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For now, the Planetary Defense Conference Exercise 2021's incoming fictitious(!), asteroid, 2021 PDC, seems headed for impact on October 20th, 2021, exactly 6 months after its discovery. Today (April 26th, 2021), the impact probability is 5%, in a steep rise from 1 in 2500 upon discovery six days ago. We all know how these things end. Or do we? Unless somebody kicked off another headline-grabbing media scare or wants to keep civil defense very idle very soon, chances are that it will hit (note: this is an exercise!). Taking stock, it is barely 6 months to impact, a steadily rising likelihood that it will actually happen, and a huge uncertainty of possible impact energies: First estimates range from 1.2 MtTNT to 13 GtTNT, and this is not even the worst-worst case: a 700 m diameter massive NiFe asteroid (covered by a thin veneer of Ryugu-black rubble to match size and brightness), would come in at 70 GtTNT. In down to Earth terms, this could be all between smashing fireworks over some remote area of the globe and a 7.5 km crater downtown somewhere. Considering the deliberate and sedate ways of development of interplanetary missions it seems we can only stand and stare until we know well enough where to tell people to pack up all that can be moved at all and save themselves. But then, it could just as well be a smaller bright rock. The best estimate is 120 m diameter from optical observation alone, by 13% standard albedo. NASA's upcoming DART mission to binary asteroid (65803) Didymos is designed to hit such a small target, its moonlet Dimorphos. The Deep Impact mission's impactor in 2005 successfully guided itself to the brightest spot on comet 9P/Tempel 1, a relatively small feature on the 6 km nucleus. And 'space' has changed: By the end of this decade, one satellite communication network plans to have launched over 11000 satellites at a pace of 60 per launch every other week. This level of series production is comparable in numbers to the most prolific commercial airliners. Launch vehicle production has not simply increased correspondingly – they can be reused, although in a trade for performance. Optical and radio astronomy as well as planetary radar have made great strides in the past decade, and so has the design and production capability for everyday 'high-tech' products. 60 years ago, spaceflight was invented from scratch within two years, and there are recent examples of fast-paced space projects as well as a drive towards 'responsive space'. It seems it is not quite yet time to abandon all hope. We present what could be done and what is too close to call once thinking is shoved out of the box by a clear and present danger, to show where a little more preparedness or routine would come in handy – or become decisive. And if we fail, let's stand and stare safely and well instrumented anywhere on Earth together in the greatest adventure of science.
This paper presents the laser-based powder bed fusion (L-PBF) using various glass powders (borosilicate and quartz glass). Compared to metals, these require adapted process strategies. First, the glass powders were characterized with regard to their material properties and their processability in the powder bed. This was followed by investigations of the melting behavior of the glass powders with different laser wavelengths (10.6 µm, 1070 nm). In particular, the experimental setup of a CO2 laser was adapted for the processing of glass powder. An experimental setup with integrated coaxial temperature measurement/control and an inductively heatable build platform was created. This allowed the L-PBF process to be carried out at the transformation temperature of the glasses. Furthermore, the component’s material quality was analyzed on three-dimensional test specimen with regard to porosity, roughness, density and geometrical accuracy in order to evaluate the developed L-PBF parameters and to open up possible applications.
Digital Shadows as the aggregation, linkage and abstraction of data relating to physical objects are a central vision for the future of production. However, the majority of current research takes a technocentric approach, in which the human actors in production play a minor role. Here, the authors present an alternative anthropocentric perspective that highlights the potential and main challenges of extending the concept of Digital Shadows to humans. Following future research methodology, three prospections that illustrate use cases for Human Digital Shadows across organizational and hierarchical levels are developed: human-robot collaboration for manual work, decision support and work organization, as well as human resource management. Potentials and challenges are identified using separate SWOT analyses for the three prospections and common themes are emphasized in a concluding discussion.
Development of open educational resources for renewable energy and the energy transition process
(2021)
The dissemination of knowledge about renewable energies is understood as a social task with the highest topicality. The transfer of teaching content on renewable energies into digital open educational resources offers the opportunity to significantly accelerate the implementation of the energy transition. Thus, in the here presented project six German universities create open educational resources for the energy transition. These materials are available to the public on the internet under a free license. So far there has been no publicly accessible, editable media that cover entire learning units about renewable energies extensively and in high technical quality. Thus, in this project, the content that remains up-to-date for a longer period is appropriately prepared in terms of media didactics. The materials enable lecturers to provide students with in-depth training about technologies for the energy transition. In a particular way, the created material is also suitable for making the general public knowledgeable about the energy transition with scientifically based material.
Seismic vulnerability estimation of existing structures is unquestionably interesting topic of high priority, particularly after earthquake events. Having in mind the vast number of old masonry buildings in North Macedonia serving as public institutions, it is evident that the structural assessment of these buildings is an issue of great importance. In this paper, a comprehensive methodology for the development of seismic fragility curves of existing masonry buildings is presented. A scenario – based method that incorporates the knowledge of the tectonic style of the considered region, the active fault characterization, the earth crust model and the historical seismicity (determined via the Neo Deterministic approach) is used for calculation of the necessary response spectra. The capacity of the investigated masonry buildings has been determined by using nonlinear static analysis. MINEA software (SDA Engineering) is used for verification of the structural safety of the structures Performance point, obtained from the intersection of the capacity of the building and the spectra used, is selected as a response parameter. The thresholds of the spectral displacement are obtained by splitting the capacity curve into five parts, utilizing empirical formulas which are represented as a function of yield displacement and ultimate displacement. As a result, four levels of damage limit states are determined. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the process of fragility curves determination is noted as a final step in the proposed procedure. As a result, region specific series of vulnerability curves for structures are defined.
This paper describes the concept of an innovative, interdisciplinary, user-oriented earthquake warning and rapid response system coupled with a structural health monitoring system (SHM), capable to detect structural damages in real time. The novel system is based on interconnected decentralized seismic and structural health monitoring sensors. It is developed and will be exemplarily applied on critical infrastructures in Lower Rhine Region, in particular on a road bridge and within a chemical industrial facility. A communication network is responsible to exchange information between sensors and forward warnings and status reports about infrastructures’health condition to the concerned recipients (e.g., facility operators, local authorities). Safety measures such as emergency shutdowns are activated to mitigate structural damages and damage propagation. Local monitoring systems of the infrastructures are integrated in BIM models. The visualization of sensor data and the graphic representation of the detected damages provide spatial content to sensors data and serve as a useful and effective tool for the decision-making processes after an earthquake in the region under consideration.
Reinforced concrete frames with masonry infill walls are popular form of construction all over the world as well in seismic regions. While severe earthquakes can cause high level of damage of both reinforced concrete and masonry infills, earthquakes of lower to medium intensity some-times can cause significant level of damage of masonry infill walls. Especially important is the level of damage of face loaded infill masonry walls (out-of-plane direction) as out-of-plane load cannot only bring high level of damage to the wall, it can also be life-threating for the people near the wall. The response in out-of-plane direction directly depends on the prior in-plane damage, as previous investigation shown that it decreases resistance capacity of the in-fills. Behaviour of infill masonry walls with and without prior in-plane load is investigated in the experimental campaign and the results are presented in this paper. These results are later compared with analytical approaches for the out-of-plane resistance from the literature. Conclusions based on the experimental campaign on the influence of prior in-plane damage on the out-of-plane response of infill walls are compared with the conclusions from other authors who investigated the same problematic.
Past earthquakes demonstrated the high vulnerability of industrial facilities equipped with complex process technologies leading to serious damage of process equipment and multiple and simultaneous release of hazardous substances. Nonetheless, current standards for seismic design of industrial facilities are considered inadequate to guarantee proper safety conditions against exceptional events entailing loss of containment and related consequences. On these premises, the SPIF project -Seismic Performance of Multi-Component Systems in Special Risk Industrial Facilities- was proposed within the framework of the European H2020 SERA funding scheme. In detail, the objective of the SPIF project is the investigation of the seismic behaviour of a representative industrial multi-storey frame structure equipped with complex process components by means of shaking table tests. Along this main vein and in a performance-based design perspective, the issues investigated in depth are the interaction between a primary moment resisting frame (MRF) steel structure and secondary process components that influence the performance of the whole system; and a proper check of floor spectra predictions. The evaluation of experimental data clearly shows a favourable performance of the MRF structure, some weaknesses of local details due to the interaction between floor crossbeams and process components and, finally, the overconservatism of current design standards w.r.t. floor spectra predictions.
A new formulation to calculate the shakedown limit load of Kirchhoff plates under stochastic conditions of strength is developed. Direct structural reliability design by chance con-strained programming is based on the prescribed failure probabilities, which is an effective approach of stochastic programming if it can be formulated as an equivalent deterministic optimization problem. We restrict uncertainty to strength, the loading is still deterministic. A new formulation is derived in case of random strength with lognormal distribution. Upper bound and lower bound shakedown load factors are calculated simultaneously by a dual algorithm.
With the increased interest for interstellar exploration after the discovery of exoplanets and the proposal by Breakthrough Starshot, this paper investigates the optimisation of photon-sail trajectories in Alpha Centauri. The prime objective is to find the optimal steering strategy for a photonic sail to get captured around one of the stars after a minimum-time transfer from Earth. By extending the idea of the Breakthrough Starshot project with a deceleration phase upon arrival, the mission’s scientific yield will be increased. As a secondary objective, transfer trajectories between the stars and orbit-raising manoeuvres to explore the habitable zones of the stars are investigated. All trajectories are optimised for minimum time of flight using the trajectory optimisation software InTrance. Depending on the sail technology, interstellar travel times of 77.6-18,790 years can be achieved, which presents an average improvement of 30% with respect to previous work. Still, significant technological development is required to reach and be captured in the Alpha-Centauri system in less than a century. Therefore, a fly-through mission arguably remains the only option for a first exploratory mission to Alpha Centauri, but the enticing results obtained in this work provide perspective for future long-residence missions to our closest neighbouring star system.
Wald im Wandel
(2021)
Die Arbeit „Wald im Wandel“ beschäftigt sich mit dem derzeitigen Zustand des Waldes in Deutschland und seiner kulturhistorischen Bedeutung. Im dazugehörigen Kurzfilm sieht man Aufnahmen der menschlichen Einflussnahme auf den Wald. Diese wurden mit „waldromantischen“ Motiven umgestaltet.
Die Kraft „waldromantischer“ Bilder ist so überzeugend, dass hieraus Überlegungen zu einer klimapolitischen Kampagne entstanden sind. Diese sind auf einer Informations-Webpage mit dem Titel „Projekt: Wald im Wandel“ nachzulesen.
Die Arbeit schlägt eine Brücke vom kulturhistorischen Symbol „deutscher Wald“ hin zur Gegenwart - und dem Wald in Deutschland als einem potenziellen klimapolitischen Symbol.