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We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
The aim of the present study was the characterisation of three true subtilisins and one phylogenetically intermediate subtilisin from halotolerant and halophilic microorganisms. Considering the currently growing enzyme market for efficient and novel biocatalysts, data mining is a promising source for novel, as yet uncharacterised enzymes, especially from halophilic or halotolerant Bacillaceae, which offer great potential to meet industrial needs. Both halophilic bacteria Pontibacillus marinus DSM 16465ᵀ and Alkalibacillus haloalkaliphilus DSM 5271ᵀ and both halotolerant bacteria Metabacillus indicus DSM 16189 and Litchfieldia alkalitelluris DSM 16976ᵀ served as a source for the four new subtilisins SPPM, SPAH, SPMI and SPLA. The protease genes were cloned and expressed in Bacillus subtilis DB104. Purification to apparent homogeneity was achieved by ethanol precipitation, desalting and ion-exchange chromatography. Enzyme activity could be observed between pH 5.0–12.0 with an optimum for SPPM, SPMI and SPLA around pH 9.0 and for SPAH at pH 10.0. The optimal temperature for SPMI and SPLA was 70 °C and for SPPM and SPAH 55 °C and 50 °C, respectively. All proteases showed high stability towards 5% (w/v) SDS and were active even at NaCl concentrations of 5 M. The four proteases demonstrate potential for future biotechnological applications.
The eVTOL industry is a rapidly growing mass market expected to start in 2024. eVTOL compete, caused by their predicted missions, with ground-based transportation modes, including mainly passenger cars. Therefore, the automotive and classical aircraft design process is reviewed and compared to highlight advantages for eVTOL development. A special focus is on ergonomic comfort and safety. The need for further investigation of eVTOL’s crashworthiness is outlined by, first, specifying the relevance of passive safety via accident statistics and customer perception analysis; second, comparing the current state of regulation and certification; and third, discussing the advantages of integral safety and applying the automotive safety approach for eVTOL development. Integral safety links active and passive safety, while the automotive safety approach means implementing standardized mandatory full-vehicle crash tests for future eVTOL. Subsequently, possible crash impact conditions are analyzed, and three full-vehicle crash load cases are presented.
The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.
Based on the European Space Agency (ESA) Science in Space Environment (SciSpacE) community White Paper “Human Physiology – Musculoskeletal system”, this perspective highlights unmet needs and suggests new avenues for future studies in musculoskeletal research to enable crewed exploration missions. The musculoskeletal system is essential for sustaining physical function and energy metabolism, and the maintenance of health during exploration missions, and consequently mission success, will be tightly linked to musculoskeletal function. Data collection from current space missions from pre-, during-, and post-flight periods would provide important information to understand and ultimately offset musculoskeletal alterations during long-term spaceflight. In addition, understanding the kinetics of the different components of the musculoskeletal system in parallel with a detailed description of the molecular mechanisms driving these alterations appears to be the best approach to address potential musculoskeletal problems that future exploratory-mission crew will face. These research efforts should be accompanied by technical advances in molecular and phenotypic monitoring tools to provide in-flight real-time feedback.
Motile cilia are hair-like cell extensions that beat periodically to generate fluid flow along various epithelial tissues within the body. In dense multiciliated carpets, cilia were shown to exhibit a remarkable coordination of their beat in the form of traveling metachronal waves, a phenomenon which supposedly enhances fluid transport. Yet, how cilia coordinate their regular beat in multiciliated epithelia to move fluids remains insufficiently understood, particularly due to lack of rigorous quantification. We combine experiments, novel analysis tools, and theory to address this knowledge gap. To investigate collective dynamics of cilia, we studied zebrafish multiciliated epithelia in the nose and the brain. We focused mainly on the zebrafish nose, due to its conserved properties with other ciliated tissues and its superior accessibility for non-invasive imaging. We revealed that cilia are synchronized only locally and that the size of local synchronization domains increases with the viscosity of the surrounding medium. Even though synchronization is local only, we observed global patterns of traveling metachronal waves across the zebrafish multiciliated epithelium. Intriguingly, these global wave direction patterns are conserved across individual fish, but different for left and right noses, unveiling a chiral asymmetry of metachronal coordination. To understand the implications of synchronization for fluid pumping, we used a computational model of a regular array of cilia. We found that local metachronal synchronization prevents steric collisions, i.e., cilia colliding with each other, and improves fluid pumping in dense cilia carpets, but hardly affects the direction of fluid flow. In conclusion, we show that local synchronization together with tissue-scale cilia alignment coincide and generate metachronal wave patterns in multiciliated epithelia, which enhance their physiological function of fluid pumping.
High aerodynamic efficiency requires propellers with high aspect ratios, while propeller sweep potentially reduces noise. Propeller sweep and high aspect ratios increase elasticity and coupling of structural mechanics and aerodynamics, affecting the propeller performance and noise. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influence of elasticity on forward-swept, backward-swept, and unswept propellers in hover conditions. A reduced-order blade element momentum approach is coupled with a one-dimensional Timoshenko beam theory and Farassat's formulation 1A. The results of the aeroelastic simulation are used as input for the aeroacoustic calculation. The analysis shows that elasticity influences noise radiation because thickness and loading noise respond differently to deformations. In the case of the backward-swept propeller, the location of the maximum sound pressure level shifts forward by 0.5 °, while in the case of the forward-swept propeller, it shifts backward by 0.5 °. Therefore, aeroacoustic optimization requires the consideration of propeller deformation.
The number of electronic vehicles increase steadily while the space for extending the charging infrastructure is limited. In particular in urban areas, where parking spaces in attractive areas are famous, opportunities to setup new charging stations is very limited. This leads to an overload of some very attractive charging stations and an underutilization of less attractive ones. Against this background, the paper at hand presents the design of an e-vehicle reservation system that aims at distributing the utilization of the charging infrastructure, particularly in urban areas. By applying a design science approach, the requirements for a reservation-based utilization approach are elicited and a model for a suitable distribution approach and its instantiation are developed. The artefact is evaluated by simulating the distribution effects based on data of real charging station utilizations.
The first and last mile of a railway journey, in both freight and transit applications, constitutes a high effort and is either non-productive (e.g. in the case of depot operations) or highly inefficient (e.g. in industrial railways). These parts are typically managed on-sight, i.e. with no signalling and train protection systems ensuring the freedom of movement. This is possible due to the rather short braking distances of individual vehicles and shunting consists. The present article analyses the braking behaviour of such shunting units. For this purpose, a dedicated model is developed. It is calibrated on published results of brake tests and validated against a high-definition model for low-speed applications. Based on this model, multiple simulations are executed to obtain a Monte Carlo simulation of the resulting braking distances. Based on the distribution properties and established safety levels, the risk of exceeding certain braking distances is evaluated and maximum braking distances are derived. Together with certain parameters of the system, these can serve in the design and safety assessment of driver assistance systems and automation of these processes.