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Modeling contribution to risk assessment of thermal production power for geothermal reservoirs
(2013)
Quantifying and minimizing uncertainty is vital for simulating technically and economically successful geothermal reservoirs. To this end, we apply a stochastic modelling sequence, a Monte Carlo study, based on (i) creating an ensemble of possible realizations of a reservoir model, (ii) forward simulation of fluid flow and heat transport, and (iii) constraining post-processing using observed state variables. To generate the ensemble, we use the stochastic algorithm of Sequential Gaussian Simulation and test its potential fitting rock properties, such as thermal conductivity and permeability, of a synthetic reference model and—performing a corresponding forward simulation—state variables such as temperature. The ensemble yields probability distributions of rock properties and state variables at any location inside the reservoir. In addition, we perform a constraining post-processing in order to minimize the uncertainty of the obtained distributions by conditioning the ensemble to observed state variables, in this case temperature. This constraining post-processing works particularly well on systems dominated by fluid flow. The stochastic modelling sequence is applied to a large, steady-state 3-D heat flow model of a reservoir in The Hague, Netherlands. The spatial thermal conductivity distribution is simulated stochastically based on available logging data. Errors of bottom-hole temperatures provide thresholds for the constraining technique performed afterwards. This reduce the temperature uncertainty for the proposed target location significantly from 25 to 12 K (full distribution width) in a depth of 2300 m. Assuming a Gaussian shape of the temperature distribution, the standard deviation is 1.8 K. To allow a more comprehensive approach to quantify uncertainty, we also implement the stochastic simulation of boundary conditions and demonstrate this for the basal specific heat flow in the reservoir of The Hague. As expected, this results in a larger distribution width and hence, a larger, but more realistic uncertainty estimate. However, applying the constraining post-processing the uncertainty is again reduced to the level of the post-processing without stochastic boundary simulation. Thus, constraining post-processing is a suitable tool for reducing uncertainty estimates by observed state variables.
Following earlier studies, we present forward and inverse simulations of heat and fluid transport of the upper crust using a local 3-D model of the Kola area. We provide best estimates for palaeotemperatures and permeabilities, their errors and their dependencies. Our results allow discriminating between the two mentioned processes to a certain extent, partly resolving the non-uniqueness of the problem. We find clear indications for a significant contribution of advective heat transport, which, in turn, imply only slightly lower ground surface temperatures during the last glacial maximum relative to the present value. These findings are consistent with the general background knowledge of (i) the fracture zones and the corresponding fluid movements in the bedrock and (ii) the glacial history of the Kola area.
The management of knowledge in organizations considers both established long-term processes and cooperation in agile project teams. Since knowledge can be both tacit and explicit, its transfer from the individual to the organizational knowledge base poses a challenge in organizations. This challenge increases when the fluctuation of knowledge carriers is exceptionally high. Especially in large projects in which external consultants are involved, there is a risk that critical, company-relevant knowledge generated in the project will leave the company with the external knowledge carrier and thus be lost. In this paper, we show the advantages of an early warning system for knowledge management to avoid this loss. In particular, the potential of visual analytics in the context of knowledge management systems is presented and discussed. We present a project for the development of a business-critical software system and discuss the first implementations and results.
Mass transfer correlation for evaporation–condensation thermal process in the range of 70 °C–95 °C
(2013)
The RoboCup Logistics League (RCLL) is a robotics competition in a production logistics scenario in the context of a Smart Factory. In the competition, a team of three robots needs to assemble products to fulfill various orders that are requested online during the game. This year, the Carologistics team was able to win the competition with a new approach to multi-agent coordination as well as significant changes to the robot’s perception unit and a pragmatic network setup using the cellular network instead of WiFi. In this paper, we describe the major components of our approach with a focus on the changes compared to the last physical competition in 2019.
Having well-defined control strategies for fuel cells, that can efficiently detect errors and take corrective action is critically important for safety in all applications, and especially so in aviation. The algorithms not only ensure operator safety by monitoring the fuel cell and connected components, but also contribute to extending the health of the fuel cell, its durability and safe operation over its lifetime. While sensors are used to provide peripheral data surrounding the fuel cell, the internal states of the fuel cell cannot be directly measured. To overcome this restriction, Kalman Filter has been implemented as an internal state observer.
Other safety conditions are evaluated using real-time data from every connected sensor and corrective actions automatically take place to ensure safety. The algorithms discussed in this paper have been validated thorough Model-in-the-Loop (MiL) tests as well as practical validation at a dedicated test bench.