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Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Various models have been proposed for the prediction of the necessary support pressure at the face of a shallow tunnel. To assess their quality, the collapse of a tunnel face was modelled with small-scale model tests at single gravity. The development of the failure mechanism and the support force at the face in dry sand were investigated. The observed displacement patterns show a negligible influence of overburden on the extent and evolution of the failure zone. The latter is significantly influenced, though, by the initial density of the sand: in dense sand a chimney-wedge-type collapse mechanism developed, which propagated towards the soil surface. Initially, loose sand did not show any discrete collapse mechanism. The necessary support force was neither influenced by the overburden nor the initial density. A comparison with quantitative predictions by several theoretical models showed that the measured necessary support pressure is overestimated by most of the models. Those by Vermeer/Ruse and Léca/Dormieux showed the best agreement to the measurements.
This paper proposes an approach to the choice and evaluation of engineering models with the aid of a typical application in geotechnics. An important issue in the construction of shallow tunnels, especially in weak ground conditions, is the tunnel face stability. Various theoretical and numerical models for predicting the necessary support pressure have been put forth in the literature. In this paper, we combine laboratory experiments performed at the University of Innsbruck with current methods of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for assessing adequacy, predictive power and robustness of the models. The major issues are the handling of the twofold uncertainty of test results and of model predictions as well as the decision about what are the influential input parameters.
The continuously growing amount of renewable sources starts compromising the stability of electrical grids. Contradictory to fossil fuel power plants, energy production of wind and photovoltaic (PV) energy is fluctuating. Although predictions have significantly improved, an outage of multi-MW offshore wind farms poses a challenging problem. One solution could be the integration of storage systems in the grid. After a short overview, this paper focuses on two exemplary battery storage systems, including the required power electronics. The grid integration, as well as the optimal usage of volatile energy reserves, is presented for a 5- kW PV system for home application, as well as for a 100- MW medium-voltage system, intended for wind farm usage. The efficiency and cost of topologies are investigated as a key parameter for large-scale integration of renewable power at medium- and low-voltage.
Fast response of Scots pine to improved water availability reflected in tree-ring width and δ13C
(2010)
Drought-induced forest decline, like the Scots pine mortality in inner-Alpine valleys, will gain in importance as the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to increase. To understand how chronic drought affects tree growth and tree-ring δ13C values, we studied mature Scots pine in an irrigation experiment in an inner-Alpine valley. Tree growth and isotope analyses were carried out at the annual and seasonal scale. At the seasonal scale, maximum δ13C values were measured after the hottest and driest period of the year, and were associated with decreasing growth rates. Inter-annual δ13C values in early- and latewood showed a strong correlation with annual climatic conditions and an immediate decrease as a response to irrigation. This indicates a tight coupling between wood formation and the freshly produced assimilates for trees exposed to chronic drought. This rapid appearance of the isotopic signal is a strong indication for an immediate and direct transfer of newly synthesized assimilates for biomass production. The fast appearance and the distinct isotopic signal suggest a low availability of old stored carbohydrates. If this was a sign for C-storage depletion, an increasing mortality could be expected when stressors increase the need for carbohydrate for defence, repair or regeneration.
• Most of the edible forest mushrooms are mycorrhizal and depend on carbohydrates produced by the associated trees. Fruiting patterns of these fungi are not yet fully understood since climatic factors alone do not completely explain mushroom occurrence.
• The objective of this study was to retrospectively find out if changing tree growth following an increment thinning has influenced the diversity patterns and productivity of associated forest mushrooms in the fungus reserve La Chanéaz, Switzerland.
• The results reveal a clear temporal relationship between the thinning, the growth reaction of trees and the reaction of the fungal community, especially for the ectomycorrhizal species. The tree-ring width of the formerly suppressed beech trees and the fruit body number increased after thinning, leading to a significantly positive correlation between fruit body numbers and tree-ring width.
• Fruit body production was influenced by previous annual tree growth, the best accordance was found between fruit body production and the tree-ring width two years previously.
• The results support the hypothesis that ectomycorrhizal fruit body production must be linked with the growth of the associated host trees. Moreover, the findings indicate the importance of including mycorrhizal fungi as important players when discussing a tree as a carbon source or sink.
Studying global change through investigation of the plastic responses of xylem anatomy in tree rings
(2010)
Variability in xylem anatomy is of interest to plant scientists because of the role water transport plays in plant performance and survival. Insights into plant adjustments to changing environmental conditions have mainly been obtained through structural and functional comparative studies between taxa or within taxa on contrasting sites or along environmental gradients. Yet, a gap exists regarding the study of hydraulic adjustments in response to environmental changes over the lifetimes of plants. In trees, dated tree-ring series are often exploited to reconstruct dynamics in ecological conditions, and recent work in which wood-anatomical variables have been used in dendrochronology has produced promising results. Environmental signals identified in water-conducting cells carry novel information reflecting changes in regional conditions and are mostly related to short, sub-annual intervals. Although the idea of investigating environmental signals through wood anatomical time series goes back to the 1960s, it is only recently that low-cost computerized image-analysis systems have enabled increased scientific output in this field. We believe that the study of tree-ring anatomy is emerging as a promising approach in tree biology and climate change research, particularly if complemented by physiological and ecological studies. This contribution presents the rationale, the potential, and the methodological challenges of this innovative approach.