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Temperature-dependent ranges of coexistence in a model of a two-prey-one-predator microbial food web
(2012)
The objective of our study was to analyze the effects of temperature on the population dynamics of a three-species food web consisting of two prey bacteria (Pedobacter sp. and Acinetobacter johnsonii) and a protozoan predator (Tetrahymena pyriformis) as model organisms. We assessed the effects of temperature on the growth rates of all three species with the objective of developing a model with four differential equations based on the experimental data. The following hypotheses were tested at a theoretical level: Firstly, temperature changes can affect the dynamic behavior of a system by temperature-dependent parameters and interactions and secondly, food web response to temperature cannot be derived from the single species temperature response. The main outcome of the study is that temperature changes affect the parameter range where coexistence is possible within all three species. This has significant consequences on our ideas regarding the evaluation of effects of global warming.
In the context of the Solvency II directive, the operation of an internal risk model is a possible way for risk assessment and for the determination of the solvency capital requirement of an insurance company in the European Union. A Monte Carlo procedure is customary to generate a model output. To be compliant with the directive, validation of the internal risk model is conducted on the basis of the model output. For this purpose, we suggest a new test for checking whether there is a significant change in the modeled solvency capital requirement. Asymptotic properties of the test statistic are investigated and a bootstrap approximation is justified. A simulation study investigates the performance of the test in the finite sample case and confirms the theoretical results. The internal risk model and the application of the test is illustrated in a simplified example. The method has more general usage for inference of a broad class of law-invariant and coherent risk measures on the basis of a paired sample.