMPLAS IX. Part 1 . International Center for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE)). ISBN 978-1-402-06576-7 S. 186-189
Proceedings of the International Conference on Material Theory and Nonlinear Dynamics. MatDyn. Hanoi, Vietnam, Sept. 24-26, 2007, 8 p. In this paper, a method is introduced to determine the limit load of general shells using the finite element method. The method is based on an upper bound limit and shakedown analysis with elastic-perfectly plastic material model. A non-linear constrained optimisation problem is solved by using Newton’s method in conjunction with a penalty method and the Lagrangean dual method. Numerical investigation of a pipe bend subjected to bending moments proves the effectiveness of the algorithm.