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Following earlier studies, we present forward and inverse simulations of heat and fluid transport of the upper crust using a local 3-D model of the Kola area. We provide best estimates for palaeotemperatures and permeabilities, their errors and their dependencies. Our results allow discriminating between the two mentioned processes to a certain extent, partly resolving the non-uniqueness of the problem. We find clear indications for a significant contribution of advective heat transport, which, in turn, imply only slightly lower ground surface temperatures during the last glacial maximum relative to the present value. These findings are consistent with the general background knowledge of (i) the fracture zones and the corresponding fluid movements in the bedrock and (ii) the glacial history of the Kola area.
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Modeling contribution to risk assessment of thermal production power for geothermal reservoirs
(2013)
The response of Bacillus licheniformis to heat and ethanol stress and the role of the SigB regulon
(2013)
Implementation of gender and diversity perspectives in transport development plans in germany
(2020)
As mobility should ensure the accessibility to and participation in society, transport planning has to deal with a variety of gender and diversity categories affecting users’ mobility needs and patterns. Exemplified by an analysis of an instrument of transport development processes – German Transport Development Plans (TDPs) – we investigated to what extent diverse target groups and their mobility requirements are implemented in transport strategy papers. Research results illustrate a still-prevalent neglect of several relevant gender and diversity categories while prioritizing and focusing on eco-friendly topics. But how sustainable can transport be without facing the diversification of life circumstances?
Landslides, rock falls or related subaerial and subaqueous mass slides can generate devastating impulse waves in adjacent waterbodies. Such waves can occur in lakes and fjords, or due to glacier calving in bays or at steep ocean coastlines. Infrastructure and residential houses along coastlines of those waterbodies are often situated on low elevation terrain, and are potentially at risk from inundation. Impulse waves, running up a uniform slope and generating an overland flow over an initially dry adjacent horizontal plane, represent a frequently found scenario, which needs to be better understood for disaster planning and mitigation. This study presents a novel set of large-scale flume test focusing on solitary waves propagating over a 1:14.5 slope and breaking onto a horizontal section. Examining the characteristics of overland flow, this study gives, for the first time, insight into the fundamental process of overland flow of a broken solitary wave: its shape and celerity, as well as its momentum when wave breaking has taken place beforehand.