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Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Simulating the electromagnetic‐thermal treatment of thin aluminium layers for adhesion improvement
(2015)
A composite layer material used in packaging industry is made from joining layers of different materials using an adhesive. An important processing step in the production of aluminium-containing composites is the surface treatment and consequent coating of adhesive material on the aluminium surface. To increase adhesion strength between aluminium layer and the adhesive material, the foil is heat treated. For efficient heating, induction heating was considered as state-of-the-art treatment process. Due to the complexity of the heating process and the unpredictable nature of the heating source, the control of the process is not yet optimised. In this work, a finite element analysis of the process was established and various process parameters were studied. The process was simplified and modelled in 3D. The numerical model contains an air domain, an aluminium layer and a copper coil fitted with a magnetic field concentrating material. The effect of changing the speed of the aluminium foil (or rolling speed) was studied with the change of the coil current. Statistical analysis was used for generating a general control equation of coil current with changing rolling speed.
Risk management for structures with a risk of explosion should be considered very carefully when performing a risk analysis according to IEC 62305-2. In contrast to the 2006 edition of the standard, the 2010 edition describes the topic “Structures with a risk of explosion” in more detail. Moreover, in Germany separate procedures and parameters are defined for the risk analysis of structures with a risk of explosion (Supplement 3 of the German DIN EN 62305-2 standard). This paper describes the contents and the relevant calculations of this Supplement 3, together with a numerical example.
The 2nd edition of the lightning risk management
standard (IEC 62305-2) considers structures, which may
endanger environment. In these cases, the loss is not limited to
the structure itself, which is valid for usual structures. In the past
(Edition 1) this danger was simply taken into account by a special
hazard factor, multiplying the existing risk for the structure with
a number. Now, in the edition 2, we add to the risk for the
structure itself a “second risk” due to the losses outside the
structure. The losses outside can be treated independently from
what occurs inside. This is a major advantage to analyze the risk
for sensitive structures, like chemical plants, nuclear plants, or
structures containing explosives, etc. In this paper, the existing
procedure given by the European version EN 62305-2 Ed.2 is
further developed and applied to a few structures.