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Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Due to the interfering effects of acetic acid in many fermentation processes, a gas-diffusion technique was developed for the online determination of acetic acid. The measurements were accomplished with a flow diffusion analysis (FDA) unit from the TRACE Analytics GmbH, Braunschweig, Germany. The diffusion analysis is based on the UV-absorbance of acetic acid at 205 nm. The measurement was achieved by the separation of an acceptor and a carrier stream (acidified fermentation broth) using a gas permeable polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane, whereby broth constituents that would otherwise disturb the UV-measurement of acetic acid, are held back efficiently. Merely, the fermentation by-products, e.g. formic acid, is capable of diffusing through the membrane. While formic acid can disturb the measurement, carbon dioxide does not absorb at 205 nm. The method operates with time-dependent sample enrichment. During the analysis, a small volume of the acceptor stream is stopped for a defined time interval in the acceptor chamber. During this period, the gaseous acetic acid diffuses through the membrane and is enriched in the acceptor chamber. Subsequently after the enrichment, the acceptor stream flows through a UV-detector. The intensity of the signal is proportional to the acetic acid concentration. Online measurements in bioreactors via a sterile filtration probe have been accomplished. A linear calibration in the range of 0.5–5.0 g/L acetic acid with a relative standard deviation of <5 % was obtained. A sampling rate of 8 samples per hour was possible. The system was applied for the determination of acetic acid in E. coli fermentation broth. The instrument is easy to clean, very user-friendly and does not require any toxic or expensive reagents.
On-line monitoring of the metabolic activity of microorganisms involved in intermediate stages of biogas production plays an important role to avoid undesirable “down times” during the biogas production. In order to control this process, an on-chip differential measuring system based on the light-addressable potentiometric sensor (LAPS) principle combined with a 3D-printed multi-chamber structure has been realized. As a test microorganism, Escherichia coli K12 (E. coli K12) were used for cell-based measurements. Multi-chamber structures were developed to determine the metabolic activity of E. coli K12 in suspension for a different number of cells, responding to the addition of a constant or variable amount of glucose concentrations, enabling differential and simultaneous measurements.