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Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.
Our knowledge on tree responses to drought is mainly based on short-term manipulation experiments which do not capture any possible long-term adjustments in this response. Therefore, historical water channels in inner-Alpine dry valleys were used as century-long irrigation experiments to investigate adjustments in tree growth to contrasting water supply. This involved quantifying the tree-ring growth of irrigated and non-irrigated (control) Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais (Switzerland), as well as European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) and black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) in Vinschgau (Italy). Furthermore, the adjustments in radial growth of Scots pine and European larch to an abrupt stop in irrigation were analyzed.
Irrigation promoted the radial growth of all tree species investigated compared to the control: (1) directly through increased soil water availability, and (2) indirectly through increased soil nutrients and humus contents in the irrigated plots. Irrigation led to a full elimination of growth responses to climate for European larch and black pine, but not for Scots pine, which might become more sensitive to drought with increasing tree size in Valais. For the control trees, the response of the latewood increment to water availability in July/August has decreased in recent decades for all species, but increased in May for Scots pine only. The sudden irrigation stop caused a drop in radial growth to a lower level for Scots pine or similar level for larch compared to the control for up to ten years. However, both tree species were then able to adjust to the new conditions and subsequently grew with similar (Scots pine) or even higher growth rates (larch) than the control.
To estimate the impact of climate change on future forest development, the duration of manipulation experiments should be on longer time scales in order to capture adjustment processes and feedback mechanisms of forest ecosystems.