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A Gamified Information System (GIS) implements game concepts and elements, such as affordances and game design principles to motivate people. Based on the idea to develop a GIS to increase the motivation of software developers to perform software quality tasks, the research work at hand aims at investigating relevant requirements from that target group. Therefore, 14 interviews with software development experts are conducted and analyzed. According to the results, software developers prefer the affordances points, narrative storytelling in a multiplayer and a round-based setting. Furthermore, six design principles for the development of a GIS are derived.
We introduce a new way to measure the forecast effort that analysts devote to their earnings forecasts by measuring the analyst's general effort for all covered firms. While the commonly applied effort measure is based on analyst behaviour for one firm, our measure considers analyst behaviour for all covered firms. Our general effort measure captures additional information about analyst effort and thus can identify accurate forecasts. We emphasise the importance of investigating analyst behaviour in a larger context and argue that analysts who generally devote substantial forecast effort are also likely to devote substantial effort to a specific firm, even if this effort might not be captured by a firm-specific measure. Empirical results reveal that analysts who devote higher general forecast effort issue more accurate forecasts. Additional investigations show that analysts' career prospects improve with higher general forecast effort. Our measure improves on existing methods as it has higher explanatory power regarding differences in forecast accuracy than the commonly applied effort measure. Additionally, it can address research questions that cannot be examined with a firm-specific measure. It provides a simple but comprehensive way to identify accurate analysts.
Determinants of earnings forecast error, earnings forecast revision and earnings forecast accuracy
(2012)
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and is considered a high-risk asset class whose price changes are difficult to predict. Current research focusses on daily price movements with a limited number of predictors. The paper at hand aims at identifying measurable indicators for Bitcoin price movements and the development of a suitable forecasting model for hourly changes. The paper provides three research contributions. First, a set of significant indicators for predicting the Bitcoin price is identified. Second, the results of a trained Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) neural network that predicts price changes on an hourly basis is presented and compared with other algorithms. Third, the results foster discussions of the applicability of neural nets for stock price predictions. In total, 47 input features for a period of over 10 months could be retrieved to train a neural net that predicts the Bitcoin price movements with an error rate of 3.52 %.
Domain experts regularly teach novice students how to perform a task. This often requires them to adjust their behavior to the less knowledgeable audience and, hence, to behave in a more didactic manner. Eye movement modeling examples (EMMEs) are a contemporary educational tool for displaying experts’ (natural or didactic) problem-solving behavior as well as their eye movements to learners. While research on expert-novice communication mainly focused on experts’ changes in explicit, verbal communication behavior, it is as yet unclear whether and how exactly experts adjust their nonverbal behavior. This study first investigated whether and how experts change their eye movements and mouse clicks (that are displayed in EMMEs) when they perform a task naturally versus teach a task didactically. Programming experts and novices initially debugged short computer codes in a natural manner. We first characterized experts’ natural problem-solving behavior by contrasting it with that of novices. Then, we explored the changes in experts’ behavior when being subsequently instructed to model their task solution didactically. Experts became more similar to novices on measures associated with experts’ automatized processes (i.e., shorter fixation durations, fewer transitions between code and output per click on the run button when behaving didactically). This adaptation might make it easier for novices to follow or imitate the expert behavior. In contrast, experts became less similar to novices for measures associated with more strategic behavior (i.e., code reading linearity, clicks on run button) when behaving didactically.
Gamification and gamified information systems (GIS) apply video game elements to encourage the work on boring and everyday tasks. Meanwhile, several research works provide evidence that gamification increases efficiency and effectivity of such tasks. The paper at hand investigates the health care sector, which is challenged with cost pressure and suffers in process efficiency. We hypothesize that GIS may improve the efficiency and quality of care processes. By applying an interview-based content analysis, the paper at hand evaluates gamification elements in an assisted living environment and provides three research contributions. First, insights into relevant GIS affordances and application examples for assisted living facilities are given. Second, assisted living experts evaluate GIS design guidelines. Both the relevant affordances and design principles comprise a basis for the development of a GIS for social workers in assisted living facilities. Third, potential adoption barriers and design guidelines for GIS in assisted living are presented.
In this article, we introduce how eye-tracking technology might become a promising tool to teach programming skills, such as debugging with ‘Eye Movement Modeling Examples’ (EMME). EMME are tutorial videos that visualize an expert's (e.g., a programming teacher's) eye movements during task performance to guide students’ attention, e.g., as a moving dot or circle. We first introduce the general idea behind the EMME method and present studies that showed first promising results regarding the benefits of EMME to support programming education. However, we argue that the instructional design of EMME varies notably across them, as evidence-based guidelines on how to create effective EMME are often lacking. As an example, we present our ongoing research on the effects of different ways to instruct the EMME model prior to video creation. Finally, we highlight open questions for future investigations that could help improving the design of EMME for (programming) education.