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In recent years, the development of large pretrained language models, such as BERT and GPT, significantly improved information extraction systems on various tasks, including relation classification. State-of-the-art systems are highly accurate on scientific benchmarks. A lack of explainability is currently a complicating factor in many real-world applications. Comprehensible systems are necessary to prevent biased, counterintuitive, or harmful decisions.
We introduce semantic extents, a concept to analyze decision patterns for the relation classification task. Semantic extents are the most influential parts of texts concerning classification decisions. Our definition allows similar procedures to determine semantic extents for humans and models. We provide an annotation tool and a software framework to determine semantic extents for humans and models conveniently and reproducibly. Comparing both reveals that models tend to learn shortcut patterns from data. These patterns are hard to detect with current interpretability methods, such as input reductions. Our approach can help detect and eliminate spurious decision patterns during model development. Semantic extents can increase the reliability and security of natural language processing systems. Semantic extents are an essential step in enabling applications in critical areas like healthcare or finance. Moreover, our work opens new research directions for developing methods to explain deep learning models.
Market abstraction of energy markets and policies - application in an agent-based modeling toolbox
(2023)
In light of emerging challenges in energy systems, markets are prone to changing dynamics and market design. Simulation models are commonly used to understand the changing dynamics of future electricity markets. However, existing market models were often created with specific use cases in mind, which limits their flexibility and usability. This can impose challenges for using a single model to compare different market designs. This paper introduces a new method of defining market designs for energy market simulations. The proposed concept makes it easy to incorporate different market designs into electricity market models by using relevant parameters derived from analyzing existing simulation tools, morphological categorization and ontologies. These parameters are then used to derive a market abstraction and integrate it into an agent-based simulation framework, allowing for a unified analysis of diverse market designs. Furthermore, we showcase the usability of integrating new types of long-term contracts and over-the-counter trading. To validate this approach, two case studies are demonstrated: a pay-as-clear market and a pay-as-bid long-term market. These examples demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.
Background
Hip fractures are a common and costly health problem, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality, as well as high costs for healthcare systems, especially for the elderly. Implementing surgical preventive strategies has the potential to improve the quality of life and reduce the burden on healthcare resources, particularly in the long term. However, there are currently limited guidelines for standardizing hip fracture prophylaxis practices.
Methods
This study used a cost-effectiveness analysis with a finite-state Markov model and cohort simulation to evaluate the primary and secondary surgical prevention of hip fractures in the elderly. Patients aged 60 to 90 years were simulated in two different models (A and B) to assess prevention at different levels. Model A assumed prophylaxis was performed during the fracture operation on the contralateral side, while Model B included individuals with high fracture risk factors. Costs were obtained from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, and transition probabilities and health state utilities were derived from available literature. The baseline assumption was a 10% reduction in fracture risk after prophylaxis. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the reliability and variability of the results.
Results
With a 10% fracture risk reduction, model A costs between $8,850 and $46,940 per quality-adjusted life-year ($/QALY). Additionally, it proved most cost-effective in the age range between 61 and 81 years. The sensitivity analysis established that a reduction of ≥ 2.8% is needed for prophylaxis to be definitely cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness at the secondary prevention level was most sensitive to the cost of the contralateral side’s prophylaxis, the patient’s age, and fracture treatment cost. For high-risk patients with no fracture history, the cost-effectiveness of a preventive strategy depends on their risk profile. In the baseline analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at the primary prevention level varied between $11,000/QALY and $74,000/QALY, which is below the defined willingness to pay threshold.
Conclusion
Due to the high cost of hip fracture treatment and its increased morbidity, surgical prophylaxis strategies have demonstrated that they can significantly relieve the healthcare system. Various key assumptions facilitated the modeling, allowing for adequate room for uncertainty. Further research is needed to evaluate health-state-associated risks.
Background
Post-COVID-19 syndrome (PCS) is a lingering disease with ongoing symptoms such as fatigue and cognitive impairment resulting in a high impact on the daily life of patients. Understanding the pathophysiology of PCS is a public health priority, as it still poses a diagnostic and treatment challenge for physicians.
Methods
In this prospective observational cohort study, we analyzed the retinal microcirculation using Retinal Vessel Analysis (RVA) in a cohort of patients with PCS and compared it to an age- and gender-matched healthy cohort (n = 41, matched out of n = 204).
Measurements and main results
PCS patients exhibit persistent endothelial dysfunction (ED), as indicated by significantly lower venular flicker-induced dilation (vFID; 3.42% ± 1.77% vs. 4.64% ± 2.59%; p = 0.02), narrower central retinal artery equivalent (CRAE; 178.1 [167.5–190.2] vs. 189.1 [179.4–197.2], p = 0.01) and lower arteriolar-venular ratio (AVR; (0.84 [0.8–0.9] vs. 0.88 [0.8–0.9], p = 0.007). When combining AVR and vFID, predicted scores reached good ability to discriminate groups (area under the curve: 0.75). Higher PCS severity scores correlated with lower AVR (R = − 0.37 p = 0.017). The association of microvascular changes with PCS severity were amplified in PCS patients exhibiting higher levels of inflammatory parameters.
Conclusion
Our results demonstrate that prolonged endothelial dysfunction is a hallmark of PCS, and impairments of the microcirculation seem to explain ongoing symptoms in patients. As potential therapies for PCS emerge, RVA parameters may become relevant as clinical biomarkers for diagnosis and therapy management.
We consider time-dependent portfolios and discuss the allocation of changes in the risk of a portfolio to changes in the portfolio’s components. For this purpose we adopt established allocation principles. We also use our approach to obtain forecasts for changes in the risk of the portfolio’s components. To put the approach into practice we present an implementation based on the output of a simulation. Allocation is illustrated with an example portfolio in the context of Solvency II. The quality of the forecasts is investigated with an empirical study.
On the applicability of several tests to models with not identically distributed random effects
(2023)
We consider Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Cramér–von-Mises type tests for testing central symmetry, exchangeability, and independence. In the standard case, the tests are intended for the application to independent and identically distributed data with unknown distribution. The tests are available for multivariate data and bootstrap procedures are suitable to obtain critical values. We discuss the applicability of the tests to random effects models, where the random effects are independent but not necessarily identically distributed and with possibly unknown distributions. Theoretical results show the adequacy of the tests in this situation. The quality of the tests in models with random effects is investigated by simulations. Empirical results obtained confirm the theoretical findings. A real data example illustrates the application.
The Cramér-von-Mises distance is applied to the distribution of the excess over a confidence level. Asymptotics of related statistics are investigated, and it is seen that the obtained limit distributions differ from the classical ones. For that reason, quantiles of the new limit distributions are given and new bootstrap techniques for approximation purposes are introduced and justified. The results motivate new one-sample goodness-of-fit tests for the distribution of the excess over a confidence level and a new confidence interval for the related fitting error. Simulation studies investigate size and power of the tests as well as coverage probabilities of the confidence interval in the finite sample case. A practice-oriented application of the Cramér-von-Mises tests is the determination of an appropriate confidence level for the fitting approach. The adoption of the idea to the well-known problem of threshold detection in the context of peaks over threshold modelling is sketched and illustrated by data examples.
Based on the European Space Agency (ESA) Science in Space Environment (SciSpacE) community White Paper “Human Physiology – Musculoskeletal system”, this perspective highlights unmet needs and suggests new avenues for future studies in musculoskeletal research to enable crewed exploration missions. The musculoskeletal system is essential for sustaining physical function and energy metabolism, and the maintenance of health during exploration missions, and consequently mission success, will be tightly linked to musculoskeletal function. Data collection from current space missions from pre-, during-, and post-flight periods would provide important information to understand and ultimately offset musculoskeletal alterations during long-term spaceflight. In addition, understanding the kinetics of the different components of the musculoskeletal system in parallel with a detailed description of the molecular mechanisms driving these alterations appears to be the best approach to address potential musculoskeletal problems that future exploratory-mission crew will face. These research efforts should be accompanied by technical advances in molecular and phenotypic monitoring tools to provide in-flight real-time feedback.
Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision aid-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.
In this paper, we provide an analytical study of the transmission eigenvalue problem with two conductivity parameters. We will assume that the underlying physical model is given by the scattering of a plane wave for an isotropic scatterer. In previous studies, this eigenvalue problem was analyzed with one conductive boundary parameter whereas we will consider the case of two parameters. We prove the existence and discreteness of the transmission eigenvalues as well as study the dependence on the physical parameters. We are able to prove monotonicity of the first transmission eigenvalue with respect to the parameters and consider the limiting procedure as the second boundary parameter vanishes. Lastly, we provide extensive numerical experiments to validate the theoretical work.
In this work, the bioabsorbable materials, namely fibroin, polylactide acid (PLA), magnesium and magnesium oxide are investigated for their application as transient, resistive temperature detectors (RTD). For this purpose, a thin-film magnesium-based meander-like electrode is deposited onto a flexible, bioabsorbable substrate (fibroin or PLA) and encapsulated (passivated) by additional magnesium oxide layers on top and below the magnesium-based electrode. The morphology of different layered RTDs is analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. The sensor performance and lifetime of the RTD is characterized both under ambient atmospheric conditions between 30°C and 43°C, and wet tissue-like conditions with a constant temperature regime of 37°C. The latter triggers the degradation process of the magnesium-based layers. The 3-layers RTDs on a PLA substrate could achieve a lifetime of 8.5 h. These sensors also show the best sensor performance under ambient atmospheric conditions with a mean sensitivity of 0.48 Ω/°C ± 0.01 Ω/°C.
Herein, fibroin, polylactide (PLA), and carbon are investigated for their suitability as biocompatible and biodegradable materials for amperometric biosensors. For this purpose, screen-printed carbon electrodes on the biodegradable substrates fibroin and PLA are modified with a glucose oxidase membrane and then encapsulated with the biocompatible material Ecoflex. The influence of different curing parameters of the carbon electrodes on the resulting biosensor characteristics is studied. The morphology of the electrodes is investigated by scanning electron microscopy, and the biosensor performance is examined by amperometric measurements of glucose (0.5–10 mM) in phosphate buffer solution, pH 7.4, at an applied potential of 1.2 V versus a Ag/AgCl reference electrode. Instead of Ecoflex, fibroin, PLA, and wound adhesive are tested as alternative encapsulation compounds: a series of swelling tests with different fibroin compositions, PLA, and Ecoflex has been performed before characterizing the most promising candidates by chronoamperometry. Therefore, the carbon electrodes are completely covered with the particular encapsulation material. Chronoamperometric measurements with H2O2 concentrations between 0.5 and 10 mM enable studying the leakage current behavior.
Germany is a frontrunner in setting frameworks for the transition to a low-carbon system. The mobility sector plays a significant role in this shift, affecting different people and groups on multiple levels. Without acceptance from these stakeholders, emission targets are out of reach. This research analyzes how the heterogeneous preferences of various stakeholders align with the transformation of the mobility sector, looking at the extent to which the German transformation paths are supported and where stakeholders are located.
Under the research objective of comparing stakeholders' preferences to identify which car segments require additional support for a successful climate transition, a status quo of stakeholders and car performance criteria is the foundation for the analysis. Stakeholders' hidden preferences hinder the derivation of criteria weightings from stakeholders; therefore, a ranking from observed preferences is used. This study's inverse multi-criteria decision analysis means that weightings can be predicted and used together with a recalibrated performance matrix to explore future preferences toward car segments.
Results show that stakeholders prefer medium-sized cars, with the trend pointing towards the increased potential for alternative propulsion technologies and electrified vehicles. These insights can guide the improved targeting of policy supporting the energy and mobility transformation. Additionally, the method proposed in this work can fully handle subjective approaches while incorporating a priori information. A software implementation of the proposed method completes this work and is made publicly available.
A method for detecting and approximating fault lines or surfaces, respectively, or decision curves in two and three dimensions with guaranteed accuracy is presented. Reformulated as a classification problem, our method starts from a set of scattered points along with the corresponding classification algorithm to construct a representation of a decision curve by points with prescribed maximal distance to the true decision curve. Hereby, our algorithm ensures that the representing point set covers the decision curve in its entire extent and features local refinement based on the geometric properties of the decision curve. We demonstrate applications of our method to problems related to the detection of faults, to multi-criteria decision aid and, in combination with Kirsch’s factorization method, to solving an inverse acoustic scattering problem. In all applications we considered in this work, our method requires significantly less pointwise classifications than previously employed algorithms.
The growing body of political texts opens up new opportunities for rich insights into political dynamics and ideologies but also increases the workload for manual analysis. Automated speaker attribution, which detects who said what to whom in a speech event and is closely related to semantic role labeling, is an important processing step for computational text analysis. We study the potential of the large language model family Llama 2 to automate speaker attribution in German parliamentary debates from 2017-2021. We fine-tune Llama 2 with QLoRA, an efficient training strategy, and observe our approach to achieve competitive performance in the GermEval 2023 Shared Task On Speaker Attribution in German News Articles and Parliamentary Debates. Our results shed light on the capabilities of large language models in automating speaker attribution, revealing a promising avenue for computational analysis of political discourse and the development of semantic role labeling systems.
Companies often build their businesses based on product information and therefore try to automate the process of information extraction (IE). Since the information source is usually heterogeneous and non-standardized, classic extract, transform, load techniques reach their limits. Hence, companies must implement the newest findings from research to tackle the challenges of process automation. They require a flexible and robust system that is extendable and ensures the optimal processing of the different document types. This paper provides a distributed microservice architecture pattern that enables the automated generation of IE pipelines. Since their optimal design is individual for each input document, the system ensures the ad-hoc generation of pipelines depending on specific document characteristics at runtime. Furthermore, it introduces the automated quality determination of each available pipeline and controls the integration of new microservices based on their impact on the business value. The introduced system enables fast prototyping of the newest approaches from research and supports companies in automating their IE processes. Based on the automated quality determination, it ensures that the generated pipelines always meet defined business requirements when they come into productive use.
In comparison to single-analyte devices, multiplexed systems for a multianalyte detection offer a reduced assay time and sample volume, low cost, and high throughput. Herein, a multiplexing platform for an automated quasi-simultaneous characterization of multiple (up to 16) capacitive field-effect sensors by the capacitive–voltage (C–V) and the constant-capacitance (ConCap) mode is presented. The sensors are mounted in a newly designed multicell arrangement with one common reference electrode and are electrically connected to the impedance analyzer via the base station. A Python script for the automated characterization of the sensors executes the user-defined measurement protocol. The developed multiplexing system is tested for pH measurements and the label-free detection of ligand-stabilized, charged gold nanoparticles.
Immunosorbent turnip vein clearing virus (TVCV) particles displaying the IgG-binding domains D and E of Staphylococcus aureus protein A (PA) on every coat protein (CP) subunit (TVCVPA) were purified from plants via optimized and new protocols. The latter used polyethylene glycol (PEG) raw precipitates, from which virions were selectively re-solubilized in reverse PEG concentration gradients. This procedure improved the integrity of both TVCVPA and the wild-type subgroup 3 tobamovirus. TVCVPA could be loaded with more than 500 IgGs per virion, which mediated the immunocapture of fluorescent dyes, GFP, and active enzymes. Bi-enzyme ensembles of cooperating glucose oxidase and horseradish peroxidase were tethered together on the TVCVPA carriers via a single antibody type, with one enzyme conjugated chemically to its Fc region, and the other one bound as a target, yielding synthetic multi-enzyme complexes. In microtiter plates, the TVCVPA-displayed sugar-sensing system possessed a considerably increased reusability upon repeated testing, compared to the IgG-bound enzyme pair in the absence of the virus. A high coverage of the viral adapters was also achieved on Ta2O5 sensor chip surfaces coated with a polyelectrolyte interlayer, as a prerequisite for durable TVCVPA-assisted electrochemical biosensing via modularly IgG-assembled sensor enzymes.
Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), a strong oxidizer, is a commonly used sterilization agent employed during aseptic food processing and medical applications. To assess the sterilization efficiency with H₂O₂, bacterial spores are common microbial systems due to their remarkable robustness against a wide variety of decontamination strategies. Despite their widespread use, there is, however, only little information about the detailed time-resolved mechanism underlying the oxidative spore death by H₂O₂. In this work, we investigate chemical and morphological changes of individual Bacillus atrophaeus spores undergoing oxidative damage using optical sensing with trapping Raman microscopy in real-time. The time-resolved experiments reveal that spore death involves two distinct phases: (i) an initial phase dominated by the fast release of dipicolinic acid (DPA), a major spore biomarker, which indicates the rupture of the spore’s core; and (ii) the oxidation of the remaining spore material resulting in the subsequent fragmentation of the spores’ coat. Simultaneous observation of the spore morphology by optical microscopy corroborates these mechanisms. The dependence of the onset of DPA release and the time constant of spore fragmentation on H₂O₂ shows that the formation of reactive oxygen species from H₂O₂ is the rate-limiting factor of oxidative spore death.
Subglacial environments on Earth offer important analogs to Ocean World targets in our solar system. These unique microbial ecosystems remain understudied due to the challenges of access through thick glacial ice (tens to hundreds of meters). Additionally, sub-ice collections must be conducted in a clean manner to ensure sample integrity for downstream microbiological and geochemical analyses. We describe the field-based cleaning of a melt probe that was used to collect brine samples from within a glacier conduit at Blood Falls, Antarctica, for geomicrobiological studies. We used a thermoelectric melting probe called the IceMole that was designed to be minimally invasive in that the logistical requirements in support of drilling operations were small and the probe could be cleaned, even in a remote field setting, so as to minimize potential contamination. In our study, the exterior bioburden on the IceMole was reduced to levels measured in most clean rooms, and below that of the ice surrounding our sampling target. Potential microbial contaminants were identified during the cleaning process; however, very few were detected in the final englacial sample collected with the IceMole and were present in extremely low abundances (∼0.063% of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences). This cleaning protocol can help minimize contamination when working in remote field locations, support microbiological sampling of terrestrial subglacial environments using melting probes, and help inform planetary protection challenges for Ocean World analog mission concepts.